Can Stanford Finish Top 5?

[BAC]

Yes, I know it's a weird thing to say after they got routed by Iowa 32-9.  And no, I'm not reading too much into their win over Iowa State, given how many ISU guys were out of the lineup.  But what I can't help think is that that if Stanford had a full lineup, including Provo and Cardenas (who I'm told is redshirting), are there 5 teams that would be better than them at NCAAs?

Let's not forget that Provo was ranked #1 for a while last year at 125.  He could DNP, but he also could be a high AA.  And at 157, if Cardenas (4th last year) goes, he's a title contender.  Besides that, at 133, I'm not sure if Knox is as good as his win over Ayala suggests or if Ayala is just still making the weight transition, but that was an eye-opener.  Rounding out the rest of the first 5, Abas didn't look great against Parco but has AA'd before (and I think was R12 last year, beating Kasak), and Valencia is an extremely dangerous freshman who had a monster off-season.  Beating Block isn't all that notable, but who has beaten Valencia the past year, besides his nail-biters to Bassett? Five AAs in the first 5 weights would not surprise me.

The next two weights are strong too.  You have Garvin at 165, who AA'd last year, and who has time to fix the gas tank issue that cost him his win over Caliendo yesterday.  At 174, it's too early to say how good Norman is, but he looked legitimately better than former AA Brands yesterday. He beat Griffith last year as a redshirt and has bonus in all his matches this year except Brands.  Again, I see 7 legit AA contenders or favorites in the first 7 weights.

It falls off at the last 3 weights. Stemmet at 197 was 2-2 at NCAAs last year, and maybe is an outside AA threat, but I don't see any other points.  Even so, when you put all that together, that's a whole lot of guys who could end up on the podium. They aren't touching Iowa or PSU or Iowa, but if Knox, Valencia and Norman show they are AA-level wrestlers (a big if, but not crazy IMO), then I don't see how they aren't in the mix with the other top teams.  Maybe even a trophy...?

If Cardenas stays in redshirt, I'd say top 10 is in reach but not top 5. (No offense to Cholakyan, who is fun to watch.) But selfishly, I hope they pull Cardenas's shirt and see what this team can do.   

[nhs67]

I think as a whole if they improve their gas tanks, they could.  Especially were Cardenas and Valencia not be on Redshirt and Ming were to come back.

Monteiro wad also supposedly vyeing for the 174lb spot, so if he can grow in to 184 he will be bett we than he appears now.

I don't think Provo was ranked #1 for a while, though.  I thought it was legitimately one week and he took losses that week so he dropped.

I think Stemmet's losses to Carroll and Focus are more apt measuring gauges than the beating Buchanan put on him.  Three potential Top 5s in a row is a rough go to start the season.  He should make the required adjustments and contend for low AA/R12.

Abas could wrestle Parco 40 times and lose every one of them.  It is a shit style for him.  He can definitely compete for high AA honors, though.  Seeding will definitely dictate his peak aat NCAAs.

I am all for it.  It appears Koll got the right recruits there and Ayres is helping them improve the right ways.  If they can keep improving they will be fire when March rolls around - especially with a gas tank.

[Idaho]

10 hours ago, BAC said:

are there 5 teams that would be better than them at NCAAs?

Yes - PSU, Ok State, Iowa, VaTech and Nebraska. Stanford would have to not redshirt their guys, have a lot of things go right and have some things go wrong for several other teams. I would love to see Stanford be top 5 for a change at the top, but I see them 6-8.  They are getting close, but they either need a couple  of really smart transfers who can also wrestle, or they need a couple high level recruits at a couple weak weights. 

 

[nhs67]

25 minutes ago, Idaho said:

Yes - PSU, Ok State, Iowa, VaTech and Nebraska. Stanford would have to not redshirt their guys, have a lot of things go right and have some things go wrong for several other teams. I would love to see Stanford be top 5 for a change at the top, but I see them 6-8.  They are getting close, but they either need a couple  of really smart transfers who can also wrestle, or they need a couple high level recruits at a couple weak weights. 

 

VTech only has 1 sure fire AA right now.  Stanford could outplace them (if all shirts are pulled and such).

