1032004 Posted March 18 Posted March 18 On 3/16/2025 at 6:25 PM, Dogbone said: DK put out a line for each weight and has a line for each wrestlers chances. Top 4 at each weight: 125 LL +165, Figs +330 Ramos +400 Strickenburg +600 133 Drake +180 Byrd +300 Bailey +475 Bouzakis +950 141 BB +165 Mendez +225 Hardy +360 AA +475 149 Van Ness +160 Henson +200 Lovett +300 Parco +750 157 Kasak +100 Shapiro +250 Taylor +950 Cannon +1000 165 MM -500 Caliendo +550 Hall +750 Barraclough +1000 174 KOT +110 Levi +150 Hamiti +450 Pinto +1000 184 CStar -200 PK +140 Plott +800 McEnelly +1000 197 AJ +150 Buchanon +300 Cardenes +300 Barr +750 HWT Gable -600 Kerk +425 Wyatt +450 Trephan +1200 I like those odds for Ramos, Alirez and maybe McEnelly 1
Hammerlock3 Posted March 18 Posted March 18 best bet is buchanan "Half measures are a coward's form of insanity."
cowcards Posted March 18 Posted March 18 Don't know how accurate this is... https://unabated.com/articles/college-betting-rules-by-state
Ragu Posted March 18 Posted March 18 13 hours ago, cowcards said: Don't know how accurate this is... https://unabated.com/articles/college-betting-rules-by-state NY rules so annoying
PNWfan Posted March 18 Posted March 18 At 157lbs they have Ethen Miller (#1 seed at BigTen tournament) at 500/1 with the next closest wrestler at 125/1. Not saying Miller will win, but 500/1 for the 1 seed at BigTen's? Seems off. PNWfan
maligned Posted March 18 Posted March 18 12 minutes ago, PNWfan said: At 157lbs they have Ethen Miller (#1 seed at BigTen tournament) at 500/1 with the next closest wrestler at 125/1. Not saying Miller will win, but 500/1 for the 1 seed at BigTen's? Seems off. 70% first round, 50% second round, 10% vs Shapiro, 45% semis, 10% vs Kasak All seems sort of doable until you run the numbers. It's approximately 650:1 that he'll win all 5 in a row. They hedge a bit to protect their butts and land on published odds of 500:1. (I'm guessing they think his real chance is even slightly worse than that 650:1 number to publish at 500:1)
BaldAt23 Posted March 20 Posted March 20 Put $500 on Iowa to finish top 5 for a $125 payout. Easy money
Wrestleknownothing Posted March 20 Posted March 20 28 minutes ago, BaldAt23 said: Put $500 on Iowa to finish top 5 for a $125 payout. Easy money Let me tell you a little story about the 2024 NC State team. They were expected to finish second with a healthy gap to third. With all ten guys qualifying and five of them seeded between #2 and #7, that was some easy money. They finished tied for eleventh. Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
RandolphTJones Posted March 20 Posted March 20 40 minutes ago, BaldAt23 said: Put $500 on Iowa to finish top 5 for a $125 payout. Easy money Not so fast!
ionel Posted March 20 Posted March 20 10 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said: Let me tell you a little story about the 2024 NC State team. They were expected to finish second with a healthy gap to third. With all ten guys qualifying and five of them seeded between #2 and #7, that was some easy money. They finished tied for eleventh. I like story telling time. .
BaldAt23 Posted March 21 Posted March 21 11 hours ago, RandolphTJones said: Not so fast! Worst possible case scenario happened today and they are still in 4th.
BaldAt23 Posted March 21 Posted March 21 11 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said: Let me tell you a little story about the 2024 NC State team. They were expected to finish second with a healthy gap to third. With all ten guys qualifying and five of them seeded between #2 and #7, that was some easy money. They finished tied for eleventh. You can never trust ACC teams in these. Big 10 teams have been battle tested and have less variance at the tournament.
BaldAt23 Posted March 22 Posted March 22 On 3/16/2025 at 6:25 PM, Dogbone said: DK put out a line for each weight and has a line for each wrestlers chances. Top 4 at each weight: 125 LL +165, Figs +330 Ramos +400 Strickenburg +600 133 Drake +180 Byrd +300 Bailey +475 Bouzakis +950 141 BB +165 Mendez +225 Hardy +360 AA +475 149 Van Ness +160 Henson +200 Lovett +300 Parco +750 157 Kasak +100 Shapiro +250 Taylor +950 Cannon +1000 165 MM -500 Caliendo +550 Hall +750 Barraclough +1000 174 KOT +110 Levi +150 Hamiti +450 Pinto +1000 184 CStar -200 PK +140 Plott +800 McEnelly +1000 197 AJ +150 Buchanon +300 Cardenes +300 Barr +750 HWT Gable -600 Kerk +425 Wyatt +450 Trephan +1200 Interesting to look at these odds now
maligned Posted March 25 Posted March 25 On 3/22/2025 at 12:04 AM, BaldAt23 said: Interesting to look at these odds now Two betting favorites took home titles. Implied average number of champs for PSU if the tournament was wrestled 100 times was 3.75. Confirms the sense that the weekend was probably a little bittersweet with only 2 titles.
