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Posted

YIKES;

57 Spencer gets that North Korean no one knows about then HARUTYUNYAN 

61 Jax gets Suda(4 but picked 1 or 2) second round if he wins

65 Woods gets #1 Amouzad if he wins

70 PJ has to beat #3 then he probably gets Gomez

Carr yes above

Haines on top with #1

Zahid gates GHASEMPOUR or Kadiev in semis

Hidlay on tough half with #1 and Ishiguro

Snyder should be Ok til semis

Wyatt sees #3 second match then would need to beat Zare in semis

Posted

Brutal draws. We may only see 2-3 medals this year inlcuding the mercenaries. This is about as bad as it could go.

57 Lee gold

61 Jax 0-1 or 1-1, won't get pulled back

65 Seabass has a favorable draw, will need to beat Tevanyan in quarters for a medal because Kiyooka is going to go bonkers. Woods 0-1 or 1-1, 50% he gets pulled back if he can win his first match. Amouzad and Sujeet will be the fire.

70 Duke tough match off the scale 01 or 1-1. Gomez same issue. No medal.

74 Carr has a meat grinder. Hoping for a medal but 74 is always so tough.

79 Haines has a RUS expat from Sadulaev's club off the scale. 2 Asians medalist, won Yasar Dogu last year at 79. Not great! Probably pulled into repechage. Mikey Labs might win his first match, no clue if he will get pulled back.

86 Zahid meets Ghasempour in the quarters. The earlier the better, because Zahid has gas tank issues and Ghas is going to be walking around at 97 the minute weigh-ins are done. Ramos might sneak in a couple wins and be a bracket buster. Where is Amine? Is he really going all-in on the influencer career?

92 Hidlay has the best draw of anyone and has an optimal path to the semis which as long as he doesn't get upset should put him in a medal match or finals... hopefully. Honis on the other hand will likely go 0-1 and not get pulled back in.

97 Snyder has a good path to the finals as long as he doesn't trip on a landmine.

125 Hendrickson opens with the same guy he pinned at U23 worlds with a torn knee. But that match was MUCH closer than the scoreboard said as it was 11-9 with a minute to go. Second match is just as tough, then third match will be savvy old man Sharipov. If he runs that gauntlet, he is graced with Zare's presence. I think he can make it to Zare in the semis to get a bronze, but I would not be surprised by a DNP. Jovan Smith probably 0-1, might go 1-2 if he can pull off a first round upset.

  • Bob 1

i am an idiot on the internet

Posted
23 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Brutal draws. We may only see 2-3 medals this year inlcuding the mercenaries. This is about as bad as it could go.

57 Lee gold

61 Jax 0-1 or 1-1, won't get pulled back

65 Seabass has a favorable draw, will need to beat Tevanyan in quarters for a medal because Kiyooka is going to go bonkers. Woods 0-1 or 1-1, 50% he gets pulled back if he can win his first match. Amouzad and Sujeet will be the fire.

70 Duke tough match off the scale 01 or 1-1. Gomez same issue. No medal.

74 Carr has a meat grinder. Hoping for a medal but 74 is always so tough.

79 Haines has a RUS expat from Sadulaev's club off the scale. 2 Asians medalist, won Yasar Dogu last year at 79. Not great! Probably pulled into repechage. Mikey Labs might win his first match, no clue if he will get pulled back.

86 Zahid meets Ghasempour in the quarters. The earlier the better, because Zahid has gas tank issues and Ghas is going to be walking around at 97 the minute weigh-ins are done. Ramos might sneak in a couple wins and be a bracket buster. Where is Amine? Is he really going all-in on the influencer career?

92 Hidlay has the best draw of anyone and has an optimal path to the semis which as long as he doesn't get upset should put him in a medal match or finals... hopefully. Honis on the other hand will likely go 0-1 and not get pulled back in.

97 Snyder has a good path to the finals as long as he doesn't trip on a landmine.

125 Hendrickson opens with the same guy he pinned at U23 worlds with a torn knee. But that match was MUCH closer than the scoreboard said as it was 11-9 with a minute to go. Second match is just as tough, then third match will be savvy old man Sharipov. If he runs that gauntlet, he is graced with Zare's presence. I think he can make it to Zare in the semis to get a bronze, but I would not be surprised by a DNP. Jovan Smith probably 0-1, might go 1-2 if he can pull off a first round upset.

Zahid has him (or Kadiev) in the semi-finals, not the quarters.

  • Bob 2

"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

Posted
7 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Zahid has him (or Kadiev) in the semi-finals, not the quarters.