[Idaho]

3 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

VTech only has 1 sure fire AA right now.  Stanford could outplace them (if all shirts are pulled and such).

Vtech has 5 returning AA in their lineup with Ventresca, Latona, Henson, Wolak and Stewart. The question will be what they can get out of 4x NQ Brady, 2x NQ McGonagle  and freshman Hipolito, Sasso and  Mullen. They could qualify all 10 at the NCAA.... Stanford had a couple big holes - 184 and 285 and I dont' see their best `10 matching up....but as I stated, if everything went right for Stanford and VA tech had a couple set-backs, then it is possible. All things equal, I don't think so. It's a loooonnngggg season.

[nhs67]

11 hours ago, Idaho said:

Vtech has 5 returning AA in their lineup with Ventresca, Latona, Henson, Wolak and Stewart. The question will be what they can get out of 4x NQ Brady, 2x NQ McGonagle  and freshman Hipolito, Sasso and  Mullen. They could qualify all 10 at the NCAA.... Stanford had a couple big holes - 184 and 285 and I dont' see their best `10 matching up....but as I stated, if everything went right for Stanford and VA tech had a couple set-backs, then it is possible. All things equal, I don't think so. It's a loooonnngggg season.

Oh, I undersrtand that they have a fire-ass lineup, but the only one I would bet my house(s) on to AA, providing no injuries to be expected, would be Henson.  Latona is up a weight and has already taken an odd loss this year, Stewart had a couple (early) losses last year that were head-scratchers in hindsight, Wolak is in a new town and also took quite a few losses that he'll need to avoid to replicate his success last year, and Ventresca is coming off an injury at the lowest weight class.  I hope they succeed - all of them, but I was merely playing devil's advocate.

Also, I do think once Monteiro settles in to 184, he will acclimate a bit better.  My best comparison would be Gavin Kane/Cade Lautt a few years ago at 174/184.

Obviously, I am throwing out best-cast scenarios.

[Gus]

Could they? Sure anything can happen. That said; PSU, Iowa, OK State are very likely to place higher than them and top 3. The next tier of teams vying for the 4-5 spots would include; tOSU, Cornell, VT, Iowa State, Nebraska and Mizzou. I would love to see my jackrabbits as well but someone will really have to emerge for us to make that jump. Im not sure Stanford has enough high end placers to push teams like tOSU and Nebraska out of the top 5. 

[PacMan]

My guess is that they will RS a few of their hammers.  Loading up for podium runs in 2025-26 and beyond.

[Idaho]

3 hours ago, nhs67 said:

Oh, I undersrtand that they have a fire-ass lineup, but the only one I would bet my house(s) on to AA, providing no injuries to be expected, would be Henson.  Latona is up a weight and has already taken an odd loss this year, Stewart had a couple (early) losses last year that were head-scratchers in hindsight, Wolak is in a new town and also took quite a few losses that he'll need to avoid to replicate his success last year, and Ventresca is coming off an injury at the lowest weight class.  I hope they succeed - all of them, but I was merely playing devil's advocate.

Also, I do think once Monteiro settles in to 184, he will acclimate a bit better.  My best comparison would be Gavin Kane/Cade Lautt a few years ago at 174/184.

Obviously, I am throwing out best-cast scenarios.

Yeah I think the teams are similar in terms of former AA that are on the bubble with losses (Abas and Latona) and young kids who could develop into AA  (Norman, Valencia - Sasso, Mullens). Ventresca/Provo is a good match-up. Stemmett is overrated and got handled by Sasso last year. At the end of the day I see VaTech as the more solid 10 with Stanford having some holes. But like you said, best case scenario it could happen. 

[wrestlingfan22]

I also think Stanford will keep Valencia and Cardenas in RS and run it back next year with this lineup (Or something close):

125: Provo

133: Knox

141: Valencia

149: Consiglio/Parco

157: Cardenas

165: Garvin

174: Norman

184: Montiero

197: Hand-Lindemyer/Posada

285: Posada?

197 and 285 could be hard to figure out. Depends what weight Posada sees himself out and how much he weighs going into the summer

[NotMikeMal]

Is Provo redshirting this season? 

