Flo's Quarter-Century Team (Recency bias?)

[BAC]

How do we feel about this?  Flo's going through the weights, one at a time.  They just finished 125, now turning to 133.

Personally, I don't have a lot of confidence in their process, since there's definitely some recency bias at work.  Part of that is because it's largely dependent on the fan vote, but Flo's commentators are all pretty young and have a recency bias of their own.  Hard to see the guys in the first half of that 25 years getting a fair shake.

For 125, they had Robles in their final 4 over a number of 2x'ers, and then picked Lee in a landslide. Choosing Lee is defensible, but I'd have picked Abas.  Both are 3x'ers, but I'd take Abas's 4-1-1-1 over Lee's 1-1-1-6, particularly with Abas finishing on a 95 match win streak.  Lee has a couple Hodges, which helps his case, but it's not Abas's fault he existed at the same time as Cael.  (He was runner up to Cael in Hodge voting 2x.)  Lee was better on top (and a higher bonus rate as a result), but if you lived through the Abas era you'd remember how untouchable he was on his feet, and how utterly inconceivable it was that he'd lose.  

For 133, Flo's "final 4" includes none of the 2x'ers from 2000 to 2010 (Thompson, Jurgens, Valenti), but instead includes only the most recent multi-time champs.  I'm guessing Stieber's 4 titles will get him the spot, as it should.  But still, it's a shame the less recent wrestlers are treated as afterthoughts.  It would've been better if Flo called it the "Last 15 Years Team."

Still, it's a fun exercise.  It'll be interesting to see where they serve up wrestlers who spanned multiple weights equally.  

[PortaJohn]

Probably will most likely be recency bias.  Most interested to see what they do with Dake/Taylor.  My guess they'll shaft Nolf and put Dake in at 157 to get Taylor in at 165 even though Dake is the best there was at 165.  Second is what they'll do with Cael.  Brooks at '84 or Cox at '97 will get bumped.  Heavy, do they punish Steveson and put in Snyder? 

Edited June 10 by PortaJohn

[PortaJohn]

1 hour ago, BAC said:

I'm guessing Stieber's 4 titles will get him the spot, as it should.

2023 Vito Arujau is best 133 pounder I've ever seen.  @Jon_Kozak what is the criteria?  

[okokzach]

1 hour ago, BAC said:

How do we feel about this?  Flo's going through the weights, one at a time.  They just finished 125, now turning to 133.

Personally, I don't have a lot of confidence in their process, since there's definitely some recency bias at work.  Part of that is because it's largely dependent on the fan vote, but Flo's commentators are all pretty young and have a recency bias of their own.  Hard to see the guys in the first half of that 25 years getting a fair shake.

For 125, they had Robles in their final 4 over a number of 2x'ers, and then picked Lee in a landslide. Choosing Lee is defensible, but I'd have picked Abas.  Both are 3x'ers, but I'd take Abas's 4-1-1-1 over Lee's 1-1-1-6, particularly with Abas finishing on a 95 match win streak.  Lee has a couple Hodges, which helps his case, but it's not Abas's fault he existed at the same time as Cael.  (He was runner up to Cael in Hodge voting 2x.)  Lee was better on top (and a higher bonus rate as a result), but if you lived through the Abas era you'd remember how untouchable he was on his feet, and how utterly inconceivable it was that he'd lose.  

For 133, Flo's "final 4" includes none of the 2x'ers from 2000 to 2010 (Thompson, Jurgens, Valenti), but instead includes only the most recent multi-time champs.  I'm guessing Stieber's 4 titles will get him the spot, as it should.  But still, it's a shame the less recent wrestlers are treated as afterthoughts.  It would've been better if Flo called it the "Last 15 Years Team."

Still, it's a fun exercise.  It'll be interesting to see where they serve up wrestlers who spanned multiple weights equally.  

I voted Abas but I agree Lee is a fine choice too. But yes, there's clearly a huge recency bias in the fan vote at least. Not because Lee won but because it was a blowout. 

[Mr. PeanutButter]

Spot on. To their credit, they did admit to a recency bias

[BigRedFan]

27 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

2023 Vito Arujau is best 133 pounder I've ever seen.  @Jon_Kozak what is the criteria?  

I've seen every Arujau match he had in his college career (perhaps missing a few that weren't streamed), but I don't think 2023 Arujau is better than 2016 Garrett.  34-0, 70% bonus.  And this:

 

[bnwtwg]

56 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

Probably will most likely be recency bias.  Most interested to see what they do with Dake/Taylor.  My guess they'll shaft Nolf and put Dake in at 157 to get Taylor in at 165 even though Dake is the best there was at 165.  Second is what they'll do with Cael.  Brooks at '84 or Cox at '97 will get bumped.  Heavy, do they punish Steveson and put in Snyder? 