Less optimal, but medal match still guaranteed. And unless the cut is really that brutal Ghasempour should dispatch Kadiev by a couple takedowns. I know he's shredded but it really seems like he's just being dramatic about the cut because he hasn't had to do one in a long time.

i am an idiot on the internet

Posted
3 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Less optimal, but medal match still guaranteed. And unless the cut is really that brutal Ghasempour should dispatch Kadiev by a couple takedowns. I know he's shredded but it really seems like he's just being dramatic about the cut because he hasn't had to do one in a long time.

I don't expect Ghasempour to beat Kadiev by a couple of takedowns.  The belief is that Kadiev is the next coming of Sadulaev (if not, better).

  • Bob 1

"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

Posted
1 hour ago, Gene Mills Fan said:

YIKES;

57 Spencer gets that North Korean no one knows about then HARUTYUNYAN 

61 Jax gets Suda(4 but picked 1 or 2) second round if he wins

65 Woods gets #1 Amouzad if he wins

70 PJ has to beat #3 then he probably gets Gomez

Carr yes above

Haines on top with #1

Zahid gates GHASEMPOUR or Kadiev in semis

Hidlay on tough half with #1 and Ishiguro

Snyder should be Ok til semis

Wyatt sees #3 second match then would need to beat Zare in semis

Lee would get the North Korean after Harutyunyan

  • Jagger 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I don't expect Ghasempour to beat Kadiev by a couple of takedowns.  The belief is that Kadiev is the next coming of Sadulaev (if not, better).

We shall see.

i am an idiot on the internet

Posted

57: Lee has the toughest side of the bracket, but he's the best guy in the bracket, period. 

61: Jax has to beat Suda, good chance to get pulled back into repechage if he gets beat by him

65: Woods likely goes down to Amouzad, but he should get pulled back in

70: Duke has reigning world champ match 2, and Gomez is on that side also, but I would anticipate Duke getting into repechage if he can't get by Kaiponov

74: Carr has a brutal draw. Has to beat Valiev and Sidakov to make finals, if he loses to Valiev he needs him to then beat Sidakov to get pulled back in, then would have to beat Sidakov. I think Carr is good enough to medal but not with this draw. 

79: Levi should get pulled back into repechage after Usmanov, not the easiest quad with the Georgian in there as well but not terrible

86: Zahid's isn't too bad, he will be guaranteed a medal match, but Kadiev or Ghas in the semis is rough (and the loser in a potential bronze match)

92: Hidlay will have a tough semi against Kurugliev but he could also see Nurmagomedov, both tough matches but he could win

97: Snyder should make the semi's where he would have a tough but winnable Yoshida or Matcharashvili 

125: Wyatt has a good shot to make the semis and take a shot at Zare, but it won't be a pushover at all. 

I will try to make weight-by-weight predictions later but looking at this, it is not too bad at all. It is never going to be easy at worlds and even though some of our newer guys (Jax, Woods, Duke, Haines) have early tough matches, they all have a reasonable shot at getting pulled back in. 

  • Bob 1
Posted

Let's react fully now

57kg Really lopsided bracket here with multiple medal threats being on Spencer's side. Harutyunyan right away and then a potential Cruz, Han, or RBY match in semis. Maybe Rin, Aman or the Russian to come out the other side. Still expecting a gold for USA, but our biggest rivals in the team race benefit in the way this was drawn. Lee for gold

61kg Yikes. Suda right away essentially, no disrespect South Korea. This might be match of the tournament. If he gets through Suda he has Udit and likely Uguev in the semis to face who in the finals? The other half looks like a desert. Jax's route to a medal is insanely tough. Idk how good Iran's rep is here but if he walks through the bracket and makes the finals vs Uguev and Jax loses to Suda we lose major points. Again we are getting hosed in multiple fashions but the kid is serious, who's with me let's get delusional. Jax for bronze

65kg I mean it can't get much worse with the draw. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibilities that Real beats Amouzad but probably not. So he will likely be pulled into repechage and I think he can medal. All the other hitters are on the other side, like no joke. I have no idea who comes out the other side to face the Iranian. I'll take Seabass. Deep weight and crazy enough I like Real's chances to medal. Real for bronze

70kg I love this for PJ can't lie. He gets a match, no disrespect China, to warm-up then hits the reigning world champ at the weight. I think he will be poised and ready to go. That being said I don't think he gets his hand raised there and then I feel as if Gomez is on a different level and I feel he gets an upset against him in the very next match. There's a path for PJ to medal, heck even win the damn thing, but his side of the bracket is super tough. Look for the semifinal top side with Japan vs Iran likely. One of the deepest weights in the world this year. PJ to DNP

