Hammerlock3 Posted August 9 Posted August 9 9 minutes ago, Caveira said: If you need a study to understand people committing violent crimes at a young age are more likely to commit violent crime at a later age. Well man. I don’t know what to tell you. I would google it. There are prolly tons. But for now I’m gonna not do that Charming attempt to retcon the conversation. You do need a study if you are going to reference statistics meaningfully. Just admit a semantic error and move on. "Half measures are a coward's form of insanity."
Caveira Posted August 9 Posted August 9 13 minutes ago, Hammerlock3 said: Charming attempt to retcon the conversation. You do need a study if you are going to reference statistics meaningfully. Just admit a semantic error and move on. Elaborating on the Effects of Early Offending: a Study of Factors that Mediate the Impact of Onset Age on Long-Term Trajectories of Criminal Behavior Published: 27 February 2015 Volume 1, pages 63–86 (2015) Cite this article Download PDF Save article View saved research Journal of Developmental and Life-Course CriminologyAims and scopeSubmit manuscript Download PDF Shaun M. Gann, Christopher J. Sullivan & Omeed S. Ilchi 5624 Accesses 17 Citations Explore all metrics Abstract Purpose Age of onset is one of the strongest predictors of long-term, continuous offending, with the prognosis worsening with an earlier start. In and of itself, onset age is just a marker and not a mechanism affecting behavioral trajectories. In this study, we examine the direct and mediated relationship between age of onset and other individual and social influences as they jointly affect long-term offending trajectories. Methods This study utilizes longitudinal data from the Pathways to Desistance Study of serious young offenders in two major US cities (n = 792). Latent class growth models are estimated, and then, the direct and mediated impact of onset age in explaining variation in those trends is tested. Results A four class model provides the best fit to the data. Analyses indicate that most of the potential mediators do help to predict most likely class membership. After accounting for the mediation process, onset age maintains its significant direct effect on class membership for only the low, no offending class, and there are significant indirect effects present in the other models. Conclusions The findings support a mixed perspective on continuity in offending: age of onset seems to be a marker for high delinquent propensity and related choices (e.g., association with delinquent peers), which reflects a population heterogeneity perspective, but it also may be an early link in a chain of causal mechanisms that increases the likelihood of becoming a serious long-term offender (i.e., state dependence).
Hammerlock3 Posted August 9 Posted August 9 10 hours ago, Caveira said: Elaborating on the Effects of Early Offending: a Study of Factors that Mediate the Impact of Onset Age on Long-Term Trajectories of Criminal Behavior Published: 27 February 2015 Volume 1, pages 63–86 (2015) Cite this article Download PDF Save article View saved research Journal of Developmental and Life-Course CriminologyAims and scopeSubmit manuscript Download PDF Shaun M. Gann, Christopher J. Sullivan & Omeed S. Ilchi 5624 Accesses 17 Citations Explore all metrics Abstract Purpose Age of onset is one of the strongest predictors of long-term, continuous offending, with the prognosis worsening with an earlier start. In and of itself, onset age is just a marker and not a mechanism affecting behavioral trajectories. In this study, we examine the direct and mediated relationship between age of onset and other individual and social influences as they jointly affect long-term offending trajectories. Methods This study utilizes longitudinal data from the Pathways to Desistance Study of serious young offenders in two major US cities (n = 792). Latent class growth models are estimated, and then, the direct and mediated impact of onset age in explaining variation in those trends is tested. Results A four class model provides the best fit to the data. Analyses indicate that most of the potential mediators do help to predict most likely class membership. After accounting for the mediation process, onset age maintains its significant direct effect on class membership for only the low, no offending class, and there are significant indirect effects present in the other models. Conclusions The findings support a mixed perspective on continuity in offending: age of onset seems to be a marker for high delinquent propensity and related choices (e.g., association with delinquent peers), which reflects a population heterogeneity perspective, but it also may be an early link in a chain of causal mechanisms that increases the likelihood of becoming a serious long-term offender (i.e., state dependence). Oh wow! my claim that studies don't exist has been debunked! "Half measures are a coward's form of insanity."
