Hawkeye national champion

[MLB9]

  On 3/15/2025 at 4:54 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Based on these distributions the answer is 2.5% (9.1% x 27.7%). But that overstates it a bit as these are not independent events (any Iowa win is a denied opportunity for PSU to win, and vice versa), but I do not think the impact is huge, call it between 1.5% and 2%.

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You’re a data wizard, we’re doing a basic probability and statistics unit at school right now and I show the kids some of your work. We have a Penn State, Iowa, and DT/OSU fan all in class so they like to see the stats. Well, one of them these days for sure lol. I always be sure to give credit and copyright to wrestleknoweverything

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 3/15/2025 at 8:05 PM, MLB9 said:

You’re a data wizard, we’re doing a basic probability and statistics unit at school right now and I show the kids some of your work. We have a Penn State, Iowa, and DT/OSU fan all in class so they like to see the stats. Well, one of them these days for sure lol. I always be sure to give credit and copyright to wrestleknoweverything

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Too kind.

Mine is an applied course in how to waste time with statistics.

[CHROMEBIRD]

Bit of a long shot but I'd love to see Kennedy and Arnold make a deep runs at NCAAs and finish with high AAs, just because there aren't enough question marks and drama about 174/184 at Iowa for next season. Seriously though, it would be nice to see them finish the tournament strong and stand their ground at their spots in the lineup, or at least up their stock for one to land a worthwhile transfer deal.

[1032004]

  On 3/15/2025 at 4:24 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Thread 'Wrestlestat Tournament Simulation' https://pennstate.forums.rivals.com/threads/wrestlestat-tournament-simulation.359089/

 

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Oh yeah forgot they had Keckeisen rated higher than Starocci, which @ionel thinks is accurate 

[ionel]

  On 3/15/2025 at 9:03 PM, 1032004 said:

Oh yeah forgot they had Keckeisen rated higher than Starocci, which @ionel thinks is accurate 

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See ... even @Wrestleknownothing and his happy valley cohorts agree.  I rest my case. 

[WrestlingRasta]

  On 3/15/2025 at 2:04 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Back in late February they were looking at 1 or 2 expected champions. With an 87% chance of one or more.

 

But now that the seeds have come out (and they slipped relative to their rankings), they are looking at 0.6 expected with a 47% chance of one or more.

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Do they have just as ‘good’ a chance to having no one in the finals, as they do in having a champ? 

[Wrestleknownothing]

  19 hours ago, WrestlingRasta said:

Do they have just as ‘good’ a chance to having no one in the finals, as they do in having a champ? 

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No, the chances of at least one champ are 46.9% and the chances of no one in the finals are only 14.7%. That makes sense since you would need a high probability of being in the finals (85.3%) to have a even-ish chance to win a title or two.

But one thing to keep in mind with all these probabilities is that any of this stuff could still happen. It is good to remember that based on their seeds the 2001 Minnesota team had a 0.8% chance of ten AA's. Yet they had 10 AA's.

Edited 18 hours ago by Wrestleknownothing