Upsets...Upsets.... not so fast

[jajensen09]

2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I hear ya. My numbers assume they will take some losses. Across the 4 top ranked wrestlers I have them falling roughly 13 points shy of max. So you can look at that as one of four coming in sixth or seventh. Or two coming in third.

So you have them scoring less than last years?

[bnwtwg]

RBY, Brooks, and at least two other finalists this year take it to the bank. Penn State does this like clockwork in "transition years." I remember when there was concern about the next class taking over. That was Hall, Nolf, Nickal, Joseph. Then the next generation how are they going to do it... that was the RBY, Lee, Brooks group. The point is, it's the best room in the country. It's only not won a team title twice - once when Carl redshirted everyone and once when the stars aligned for Iowa (and I hate to say it but I think PSU would have won in 2020 as well). It's like betting against Iowa in the Gable days - you have to be stupid and brave to do it. As long as Carl and Casey are in Happy Valley I will never go against a Nittany Lion on Friday night.

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

So you have them scoring less than last years?

Yes.

• Based on Intermat ratings from 12/22: ~30 fewer
• Based on Flo ratings from 12/20: ~26 fewer
• Based on Wrestlestat from 12/27: ~26 fewer

But I also have second place scoring fewer than last year.

Depending on the rankings service I have them 12 - 16 points fewer.

Another thing to keep in mind is that I am assuming PSU and everyone else will wrestle to global historical averages. It has been pointed out that PSU has been a big outlier under Cael Sanderson and staff.

[jajensen09]

7 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

RBY, Brooks, and at least two other finalists this year take it to the bank. Penn State does this like clockwork in "transition years." I remember when there was concern about the next class taking over. That was Hall, Nolf, Nickal, Joseph. Then the next generation how are they going to do it... that was the RBY, Lee, Brooks group. The point is, it's the best room in the country. It's only not won a team title twice - once when Carl redshirted everyone and once when the stars aligned for Iowa (and I hate to say it but I think PSU would have won in 2020 as well). It's like betting against Iowa in the Gable days - you have to be stupid and brave to do it. As long as Carl and Casey are in Happy Valley I will never go against a Nittany Lion on Friday night.

I would not say kerk and Dean are locked for finals 

[Gus]

51 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

I would not say kerk and Dean are locked for finals 

He is saying RBY, Brooks and two from the group of: Starrocci, Dean, Kerk, Bartlett and to a lesser extent Van Ness and Haynes. Like it or not Karl has shown that his guys are ready come march...

[Wrestleknownothing]

As a reminder of how highly seeded wrestlers have performed by school from 2010 - 2022 (lets call it the Cael Sanderson era).

Only schools that averaged 1 or more top 4 seeds per year are included.

For wrestlers eliminated prior to the AA bouts I give them credit for the top end of the range that they were eliminated. For example, all four blood round losers are credited with ninth. I also have mid-point and bottom of range data, but it doesn't change anything.

The bottom graph shows the total number of wrestlers with top 4 seeds.

 

Edited January 3, 2023 by Wrestleknownothing
fixed graph title

[jajensen09]

48 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

As a reminder of how highly seeded wrestlers have performed by school from 2010 - 2022 (lets call it the Cael Sanderson era).

Only schools that averaged 1 or more top 4 seeds per year are included.

For wrestlers eliminated prior to the AA bouts I give them credit for the top end of the range that they were eliminated. For example, all four blood round losers are credited with ninth. I also have mid-point and bottom of range data, but it doesn't change anything.

The bottom graph shows the total number of wrestlers with top 4 seeds.

 

I agree psu is head over everyone. But the upsets in different weight classes are going to make it a tougher path to the finals

[Wrestleknownothing]

24 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

I agree psu is head over everyone. But the upsets in different weight classes are going to make it a tougher path to the finals

Tougher than what? In 2021 Roman Bravo-Young and Nick Lee were the 2 seed and Carter Starocci was the 3 seed, meaning they had the "tough" semi. That turned out alright. Of their four champs that year only Aaron Brooks was the 1 seed. In 2022 the script was flipped. This time only Brooks wasn't the 1 seed. Again, it turned out alright.

Edited January 3, 2023 by Wrestleknownothing

[jajensen09]

3 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Tougher than what? In 2021 Roman Bravo-Young and Nick Lee were the 2 seed and Carter Starocci was the 3 seed, meaning they had the "tough" semi. That turned out alright. Of their four champs that year only Aaron Brooks was the 1 seed. In 2022 the script was flipped. This time only Brooks wasn't the 1 seed. Again, it turned out alright.

You think kerk is going to beat  Schultz come March??  And Dean some how going to make the finals? 

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 minute ago, jajensen09 said:

You think kerk is going to beat  Schultz come March??  And Dean some how going to make the finals? 

Neither need to happen for PSU to run away with the title. But I would say Greg Kerkvliet is a clear favorite right now over Cohlton Schultz and Max Dean has at least a 25% chance of making the finals. And historically things only get more favorable for PSU come March. 

[Antitroll2828]

4 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

Until Kerk beats Cassioppi or Schultz I cannot in good conscience pick him, and I was a big time Kerk stan for a long time. He really seems to struggle against big heavies with a high wrestling IQ.

Dean lost twice last year at NCAAs. He got a couple big time Carl calls in his favor. If he still had a red singlet with a big white C on his chest I'm not sure he would have received the same treatment.

Brooks losing may have been the best thing to happen to him. I am anticipating a destroyer of all worlds the next 11 weeks.

Kerk literally beat Cassioppi already this year 

[Antitroll2828]

43 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

You think kerk is going to beat  Schultz come March??  And Dean some how going to make the finals? 

Why wouldn’t Kerk be favored ? You are basing this off of one match 3 years ago when kerk was undersized with bad staph and wrestled for 2 weeks going into big tens? ..Schultz just lost to a true freshman who he outweighed by 50 60 pounds and A.J Nevilles 

[Wrestleknownothing]

23 minutes ago, Antitroll2828 said:

Kerk literally beat Cassioppi already this year 

Good news for @bnwtwg's conscience.

[bnwtwg]

1 minute ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Good news for @bnwtwg's conscience.

I’ll take Cass not coming off a U23 peak. Kerk could have done the same but he opted out.