1032004 Posted August 9 Posted August 9 21 hours ago, juniorvarsity said: I don't care if he hit a 16 year old. It's two high school kids. Anyone saying otherwise is not being fair to the situation. They're both in high school. Law says otherwise, I don't care. It's just a fight. People make too big if a deal out of fight. Nobody got very hurt. This whole thing is dumb. Charging him was dumb. DQ’ing him for the postseason wasn’t. 3
ScarletKnight Posted August 10 Posted August 10 On 8/8/2026 at 9:13 PM, Caveira said: Instead he jumped into the stands and assaulted a minor. A blatant violation of the rules that cost him a 4th state title. I’ll bet he has a violent outburst down the road in college as well. His role model has dui and fighting arrests so it’s prolly not a huge secret where he gets it from. Who are you referring to as his role model? Also in his only HS loss, he wanted to fight that kid after the match, following him around and challenging him to a fight. He will do well at Rutgers and if he loses in college, I think it will get very physical.
LJB Posted August 10 Posted August 10 knox has been hulk smashed overseas this year with no incident... the drama llamas are in full effect on this kid... 1
GimJustafan Posted August 10 Posted August 10 4 minutes ago, ScarletKnight said: Who are you referring to as his role model? Also in his only HS loss, he wanted to fight that kid after the match, following him around and challenging him to a fight. He will do well at Rutgers and if he loses in college, I think it will get very physical. I think you mean when he loses / young Austin DeSanto type antics will ensue
ScarletKnight Posted August 10 Posted August 10 1 hour ago, GimJustafan said: I think you mean when he loses / young Austin DeSanto type antics will ensue I guess everyone loses but he won't lose very often. Yes I think he will make any loses personal and then avenge them.
Caveira Posted August 10 Posted August 10 1 hour ago, ScarletKnight said: Who are you referring to as his role model? Also in his only HS loss, he wanted to fight that kid after the match, following him around and challenging him to a fight. He will do well at Rutgers and if he loses in college, I think it will get very physical. His father has arrests for both dui and fighting in public (prior to this)
ScarletKnight Posted August 10 Posted August 10 2 minutes ago, Caveira said: His father has arrests for both dui and fighting in public (prior to this) oh ok. I assume DUI a long time ago.
Caveira Posted August 10 Posted August 10 Just now, ScarletKnight said: oh ok. I assume DUI a long time ago. No idea on that
juniorvarsity Posted August 11 Posted August 11 On 8/8/2026 at 1:55 PM, Caveira said: If Aj Ferrari did this in high school would the public react differently? statistically speaking kids that behave this way in high school have a higher % chance of going to prison Did you just make up a statistic? Do you think Anthony Knox is going to end up in prison? Kids get in fights. It's normal. No, I would not care if AJ Ferrari got in a fight in high school. Did you not get into a fight in high school?
Caveira Posted August 11 Posted August 11 1 minute ago, juniorvarsity said: Did you just make up a statistic? Do you think Anthony Knox is going to end up in prison? Kids get in fights. It's normal. No, I would not care if AJ Ferrari got in a fight in high school. Did you not get into a fight in high school? Did I put a number next to the %. Then answer that on you own
ionel Posted August 11 Posted August 11 1 minute ago, juniorvarsity said: Did you just make up a statistic? Do you think Anthony Knox is going to end up in prison? Kids get in fights. It's normal. No, I would not care if AJ Ferrari got in a fight in high school. Did you not get into a fight in high school? No its not normal. Vast majority dont get in fights. 1 .
juniorvarsity Posted August 11 Posted August 11 3 minutes ago, Caveira said: Did I put a number next to the %. Then answer that on you own Sorry, you made up a fun fact.
Caveira Posted August 11 Posted August 11 1 minute ago, juniorvarsity said: Sorry, you made up a fun fact. You think people guilty of assault in high school do not have a a higher % chance to offend Later in life vs people with no convictions and good parents? this Especially with a drunk driving, public fighting father of a role model? Are you 14? 1
juniorvarsity Posted August 11 Posted August 11 11 minutes ago, Caveira said: You think people guilty of assault in high school do not have a a higher % chance to offend Later in life vs people with no convictions and good parents? this Especially with a drunk driving, public fighting father of a role model? Are you 14? Do you think Anthony Knox will end up in prison? And why are we bringing his parents into this? I'm not 14, but I guess I'm just a trashy person to think kids get in fights and it shouldn't be police matter.