Wrestleknownothing Posted March 25 Posted March 25 47 minutes ago, maligned said: Two betting favorites took home titles. Implied average number of champs for PSU if the tournament was wrestled 100 times was 3.75. Confirms the sense that the weekend was probably a little bittersweet with only 2 titles. An alternative interpretation is that Draft Kings pays less than true odds. Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
Wrestleknownothing Posted March 25 Posted March 25 On 3/16/2025 at 7:11 PM, Wrestleknownothing said: Nebraska +600 for second seems the value play Too bad I don't bet 1 1 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
maligned Posted March 25 Posted March 25 (edited) 1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said: An alternative interpretation is that Draft Kings pays less than true odds. Actually, exact implied odds here are 3.9 champs. They typically overprice futures by about 8% for favorites and 10-20% for longer shots. If you factor in typical overpricing, genuine expected champs in the view of their algorithm was 3.6. I just split the difference when I quoted 3.75. Edited March 25 by maligned
Wrestleknownothing Posted March 25 Posted March 25 8 minutes ago, maligned said: Actually, exact implied odds here are 3.9 champs. They typically overprice futures by about 8% for favorites and 10-20% for longer shots. If you factor in typical overpricing, genuine expected champs in the view of their algorithm was 3.6. I just split the difference when I quoted 3.75. I mean it in the sense that they are overstating the probabilities which leads to lower payouts. Based on historical seed performance PSU's expected champs was only 2.7. So the odds should have been longer. Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
Gene Mills Fan Posted March 25 Posted March 25 1 minute ago, ionel said: Why do I feel like Wkn is driving a new BMW this week? Because the odds weren't big enough to buy a Mercedes?
ionel Posted March 25 Posted March 25 3 minutes ago, Gene Mills Fan said: Because the odds weren't big enough to buy a Mercedes? No because BMW is the ultimate driving machine as Wkn knows. 1 .
Dogbone Posted March 25 Author Posted March 25 Remember, DK is pricing in an advantage for them, so ideally if they don't get hit with a bunch of bets at once, they don't have any exposure and will make a profit no matter who wins. So while everyone who bet Nebraska to finish 2nd at +600 made a good amount of money. Everyone else who bet Iowa to finish top 3 (or even 2nd) lost more than than the money they had to pay out. I don't know how they effects the implied odds but I suspect it might be the disconnect.
maligned Posted March 25 Posted March 25 1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said: I mean it in the sense that they are overstating the probabilities which leads to lower payouts. Based on historical seed performance PSU's expected champs was only 2.7. So the odds should have been longer. Me too. Favorites' odds in a futures list are usually "overstated" by about 8% so that payouts aren't as high. Longer odds are overstated by 10-20% depending on how far down the list you go. Going strictly on their implied odds, they only paid out as if there should have been 3.9 PSU champs. But that number tells us they thought PSU should have had about 3.6 champs in all reality. Even if we think they overstated the PSU guys by 15% (which would be way higher than normal and throw off the rest of the odds list), they still would have been expected to get 3.3 champs. Historical seeds aren't a bad way of estimating performance expectation, but most of PSU's guys this year would have been expected to win more frequently than a standard individual at their seeds. (e.g. Starocci and Mesenbrink had much higher probabilities of winning than a standard #1, Haines and Van Ness much higher than typical #2 and #3, etc.) The odds reflected that, even once we compensate for their profit-taking overstated probabilities.
maligned Posted March 25 Posted March 25 1 hour ago, Dogbone said: Remember, DK is pricing in an advantage for them, so ideally if they don't get hit with a bunch of bets at once, they don't have any exposure and will make a profit no matter who wins. So while everyone who bet Nebraska to finish 2nd at +600 made a good amount of money. Everyone else who bet Iowa to finish top 3 (or even 2nd) lost more than than the money they had to pay out. I don't know how they effects the implied odds but I suspect it might be the disconnect. Yes, they overstate the actual probabilities significantly--especially for the longer odds--to protect their butts. What I'm saying, though, is that they don't overstate by double...their implied odds here for PSU's champs were 3.9, so I'm saying that even with very, very conservative butt-protecting they expected PSU to win more than 3 titles, on average.
Heather Crull Northeastern, Indiana Class of 2025 Committed to McKendree (Women) Projected Weight: 110
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