Snyder was better than Steveson by any number of metrics.

 

More NCAA titles, beat better NCAA competition, won more world an Olympic titles while in college, beat objectively better competing at NCAAs multiple years, paved the way for a low-match/ high previous senior level-accolades Hodge, didn't lose his last match, and I'm sure more that I'm not rattling off memory.

That said, Steveson will win their fangirl vote. Thank you for joining my soapbox.

Edited June 10 by bnwtwg

[HarryConnickJr]

At their best, I think JO takes it. A call goes differently and he and Stieber are both 3X’s. I said it after RBY Vito 2023- Vito was the quickest id seen since JO and would love to see the matchup between the two

[PortaJohn]

11 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Snyder was better than Steveson by any number of metrics.

 

More NCAA titles, beat better NCAA competition, won more world an Olympic titles while in college, beat objectively better competing at NCAAs multiple years, paved the way for a low-match/ high previous senior level-accolades Hodge, didn't lose his last match, and I'm sure more that I'm not rattling off memory.

That said, Steveson will win their fangirl vote. Thank you for joining my soapbox.

I don't know about that.  There are an estimated 5 million Johns in the U.S with an additional 2 million portable ones

Edited June 10 by PortaJohn

[BAC]

56 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

Probably will most likely be recency bias.  Most interested to see what they do with Dake/Taylor.  My guess they'll shaft Nolf and put Dake in at 157 to get Taylor in at 165 even though Dake is the best there was at 165.  Second is what they'll do with Cael.  Brooks at '84 or Cox at '97 will get bumped.  Heavy, do they punish Steveson and put in Snyder? 

Jordan Burroughs might have something to say about who was the best 165lber, considering he won worlds just a few months after. Like Taylor and Dake, JB won at multiple weights too. No doubt it gets pretty tight in the middle weights, and I'm sort of expecting Flo to rig the weight choices a bit to steer the results.  Good question about Snyder/Steveson, though it may be moot as I'm half expecting this crowd to pick Wyatt.

[BAC]

36 minutes ago, Mr. PeanutButter said:

Spot on. To their credit, they did admit to a recency bias

Maybe it's just me, but I feel like if they admit their bias they ought to do something about it, or if they won't, then just call it a "last-15-years" team.

There's a lot of early-2000s Hawks that are going to barely be a footnote here, as time has forgotten them.  Juergens, Schwab, even one-loss TJ Williams.  Metcalf probably still retains enough notoriety to make the proverbial finals with Zain, but even that might depend if they stick Yianni at 141 or 149. 

Edited June 10 by BAC

[PortaJohn]

1 minute ago, BAC said:

Jordan Burroughs might have something to say about who was the best 165lber, considering he won worlds just a few months after. Like Taylor and Dake, JB won at multiple weights too. No doubt it gets pretty tight in the middle weights, and I'm sort of expecting Flo to rig the weight choices a bit to steer the results.  Good question about Snyder/Steveson, though it may be moot as I'm half expecting this crowd to pick Wyatt.

Wouldn't be surprised if Burroughs doesn't make the list at '57 or '65.  

[bnwtwg]

12 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

I don't know about that.  There are an estimated 5 million Johns in the U.S with an additional 2 million portable ones

[bnwtwg]

4 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

Wouldn't be surprised if Burroughs doesn't make the list at '57 or '65.  

Burroughs was the best 65 his senior year. I know this because he won a senior world title. Unlike David Taylor who, stop me if you've heard this story before, could only win when a better guy wasn't at his weight anymore. Historical bonus points mean nada.

Edited June 10 by bnwtwg
footer just to remind people this is (mainly) a shiitpost

[PortaJohn]

Just now, bnwtwg said:

Burroughs was the best 65 his senior year. I know this because he won a senior world title. Unlike David Taylor who, stop me if you've heard this story before, could only win when a better guy wasn't at his weight anymore. Historical bonus points mean nada.

Are we using freestyle now because I've seen so many of these silly greatest ever lists and John Smith never gets mentioned in Folk Style

[bnwtwg]

Just now, PortaJohn said:

Are we using freestyle now because I've seen so many of these silly greatest ever lists and John Smith never gets mentioned in Folk Style

Wasn't even the best parallel ride staller in his own family if you ask me

[pokemonster]

7 minutes ago, BAC said:

I guess, but if they admit their bias they ought to do something about it or just call it a last-15-years team. There's a lot of early-2000s Hawks that are going to barely be a footnote here, as time has forgotten them.  Juergens, Schwab, even one-loss TJ Williams.  Metcalf probably still retains enough notoriety to make the proverbial finals with Zain, but even that might depend if they stick Yianni at 141 or 149. 