74kg Wow wow wow. Iran and Japan on the other side of Valiev, Sidakov, and Carr. Crazy. Anyways, Carr will have Valiev in the quarters. I don't favor him here as Valiev is reigning world champ and looks to be one of the best p4p in the world imo. Say he slays that beast, he will likely have Sidakov. JB has been training Carr up something fierce, does David have it in him to get through this gauntlet his first run at it? I think no. He probably loses to Valiev and then his shot at a medal will come down to, what would be, the best match at the tournament potentially. Unfortunate for Carr and unfortunate for the team race as one of the two, Japan or Iran, will come out the other side to take silver. Carr to bronze

79kg We are opposite Nokhodi and the Greek that just beat him but hit Usmanov, former world champ, in quarters. Honestly this is the weakest looking weight here and I feel as if that PSU room will have Levi sharp for this run at worlds. I like his chances at a medal here. Go Mikey Labs. Levi for bronze

86kg What a draw this one is. All gold level threats on the same side and finally we get a bone tossed our way, we just face the winner of the other two. Kadiev (RUS) vs Ghasempour (IRI) could be, I know you know it by now, the best match of the tournament. I expect that to be a slug fest. The path to gold is through the top side for sure. Kadzi and Ishiguro on the other side to contend for the finals spot. Even is Zahid loses in the semis, he will medal. Super fun and loaded weight. But for my money, I like Zahid's medal to be gold. Zahid for gold

92kg Trent will walk to the quarters where he will meet the #1 seed from Georgia, a guy he has beaten before. If he makes it through him, which I expect, he will face Kurugliev, Greek transplant from Russia, or Nurmagomedov. Both would give him a tough match but I like his odds to come out the top side. We luckily avoided both Russia's and Iran's rep as they are bottom side but we expect Firouzpour to make it to the final with us. Say it with me, could be match of the tournament. I've been saying it for months, I love Trent's chances and I think he gets it done. Shout out Ben Honis. Trent for gold

97kg Easily the best draw we have all tournament. For the guy that needed a good draw the least. Oof. Kyle's first test will be in the semis vs Yoshida, who beat him in a massive upset earlier, or Matcharashvili. He matches up better against the guy who beat him imo as I think he reverses that result if it were to happen again. The Georgian wrestles him tough, for the team race we want Yoshida to lose but the match vs Matcharashvili worries me. Either way bottom side wrestler is going for silver as Tazhudinov is the #1 seed and the best p4p wrestler in the world right now. Even with Sadulaev in the bracket, Taz wins gold and Kyle medals. Without Sadulaev, give me the same result, Taz wins gold and Kyle's medal will be a silver. I think no matter what he medals. Kyle for Silver

125kg Wyatt will be tested every match we wrestles until he reaches Zare in the semis. We can take out Russia's rep right away. His toughest before Zare is his match in the quarters vs Sharipov. I think he just has too much to not get by those guys, will come down to his inexperience and if he let's that be a factor. I think Zare is p4p one of the best in the world and unfortunately I think the gravy train ends there. Munkhtur is on the other side so his medal chances are skyhigh. I don't think this is his year to get it done. Top half is super boring. Zare will take it all. Wyatt for bronze

Team Race We got f***ed guys. With that being said I have us medaling 9 guys lol. I think the guys who were least likely to medal (Levi and Real) got some nice draws to help them. Of course they need to win in order to achieve the medals but they're odds are up. The guys who were on the fence to medal (Jax, PJ, and Carr) got screwed by their draws. I don't know sh*t about sh*t so we will see. USA to finish runner-ups

  • Bob 1
Posted

Iranian twitter is talking about how USA paid for these draws. Are they terrible? not exactly terrible but they certainly are not good. 79,86,92,97 are really good for us in my opinion the rest kinda blow. 

I am the personal property of VakAttack

Posted
36 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

Iranian twitter is talking about how USA paid for these draws. Are they terrible? not exactly terrible but they certainly are not good. 79,86,92,97 are really good for us in my opinion the rest kinda blow. 

That's loco. Worlds only has two kinds of brackets: bad draws and worse draws. Dream draws are extremely rare - too much talent and too many participants. Not quite the same as smaller olympics brackets that can be lopsided.

i am an idiot on the internet

Posted

My expectations are definitely tapered for this young team after seeing the draws. I hope we do well but this could be a growing year. 

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