[PacMan]

On 11/12/2024 at 8:36 AM, NotMikeMal said:

Is Provo redshirting this season? 

He already redshirted.  But it remains a mystery why he hasn't wrestled this season and now looks to be missing Vegas as well.

[MidwestMan]

Not to get totally off topic, but Minnesota needs to be included in that top 5 conversation.  I'll be tickled pink if Mizzou scratches the top 10.  

[Idaho]

8 hours ago, PacMan said:

He already redshirted.  But it remains a mystery why he hasn't wrestled this season and now looks to be missing Vegas as well.

I read he has an injury... to what extent I am not certain. 

I am not sure why they are not using Richter at 125. Maybe he will show up in the bracket. 

Edited December 5 by Idaho

[BAC]

2 hours ago, MidwestMan said:

Not to get totally off topic, but Minnesota needs to be included in that top 5 conversation.  I'll be tickled pink if Mizzou scratches the top 10.  

Agreed.  Gable aside, they seem to have a bunch of guys who are under-ranked.  Will be interesting to see how they develop this year.

[KCMO2]

3 hours ago, MidwestMan said:

Not to get totally off topic, but Minnesota needs to be included in that top 5 conversation.  I'll be tickled pink if Mizzou scratches the top 10.  

Mizzou has started slow with multiple starters out, but their lineup has 8 returning qualifiers with 6 legit scorers in Surtin, Edmonds, Steed, O'Toole, Hawks, and Elam.  That's 35 points returning.  Surtain did have a bad tournament last year going 0-2, but was ranked as high as #3 late in the season.  And I could see O'Toole and Elam both improving on their placement from last year.  Don't see them getting a trophy, but would be surprised if they're not top 10.

[bnwtwg]

2 hours ago, KCMO2 said:

And I could see O'Toole...improving on their placement from last year.

It would be a bigger shock if KOT didn't improve from last year's 3rd place. But that's the rub when you participate in a historic bracket.

[MidwestMan]

8 hours ago, KCMO2 said:

Mizzou has started slow with multiple starters out, but their lineup has 8 returning qualifiers with 6 legit scorers in Surtin, Edmonds, Steed, O'Toole, Hawks, and Elam.  That's 35 points returning.  Surtain did have a bad tournament last year going 0-2, but was ranked as high as #3 late in the season.  And I could see O'Toole and Elam both improving on their placement from last year.  Don't see them getting a trophy, but would be surprised if they're not top 10.

Like I said, I will be tickled if the Tigers finish top 10.  Haven't seen Elam or Surtin on the mat yet and no clue about their health, or motivation.  How hurt is Steed?  Love his fire on the mat, but how bad is the knee, and if he does get back, he is injury plagued.  Almost all Americans last year doesn't mean diddly this year.  Some guys wrestle just enough to win or lose by the smallest margins, and it catches up to them.  Several MU wrestlers regressed last year and whether it be injury, sickness, or HEW, MU crapped the bed at the end of the season and fell short at Nats.  Kegan Otoole is a great kid, technician, strategic wrestler, but he won't win it this year because he lacks the "dog fight toughness" that will be needed to beat Hanes.  The best have a little nasty in them when the "haymakers" start flying.  I personally hope my predictions are totally wrong and the "Tiger Style" gets it done.  My gut says something else.

Edited December 6 by MidwestMan

[Husker_Du]

Provo technically didn't use a redshirt yet.

the year after graduating hs, he didn't enroll in college. 

[Husker_Du]

On 11/11/2024 at 9:32 AM, wrestlingfan22 said:

I also think Stanford will keep Valencia and Cardenas in RS and run it back next year with this lineup (Or something close):

125: Provo

133: Knox

141: Valencia

149: Consiglio/Parco

157: Cardenas

165: Garvin

174: Norman

184: Montiero

197: Hand-Lindemyer/Posada

285: Posada?

197 and 285 could be hard to figure out. Depends what weight Posada sees himself out and how much he weighs going into the summer

i really like Collin Guffey. hoping they can get him in the lineup next year. If they can go Norman/Guffey or Guffey/Norman at 74/84 that would be ideal imo.