Caveira Posted August 11 Posted August 11 (edited) 6 minutes ago, juniorvarsity said: Do you think Anthony Knox will end up in prison? And why are we bringing his parents into this? I'm not 14, but I guess I'm just a trashy person to think kids get in fights and it shouldn't be police matter. I’ve no idea. I only said someone convicted of what he was convicted of has a higher % chance of re offending later in life than someone who wasn’t. do you think he will? Where do you think they (father / son) learned how to assault someone in the prone position after already losing the fight? Do you think parents with multiple awful arrests… that their kids are more likely to follow that path than not ? Are you from Jersey? Do u know snookie? Do you know the pinto? Edited August 11 by Caveira
Simpleman424 Posted August 11 Posted August 11 17 minutes ago, juniorvarsity said: Do you think Anthony Knox will end up in prison? And why are we bringing his parents into this? I'm not 14, but I guess I'm just a trashy person to think kids get in fights and it shouldn't be police matter. Boy I’m going to complicate this even more because I too think kids get in fights and police can be left out of it (as a general rule). But I also think he’s certainly at a higher risk of being an offender of either a driving or physical related offense in his future because it’s seemingly been normalized in his life. Then again he could look at his dad and say my dads a drunk anger riddled little man and I gotta stick up for him but not following the same path…he’s from Jersey though so ayyy yooo!
juniorvarsity Posted August 11 Posted August 11 57 minutes ago, Caveira said: I’ve no idea. I only said someone convicted of what he was convicted of has a higher % chance of re offending later in life than someone who wasn’t. do you think he will? Where do you think they (father / son) learned how to assault someone in the prone position after already losing the fight? Do you think parents with multiple awful arrests… that their kids are more likely to follow that path than not ? Are you from Jersey? Do u know snookie? Do you know the pinto? Convicted of disorderly conduct. This is just gross talking about him and his parents like this. His dad is likely current or former issues with alcohol. Just because Anthony got in a fight doesn't mean you need to dump all this stuff on his name over it. What else has Anthony done? And I'm far from NJ.
1032004 Posted August 11 Posted August 11 31 minutes ago, juniorvarsity said: Convicted of disorderly conduct. This is just gross talking about him and his parents like this. His dad is likely current or former issues with alcohol. Just because Anthony got in a fight doesn't mean you need to dump all this stuff on his name over it. What else has Anthony done? And I'm far from NJ. I have no idea, but when they did the Flo video thing and basically didn’t show any remorse that wasn’t a good look IMO
Caveira Posted August 11 Posted August 11 53 minutes ago, juniorvarsity said: Convicted of disorderly conduct. This is just gross talking about him and his parents like this. His dad is likely current or former issues with alcohol. Just because Anthony got in a fight doesn't mean you need to dump all this stuff on his name over it. What else has Anthony done? And I'm far from NJ. Well he jumped in the stands and helped assault a minor for starters. Is that a start or no? Is that role model behavior? I dunno.
ScarletKnight Posted August 11 Posted August 11 2 hours ago, 1032004 said: I have no idea, but when they did the Flo video thing and basically didn’t show any remorse that wasn’t a good look IMO I think failing to apologize made everything worse and is why it's being pursued for so long. I am not sure why a lawyer didn't advise that - and I think early on he denied punching someone entirely
juniorvarsity Posted August 11 Posted August 11 8 hours ago, Caveira said: Well he jumped in the stands and helped assault a minor for starters. Is that a start or no? Is that role model behavior? I dunno. I have already said I could care less if the kid was under 18. He hit a kid engaged in a fight around his dad. When you're hitting people, you can expect to get hit too. Is it role model behavior? My understanding, his dad entered the stands to confront some disrespectful fans and got pushed down the stands. Punches were being thrown and he got in on it.
Caveira Posted August 11 Posted August 11 1 hour ago, juniorvarsity said: I have already said I could care less if the kid was under 18. He hit a kid engaged in a fight around his dad. When you're hitting people, you can expect to get hit too. Is it role model behavior? My understanding, his dad entered the stands to confront some disrespectful fans and got pushed down the stands. Punches were being thrown and he got in on it. Disrespectful fans lol …. You don’t need to enter the stands to confront them. There is that role model behavior again. 1
Jackson Lininger Northern York, Pennsylvania Class of 2027 Committed to Slippery Rock Projected Weight: 149
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now