Cael Sanderson individual NCAA titles as a coach

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 hours ago, Tigerfan said:

Terribly sorry WKN, but I’m too busy to help bake the bread, but I will help eat it. 

I understand. You don't like tough wrestling (research).

In spite of that, I have amended the table to show unique AA's and average number of AA's per wrestler for the five coaches @fishbane listed in his post:

You might note two other changes. When I compiled the data I only came up with 145 AA's for John Smith even though his bio on the Oklahoma State website says 150. And I came up with 111 AA's for Bobby Douglas rather than the 110 listed. Something to look into.

[Tigerfan]

Brian Smith has coached at Mizzou since 1998. I’d love to see his numbers in the table if you have them. 
 

So, bottom line is Gable is superior to Sanderson as a coach, unless PSU actually does much better for the next 5-10 years than they have recently. Hard to imagine, really. Surely PSU can’t get much better, Unless of course they dig even deeper into their RTC funds to supplement things. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

57 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I understand. You don't like tough wrestling (research).

In spite of that, I have amended the table to show unique AA's and average number of AA's per wrestler for the five coaches @fishbane listed in his post:

You might note two other changes. When I compiled the data I only came up with 145 AA's for John Smith even though his bio on the Oklahoma State website says 150. And I came up with 111 AA's for Bobby Douglas rather than the 110 listed. Something to look into.

I am claiming the victory here. I think John Smith has 145 AA's on his resume, not the 150 claimed in his official OSU bio. I have him at 134 through the 2019 season which matches the total the NCAA reports in this article that has stats through the 2019 season:

https://www.ncaa.com/news/wrestling/article/2020-07-29/oklahoma-state-wrestling-championships-history-statistics

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

9 minutes ago, Tigerfan said:

Brian Smith has coached at Mizzou since 1998. I’d love to see his numbers in the table if you have them. 
 

So, bottom line is Gable is superior to Sanderson as a coach, unless PSU actually does much better for the next 5-10 years than they have recently. Hard to imagine, really. Surely PSU can’t get much better, Unless of course they dig even deeper into their RTC funds to supplement things. 

31 unique AA's, 62 total AA's.

[Wrestleknownothing]

[jchapman]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

31 unique AA's, 62 total AA's.

Isn't Cox a 4X AA?

[MPhillips]

2 minutes ago, jchapman said:

Isn't Cox a 4X AA?

14, 15, 16, 17 I believe.

[Wrestleknownothing]

23 minutes ago, jchapman said:

Isn't Cox a 4X AA?

He is. And he is in there as a 3x and a 1x. There must be an extra space in the line with 1x. I will fix that.

So now the Brian Smith unique AA's are 30, but still 62 total AA's.

[bnwtwg]

28 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

He is. And he is in there as a 3x and a 1x. There must be an extra space in the line with 1x. I will fix that.

So now the Brian Smith unique AA's are 30, but still 62 total AA's.

tsk tsk all that hard work and a lil ol' =concat did you in

[Wrestleknownothing]

12 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

tsk tsk all that hard work and a lil ol' =concat did you in

So here is the weird thing. There were no extra spaces. But somewhere deep in the bowels of machine readable characters there was some difference. So I just replaced the one with the other and all is right with the Tigers world.

[fishbane]

On 1/19/2023 at 11:31 AM, Wrestleknownothing said:

I understand. You don't like tough wrestling (research).

In spite of that, I have amended the table to show unique AA's and average number of AA's per wrestler for the five coaches @fishbane listed in his post:

You might note two other changes. When I compiled the data I only came up with 145 AA's for John Smith even though his bio on the Oklahoma State website says 150. And I came up with 111 AA's for Bobby Douglas rather than the 110 listed. Something to look into.

I took that number from John Smith's bio.  OSU has a list of AAs in wrestling here, but it's only updated through 2021.  From 1992-2021 inclusive I have 147.  In 2022 OSU had 2 AAs, Fix and Plott, which would make 149 by my count.  That is not the 150 in his bio.  For Douglas I used his ISU Bio which said he coached 52 AAs at ISU and 58 in his previous gig at ASU.

