boilermaker5 Posted 7 hours ago Posted 7 hours ago 4 hours ago, jchapman said: Plus, wrestling is a timed event, whereas volleyball is a first to so many points event. So matches that are close in score at the end can reflect a strategy of the leading wrestler allowing the losing wrestler to score meaningless points as time runs out. There is no such strategy in volleyball. Hi Pablo! I think jchapman has a good take when comparing results. To me, wrestling is much more binary win/loss, and that is probably the best indicator. Some wrestlers can win a LOT of matches 4-1, whereas others have much more offence. When trying to apply an algorithm based on score, you would think that those who shoot/score a lot would be better (wins by Major/TF more), but in reality/head to head, that one takedown wrestler who is almost impossible to score on may be favored. When trying to predict a win/loss head to head, scoring margins like that aren't going to be the case. If I had to guess, the most predictive model will weigh the win/loss more heavily in wrestling than in volleyball. I would be very interested to see what is more accurate in the tournament, this Pablo model, an ELO model, or rankings like Intermat, and that shouldn't bee TOO difficult of a comparison to make, who is ranked higher on what model, and was the prediction correct. The only problem there will likely be a small sample size (models will likely favor the same wrestler in most cases). Good luck! and finally, you probably have, but have you looked at wrestlestat? they've got a very similar model going: https://www.wrestlestat.com/faq#:~:text=The algorithm factors in the,that have fewer total matches.
cowcards Posted 6 hours ago Posted 6 hours ago Great work Pablo, I'm always a fan of more data. I would love to see what your model ranks if you didn't weigh pins. I think wrestling is unique in with these elo type models because pins can happen at any time with no regard to ability and that it doesn't matter if you win by 1 or 15. You just have to win. There are plenty of guys that don't stack up points even though they could if it was a first to 15 points instead.
Idaho Posted 5 hours ago Posted 5 hours ago 7 hours ago, Pablo said: How did you determine that? I have data that informs the value of a pin. You are making things up. I have determined that an undefeated wrestler who beat another wrestler by major decision is ranked and seeded higher than that other wrestler because of logic and because 100% of all ranking outlets and seeding criteria agree. Sponsored by INTERMAT
jmoney Posted 43 minutes ago Posted 43 minutes ago 11 hours ago, TylerDurden said: Counterpoint: you decided that a pin is more valuable in every situation for your calculation. Wrestling isn't the same as volleyball. A pin can happen for reasons other than domination - people get caught while leading, etc. In volleyball, you can't get caught. If you lose a set 25-14, you got smacked. I think that's where your system will fall apart when trying to make it work for wrestling. Good point- wrestling is very challenging to rank because injuries are so common and influence records impactfully. I'd argue using prior All-American and NCAA match performances would be helpful but then you'd have to compare weight class changes, health histories, the amount of data needed to accurately assess this stuff borders on the most ridiculous manual labor ever. I recently spent 8 hours analyzing who was the best pound for pound wrestlers. Here is what I came up with; it was exhausting. I accidentally called Bonus victories "majors" in my rankings. 