They should include Stieber at 141 as well. He should win it at both 133 and 141. 

[MPhillips]

27 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Snyder was better than Steveson

[bnwtwg]

8 minutes ago, BAC said:

Maybe it's just me, but I feel like if they admit their bias they ought to do something about it, or if they won't, then just call it a "last-15-years" team.

There's a lot of early-2000s Hawks that are going to barely be a footnote here, as time has forgotten them.  Juergens, Schwab, even one-loss TJ Williams.  Metcalf probably still retains enough notoriety to make the proverbial finals with Zain, but even that might depend if they stick Yianni at 141 or 149. 

TJ Williams only lost one match, but that's because he didn't wrestle frosh year and that counts.

Juergens and Schwab shouldn't make the cut. Look at their historical comps- just not fair and it greatly undermines their talent.

Brent "I lost a match every year, and I lost a year" Metcalf does not belong in the conversation. Sorry not sorry.

[MPhillips]

5 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

stop me if you've heard this story before

 

5 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Edited 3 minutes ago by bnwtwg
footer just to remind people this is (mainly) a shiitpost

Kind of quality none the less...

[BAC]

25 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Snyder was better than Steveson by any number of metrics.

More NCAA titles, beat better NCAA competition, won more world an Olympic titles while in college, beat objectively better competing at NCAAs multiple years, paved the way for a low-match/ high previous senior level-accolades Hodge, didn't lose his last match, and I'm sure more that I'm not rattling off memory.

That said, Steveson will win their fangirl vote. Thank you for joining my soapbox.

I mostly agree with this, but there's sort of a psychological barrier here (besides the fangirl stuff):

1. Do you really think of Snyder as a HWT?

2. Would you really pick Snyder over Gable in a folk match at HWT?  

It's tempting to slot in Snyder at 197, even though he lost in his only finals appearance at that weight. But I assume they'll put him at HWT where he'll be runner up to Gable, and they'll justify it as saying that it doesn't mean Gable was better, only that he was better as a HWT since Snyder's sort of a 'tweener. Not sure I even disagree with that, though it seems crazy for an all-time-great like Snyder to be 2nd team.

[PortaJohn]

2 minutes ago, BAC said:

I mostly agree with this, but there's sort of a psychological barrier here (besides the fangirl stuff):

1. Do you really think of Snyder as a HWT?

2. Would you really pick Snyder over Gable in a folk match at HWT?  

It's tempting to slot in Snyder at 197, even though he lost in his only finals appearance at that weight. But I assume they'll put him at HWT where he'll be runner up to Gable, and they'll justify it as saying that it doesn't mean Gable was better, only that he was better as a HWT since Snyder's sort of a 'tweener. Not sure I even disagree with that, though it seems crazy for an all-time-great like Snyder to be 2nd team.

How does the voting work?  How are they scoring it?

[BAC]

9 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

Are we using freestyle now because I've seen so many of these silly greatest ever lists and John Smith never gets mentioned in Folk Style

I'm pretty sure it's intended to be a pure folkstyle list.  If it weren't, it'd be a sin to not have Cejudo or Gilman on the 125 list, as their freestyle accomplishments are better than anyone else here being considered.

That said, I feel like it's defensible to look to freestyle as one factor to break a tie between two guys from different eras, who have otherwise comparable folkstyle stats.  Especially where they didn't alter their style much from folk to free, and still picked up medals close to their college years.

[MPhillips]

11 minutes ago, BAC said:

1. Do you really think of Snyder as a HWT?

No...

11 minutes ago, BAC said:

2. Would you really pick Snyder over Gable in a folk match at HWT?  

Your questions suck...

I wouldn't disagree with any of the rest...

[PortaJohn]

2 minutes ago, BAC said:

I'm pretty sure it's intended to be a pure folkstyle list.  If it weren't, it'd be a sin to not have Cejudo or Gilman on the 125 list, as their freestyle accomplishments are better than anyone else here being considered.

That said, I feel like it's defensible to look to freestyle as one factor to break a tie between two guys from different eras, who have otherwise comparable folkstyle stats.  Especially where they didn't alter their style much from folk to free, and still picked up medals close to their college years.

ok but Dake 1,1,1,1 is not comparable to Burroughs DNP, 3, 1, 1