On 1/19/2023 at 12:32 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

I am claiming the victory here. I think John Smith has 145 AA's on his resume, not the 150 claimed in his official OSU bio. I have him at 134 through the 2019 season which matches the total the NCAA reports in this article that has stats through the 2019 season:

https://www.ncaa.com/news/wrestling/article/2020-07-29/oklahoma-state-wrestling-championships-history-statistics

 

I didn't fully check the OSU list for accuracy, but it has 133 through 2019 inclusive.  Then it has 8-2020 no tournament AAs (Picc, Hone, Lewallen, Sheets, Wittlake, Smith, Montalvo, Greer) and 6 in 2021 (Lewallen, Sheets, Wittlake, Ferrari, Greer, Fix).  With makes 147 plus Plott and Fix in 2022 makes 149.  If the number through 2019 is 134 like you and the NCAA claim then the 8 in 2020, 6 in 2021, and 2 in 2022 would make the 150 in his bio.

[Wrestleknownothing]

19 minutes ago, fishbane said:

I took that number from John Smith's bio.  OSU has a list of AAs in wrestling here, but it's only updated through 2021.  From 1992-2021 inclusive I have 147.  In 2022 OSU had 2 AAs, Fix and Plott, which would make 149 by my count.  That is not the 150 in his bio.  For Douglas I used his ISU Bio which said he coached 52 AAs at ISU and 58 in his previous gig at ASU.

I didn't fully check the OSU list for accuracy, but it has 133 through 2019 inclusive.  Then it has 8-2020 no tournament AAs (Picc, Hone, Lewallen, Sheets, Wittlake, Smith, Montalvo, Greer) and 6 in 2021 (Lewallen, Sheets, Wittlake, Ferrari, Greer, Fix).  With makes 147 plus Plott and Fix in 2022 makes 149.  If the number through 2019 is 134 like you and the NCAA claim then the 8 in 2020, 6 in 2021, and 2 in 2022 would make the 150 in his bio.

The difference is in 2020. Oklahoma State gives him credit for 8 All-Americans, I only give him credit for the three wrestlers who were First Team All-Americans. The 150 total includes 3 wrestlers who were Second Team All-American (seeded 9 - 12) and 2 wrestlers who were Honorable Mention All-American (seeded 13 - 16) from that 2020 season. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Based on seeds (3, 22, 14, 5, 11, 4, 12, 9, 14) and the probability a given seed finishes as an AA I would expect Oklahoma State would have 3.3 AA's if the 2020 tournament was wrestled (30% probability of 4 / 70% probability of 3).

So eight seems aggressive.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Wrestleknownothing

[fishbane]

On 1/19/2023 at 12:24 PM, Tigerfan said:

So, bottom line is Gable is superior to Sanderson as a coach, unless PSU actually does much better for the next 5-10 years than they have recently. Hard to imagine, really. Surely PSU can’t get much better, Unless of course they dig even deeper into their RTC funds to supplement things. 

"Superior as a coach" leave room for debate, but not much as it currently stands.  If AA's are your metric of choice Gable is ahead and it is impossible for Cael to catch him in his first 21 years as a head coach.  Even if Sanderson coaches 10 AAs/year for the next 5 years that's only 50 AAs and not enough to catch Gable's 152 in 21 years.  Similarly, Sanderson has won 9 national team titles in 16 years and can get to at most 14 in 21 years.  That would still be 1 behind Gable's 15. 

What's interesting is the ways that Sanderson has a realistic chance of surpassing Gable.  And by realistic they don't have to do "much better" as you put it.  

Gable coached 7 undefeated dual teams in his 21 years at Iowa.  Should PSU finish this season undefeated, which they are favored to do, Sanderson will also have 7 undefeated dual seasons as a coach in 4 fewer years as a head coach and in only 14 years at PSU.  

Gable coached 5.67 3-time NCAA champions (Ed Banach, Jim Zalesky, Barry Davis, Tom Brands, Lincoln McIlravy, and Joe Williams (2/3 titles)).  Sanderson has coached 4 (Ruth, Retherford, Nickal, and Nolf) and has 3 wrestlers going for their 3rd this season (RBY, Starocci, and Brooks).  Should all 3 pull it off and he will have coached more 3x champs than anyone else except Gallagher who coached 7.  

Should Brooks and Starocci both finish out their careers as 4x champs then Sanderson will be the first coach to coach 2-4xers. Koll could kind of be part of that club too as he coached Dake and Diakomihalis (2 of 3 years) who is going for his 4th.  