1.Gable Steveson (data adjusted for match count) Top 40 Majors 5 Top 15 Wins 5 Best Win Ranking 7 Tech Rank 1 Team Points Rank 3 Top 15 Majors 5 Bonus Rate 100 Best Major Ranking 7 2. Mitchell Mesenbrink Top 40 Majors 7 Top 15 Wins 1 Best Win Ranking 2 Tech Rank 1 Team Points Rank 3 Top 15 Majors 1 Bonus Rate 100 Best Major Ranking 2 3. Parker Keckeisen Top 40 Majors 8 Top 15 Wins 5 Best Win Ranking 4 Tech Rank 3 Team Points Rank 5 Top 15 Majors 3 Bonus Rate 90 Best Major Ranking 4 4. Carter Starocci Top 40 Majors 5 Top 15 Wins 4 Best Win Ranking 3 Tech Rank N/A Team Points Rank 2 Top 15 Majors 3 Bonus Rate 94 Best Major Ranking 9 5. Stephen Buchanan Top 40 Majors 8 Top 15 Wins 7 Best Win Ranking 3 Tech Rank N/A Team Points Rank 4 Top 15 Majors 3 Bonus Rate 79 Best Major Ranking 9 6. Wyatt Hendrickson Top 40 Majors 6 Top 15 Wins 4 Best Win Ranking 5 Tech Rank N/A Team Points Rank 1 Top 15 Majors 2 Bonus Rate 89 Best Major Ranking 5 7. Josh Barr (1 loss to 1st ranked) Top 40 Majors 7 Top 15 Wins 4 Best Win Ranking 2 Tech Rank N/A Team Points Rank 8 Top 15 Majors 2 Bonus Rate 83 Best Major Ranking 7 8. Jesse Mendez (1 loss to 1st ranked) Top 40 Majors 6 Top 15 Wins 7 Best Win Ranking 5 Tech Rank N/A Team Points Rank N/A Top 15 Majors 4 Bonus Rate 75 Best Major Ranking 6 9. Dean Hamiti Top 40 Majors 7 Top 15 Wins 4 Best Win Ranking 10 Tech Rank N/A Team Points Rank 10 Top 15 Majors 2 Bonus Rate 74 Best Major Ranking 10 10. Michael Caliendo (1 loss to 1st ranked) Top 40 Majors 8 Top 15 Wins 5 Best Win Ranking 7 Tech Rank N/A Team Points Rank N/A Top 15 Majors 2 Bonus Rate 74 Best Major Ranking 9 11. Max McEnelly Top 40 Majors 3 Top 15 Wins 4 Best Win Ranking 7 Tech Rank 3 Team Points Rank 7 Top 15 Majors 2 Bonus Rate 83 Best Major Ranking 9 12. Keegan O’Toole Top 40 Majors 3 Top 15 Wins 2 Best Win Ranking 2 Tech Rank N/A Team Points Rank N/A Top 15 Majors 1 Bonus Rate 92 Best Major Ranking 10 13. Shane Van Ness (1 loss to 4th ranked) Top 40 Majors 5 Top 15 Wins 4 Best Win Ranking 3 Tech Rank N/A Team Points Rank N/A Top 15 Majors 3 Bonus Rate 78 Best Major Ranking 3 14. Matt Ramos Top 40 Majors 2 Top 15 Wins 5 Best Win Ranking 3 Tech Rank 2 Team Points Rank 6 Top 15 Majors 1 Bonus Rate 78 Best Major Ranking 11 15. Caleb Henson Top 40 Majors 3 Top 15 Wins 3 Best Win Ranking 4 Tech Rank N/A Team Points Rank N/A Top 15 Majors 2 Bonus Rate 75 Best Major Ranking 14 16. Greg Kerkvliet Top 40 Majors 2 Top 15 Wins 3 Best Win Ranking 11 Tech Rank N/A Team Points Rank N/A Top 15 Majors 1 Bonus Rate 81 Best Major Ranking 15 17. Owen Trephan Top 40 Majors 3 Top 15 Wins 2 Best Win Ranking 6 Tech Rank N/A Team Points Rank 9 Top 15 Majors 0 Bonus Rate 78 Best Major Ranking 28 18. Brock Hardy (3 losses to 1st, 8th & 9th ranked) Top 40 Majors 4 Top 15 Wins 4 Best Win Ranking 5 Tech Rank N/A Team Points Rank N/A Top 15 Majors 2 Bonus Rate Best Major Ranking 5 19. Terell Barraclough (1 loss to 30th ranked) Top 40 Majors 3 Top 15 Wins 5 Best Win Ranking 4 Tech Rank N/A Team Points Rank N/A Top 15 Majors 0 Bonus Rate 58 Best Major Ranking 18 20. Isaac Trumble (3 losses to 2nd, 2nd and 6th ranked) Top 40 Majors 7 Top 15 Wins 4 Best Win Ranking 6 Tech Rank N/A Team Points Rank N/A Top 15 Majors 1 Bonus Rate 68 Best Major Ranking 6 21. Peyton Hall (1 loss to 3rd ranked) Top 40 Majors 4 Top 15 Wins 4 Best Win Ranking 7 Tech Rank 9 Team Points Rank N/A Top 15 Majors 0 Bonus Rate 59 Best Major Ranking 17 Honorable Mention: Mullen, Cardenas, Alirez, Kasak, Plott, pinto, Ferrari, Beard, Haines, little, Stout
Xavier Dombkowski Fort LeBoeuf, Pennsylvania Class of 2025 Committed to Mercyhurst Projected Weight: 149, 157
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