Maxwell Smart Posted March 15 Posted March 15 The Hawkeyes will probably extend their streak of having a wrestler in the finals, but will they have a national champion? Ayala has the best shot although Caliendo showed great improvement and Buchanan has wrestled very well all year. There's tough competition in all the weight classes with the extra covid year and some bad ass older dudes and young studs that have no fear. Will be exciting.
Maxwell Smart Posted March 15 Author Posted March 15 Just my opinion. Who do you think has a better shot?
Wrestleknownothing Posted March 15 Posted March 15 Back in late February they were looking at 1 or 2 expected champions. With an 87% chance of one or more. But now that the seeds have come out (and they slipped relative to their rankings), they are looking at 0.6 expected with a 47% chance of one or more. Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
Jimmy Cinnabon Posted March 15 Posted March 15 Iowa is likely to have the same number of champs as Penn State. 1 1
Wrestleknownothing Posted March 15 Posted March 15 3 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: Iowa is likely to have the same number of champs as Penn State. You aren't even trying anymore. 1 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
Kov88 Posted March 15 Posted March 15 Ayala and Buchanan have the best chance as you said…. Caliendo can’t get past MM. Ayala looked good against Bryd until he didn’t and Buchanan has been #1 most of the year until B10’s…. The top 4 at 97’ all have a chance but I don’t think Buchanan gets it done, if I had to pick one horse in the race it’d be Drake
Jimmy Cinnabon Posted March 15 Posted March 15 40 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said: You aren't even trying anymore. I think both have 2.
Wrestleknownothing Posted March 15 Posted March 15 7 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: I think both have 2. Wrestlestat thinks we are both wrong. Someone ran every match through their tool and it came up with 1 champ for PSU and 0 for Iowa. Both teams' nightmare scenario. Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
BarSeries Posted March 15 Posted March 15 1 hour ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: Iowa is likely to have the same number of champs as Penn State. Possible. Iowa on their best with 2 and PSU on their worst with 2.
MLB9 Posted March 15 Posted March 15 1 hour ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: Iowa is likely to have the same number of champs as Penn State. By using the word “likely” you are using probability, and inherently objectiveness, and that is just not a fact. Wkn’s done all the work for you already. You’ve done so well this last week, now I’m concerned again.
Boring Posted March 15 Posted March 15 I think Iowa will have one, maybe two champs. I think Ayala beats Byrd next time they wrestle, and I think Buchanon has a 33% chance of becoming champ.
Boring Posted March 15 Posted March 15 For PSU I have Lilledahl, Bartlett, Kasak, Starocci winning NCs.
BarSeries Posted March 15 Posted March 15 8 minutes ago, 666 said: For PSU I have Lilledahl, Bartlett, Kasak, Starocci winning NCs. No MM. Interesting.
Boring Posted March 15 Posted March 15 3 minutes ago, BarSeries said: No MM. Interesting. Oh yeah, lol. I guess he's been entrenched in my memory as NC so long that the trail got dusted over. Yeah, counting him that's 5. 1
Wrestleknownothing Posted March 15 Posted March 15 10 minutes ago, 666 said: For PSU I have Lilledahl, Bartlett, Kasak, Starocci winning NCs. Four seems high end to me. Based on norms 2.7 is the number. Based on PSU's norm 4.5 is the number. But this team doesn't have the same hammer element as past teams. So I am going with 3 or 4. Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
1032004 Posted March 15 Posted March 15 55 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said: Wrestlestat thinks we are both wrong. Someone ran every match through their tool and it came up with 1 champ for PSU and 0 for Iowa. Both teams' nightmare scenario. Who out of Starocci or Mesenbrink didn’t win?
Wrestleknownothing Posted March 15 Posted March 15 18 minutes ago, 1032004 said: Who out of Starocci or Mesenbrink didn’t win? Starocci lost Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
Wrestleknownothing Posted March 15 Posted March 15 1 hour ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said: I think both have 2. If that happened it would probably be the best job Brands has ever done, as they would need to significantly outperform their seeds (not an Iowa trait under Brands), combined with the worst job Sanderaon has ever donw, as they would need to significantly underperform their seeds (not a PSU trait under Sanderson). 1 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
Wrestleknownothing Posted March 15 Posted March 15 23 minutes ago, 1032004 said: Who out of Starocci or Mesenbrink didn’t win? Thread 'Wrestlestat Tournament Simulation' https://pennstate.forums.rivals.com/threads/wrestlestat-tournament-simulation.359089/ Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
MLB9 Posted March 15 Posted March 15 2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said: If that happened it would probably be the best job Brands has ever done, as they would need to significantly outperform their seeds (not an Iowa trait under Brands), combined with the worst job Sanderaon has ever donw, as they would need to significantly underperform their seeds (not a PSU trait under Sanderson). Can you calculate the likelihood of that outcome(both having two) based on your expectations of 2.7 and .6? You’d have to run it off the same distributions and standard deviations you used to find those numbers in the first place, right? For the record, I’m taking the over for both of 3 and 1
Wrestleknownothing Posted March 15 Posted March 15 20 minutes ago, MLB9 said: Can you calculate the likelihood of that outcome(both having two) based on your expectations of 2.7 and .6? You’d have to run it off the same distributions and standard deviations you used to find those numbers in the first place, right? For the record, I’m taking the over for both of 3 and 1 Based on these distributions the answer is 2.5% (9.1% x 27.7%). But that overstates it a bit as these are not independent events (any Iowa win is a denied opportunity for PSU to win, and vice versa), but I do not think the impact is huge, call it between 1.5% and 2%. Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge
Gene Mills Fan Posted March 15 Posted March 15 (edited) 1 hour ago, BarSeries said: Possible. Iowa on their best with 2 and PSU on their worst with 2. Think you're right but PSU never is at its worst. I think Starocci , Mesenbrink, Kasak all get it done. Caliendo would need the best match of his life and Mesenbrink at 80-85% If Drake and Buchanon wrestle their best every match they win. If they are at 85-95 % execution they get beat. Edited March 15 by Gene Mills Fan
11986 Posted March 15 Posted March 15 Iowa - in order of most likely to make a final: Caliendo, Ayala, Buchanan In order of most likely to win: Ayala, Buchanan, Caliendo 3
wrestle87 Posted March 15 Posted March 15 1 hour ago, 11986 said: Iowa - in order of most likely to make a final: Caliendo, Ayala, Buchanan In order of most likely to win: Ayala, Buchanan, Caliendo Here I showed up to write a post, and you did it far more succinctly than I would have. 1
Co'ji Campbell St. Joseph Catholic Academy, Wisconsin Class of 2025 Committed to Illinois Projected Weight: 125, 133
Jackson Albert Saucon Valley, Pennsylvania Class of 2025 Committed to George Mason Projected Weight: 149, 157
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