Flo has now labeled Levi Haines a title contender giving the Nittany Lions 6 title contenders this season.  Should 5of them pull it off he will have coached 5 NCAA champs in the same season none times than any other coach (3) and should all of them pull it off he will be the first coach ever to coach 6 champs in the same season.  

Going back to the original topic of the thread before we started talking AAs, Cael has coached 34 individual NCAA champions through 16 seasons compared with 45 through 21 seasons why Gable.  He currently has 6 national tittle contenders with 14 years of eligibility remaining.  He has an excellent chance of coaching at least 45 through 21 seasons with the guys he has in the room now.  This wouldn't need them to do any better than they have over the past 5 NCAA tournament where they averaged 4.2/season or even the 2.46/year PSU averaged over Sanderson's time there including the no tournament 2020 season.

Sanderson has coached 9 national championship teams in 13 seasons at PSU.  They are a prohibitive favorite to win this year which would be 10 in 14 years at PSU and the same rate at which Iowa won titles under Gable (15 in 21 years).  PSU would not need to do much better than they had been doing to hit 15 titles in 21 years under Cael. It's essentially their current title winning rate.

All that stuff isn't going to happen, but some of it will and probably enough by the conclusion of 21 years that this it is a real debate.

[fishbane]

42 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The difference is in 2020. Oklahoma State gives him credit for 8 All-Americans, I only give him credit for the three wrestlers who were First Team All-Americans. The 150 total includes 3 wrestlers who were Second Team All-American (seeded 9 - 12) and 2 wrestlers who were Honorable Mention All-American (seeded 13 - 16) from that 2020 season. 

Of the 6 coaches in the table this only affects Smith and Sanderson.  It seems especially dubious to count HM AAs as AAs.  Counting 2nd team selections probably maps with how other sports with 1st and 2nd team designations count AAs.  For Sanderson it doesn't matter either way.  He has 7 qualifiers in 2020 and 5 were top 12 seeds and the other 2 were outside the top 16.

[Wrestleknownothing]

8 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Of the 6 coaches in the table this only affects Smith and Sanderson.  It seems especially dubious to count HM AAs as AAs.  Counting 2nd team selections probably maps with how other sports with 1st and 2nd team designations count AAs.  For Sanderson it doesn't matter either way.  He has 7 qualifiers in 2020 and 5 were top 12 seeds and the other 2 were outside the top 16.

My issue is it doesn't match with how wrestling does it in other years. For 91 seasons that ended with a tournament there were 8 All-Americans. For one season without a tournament having 12 or 16 seems aggressive. 

And you are correct in that Sanderson's total is unaffected as he had five wrestlers in the top 5 (along with a 19 and a 21 seed). But even giving Sanderson credit for 5 is moderately aggressive as the expected total given seeds is 4.4 (only 40% chance of 5). We would need to invoke the "PSU always outperforms" clause, I think.

BTW, care to make a prediction in Iowa v PSU? You seem like a prognosticator.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Wrestleknownothing

[fishbane]

49 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

My issue is it doesn't match with how wrestling does it in other years. For 91 seasons that ended with a tournament there were 8 All-Americans. For one season without a tournament having 12 or 16 seems aggressive. 

And you are correct in that Sanderson's total is unaffected as he had five wrestlers in the top 5 (along with a 19 and a 21 seed). But even giving Sanderson credit for 5 is moderately aggressive as the expected total given seeds is 4.4 (only 40% chance of 5). We would need to invoke the "PSU always outperforms" clause, I think.

BTW, care to make a prediction in Iowa v PSU? You seem like a prognosticator.

I get the point that 120 or 160 AAs in a year is far too many.  Still from 1963-1978 (16 years) there were only 6 AAs per weights and 1928-1962 (32 tournaments) there were only 4 per weight.  Calculating it as a % of total AAs like you did earlier should somewhat account for the difference.  Though I suspect it still helps Smith relative to Sanderson over how a tournament would have played out.  

It's an interesting match.  There is a path for Iowa to win it, but the odds of all that happening at BJC seem unlikely to me.  That path would be for Spencer Lee, Real Woods, and Max Murin (all favorites by the rankings) to win along with Kennedy and Big Tone, who have both beaten their PSU rivals in the past. Lee supplies the bonus points that make the difference in the match.  I'll say 22-12 PSU.  Lee wins, along with two out of Woods/Murin/Kennedy/Cassioppi.