Prediction Markets

[Wrestleknownothing]

Now that they are legal in the US, how do you feel about prediction markets?

Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt all offer prediction markets on the presidential election. Heading into voting all of them had Trump at mid to upper 50% to win. No polls saw the race the same way.

Are you more, less, or just as likely to use prediction markets based on the better accuracy than polls?

[red viking]

Need more data than that one data point. 

[billyhoyle]

Are these confirmed legal? I thought it's illegal to bet on U.S. elections as a U.S. citizen? And wouldn't they only be legal in states with legalized gambling?

[Wrestleknownothing]

21 minutes ago, billyhoyle said:

Are these confirmed legal? I thought it's illegal to bet on U.S. elections as a U.S. citizen? And wouldn't they only be legal in states with legalized gambling?

Kalshi sued the CFTC and won a favorable ruling in September. This caused Robinhood to jump into the market a week or two ago.

[jross]

This could be a form of voter suppression, similar to voting polls.  I trusted the heavy betting odds in favor of Trump this year because I believed the newness was representing smart money.  Soon this may represent corrupted money.  

Imagine the stories if Kamala had been winning the betting odds.

The only real concern I had this year of a Kamala win was when a reddit poster claimed they bet $10k for a chance to profit 18k.  When you put money on it… I assume due diligence was involved.  Also, the AMA was legit.

This race should had been a Reagan landslide if you know the news is fake.  The news would post a story and X community notes would disprove it quickly!  Repeatedly!

The reason my niece was in tears about abortion rights is because of the media’s bad information.  The media was worse than it has ever been.

https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/rich-noyes/2024/10/28/tv-hits-trump-85-negative-news-vs-78-positive-press-harris

Edited November 8 by jross

[jross]

I was following along the betting odds and when it was 98%, I was still concerned about being over confident because all trust was broken in 2020.

[red viking]

2 hours ago, jross said:

I was following along the betting odds and when it was 98%, I was still concerned about being over confident because all trust was broken in 2020.

Youre being a whack job again. Making accusations without real data or logic to back them up. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 hours ago, jross said:

I was following along the betting odds and when it was 98%, I was still concerned about being over confident because all trust was broken in 2020.

And your concerns were unfounded. It is time to start incorporating that into your thinking.

[jross]

I watched this live in 2020… took awhile to find a copy.

98% of votes are in.  We don’t guess.  Trump is a lock even if 100% of remaining votes are for Biden.

[Lipdrag]

On 11/8/2024 at 10:04 AM, Wrestleknownothing said:

And your concerns were unfounded. It is time to start incorporating that into your thinking.

 

Let's do some math.  I hear certain contributors to this forum have an affinity for it:

T = 2,384,312 votes, B = 2,280,607 votes.  Total votes = 4,664,917

2% of the vote is remaining to be counted = 95,202 votes to be counted.

T is winning by 103,705

T lost Georgia by 11,799

Therefore, Biden got 115,504 more votes than Trump did out of the last 95,202 votes that arrived.

JROSS - how can you not have trust in that?

Edited November 9 by Lipdrag

[Wrestleknownothing]

7 minutes ago, Lipdrag said:

 

Let's do some math.  I hear certain contributors to this forum have an affinity for it:

T = 2,384,312 votes, B = 2,280,607 votes.  Total votes = 4,664,917

2% of the vote is remaining to be counted = 95,202 votes to be counted.

T is winning by 103,705

T lost Georgia by 11,799

Therefore, Biden got 115,504 more votes than Trump did out of the last 95,202 votes that arrived.

JROSS - how can you not have trust in that?

Hmmm. GIGO.

[Lipdrag]

17 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Hmmm. GIGO.

Concur.  The garbage came in after this point in that evening and our whole country got garbage out - Biden.

Wait, do you mean that NBC news is a garbage-y Trumpist source now?!?  They might consider 'dems to be fightin' words.

Or, wait again . . .  Do you mean that math racist and sexist and 1 + 1 can equal whatever anyone wants it to mean?

Nevermind, math is baseless and provides no evidence of anything.

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 minute ago, Lipdrag said:

Concur.  The garbage came in after this point in that evening and our whole country got garbage out - Biden.

Wait, do you mean that NBC news is a garbage-y Trumpist source now?!?  They might consider 'dems to be fightin' words.

Or, wait again . . .  Do you mean that math racist and sexist and 1 + 1 can equal whatever anyone wants it to mean?

Nevermind, math is baseless and provides no evidence of anything.

I will clear it up for you.

What I mean is your are particularly bad at math. And at arguing your points.

You do seem very good at using a random word generator.

[jross]

There was no fraud in Georgia like there was no abuse in the pews.  Deniers are willfully blind to the evidence, hoping it’ll magically disappear.

Edited November 9 by jross

[Lipdrag]

Prediction you first will see here - the projected final vote totals using WKN-certified bad math.  There are almost 10 million ballots still not counted in all the states.  The larger percentage of those not counted votes are in Dem-states but Utah, Alaska, Arizona, and Mississippi are among the count laggers also.

Projecting totals using an assumption (whoa, dangerous) that the uncounted votes come in at the same percentage as the counted vote in each state:

	Harris	Trump
Current Counted Vote (Mn)	70.4	74.2
Uncounted Vote (Mn)	5.3	4.4
Total Votes at 100% (Mn)	75.7	78.7

[Lipdrag]

On 11/9/2024 at 7:09 PM, Lipdrag said:

                                           Harris    Trump

Current Counted Vote (Mn)   70.4   74.2

Uncounted Vote (Mn)              5.3      4.4  

Total Votes at 100% (Mn)       75.7    78.7

More bad math.

Updated prediction 4 days later.  Only 3.5 million votes have been counted.  6.2 million still to count (?!?).  Projected total is reduced by 200k votes.

	Harris	Trump
Current Counted Vote (Mn)	72.4	75.6
Uncounted Vote (Mn)	3.4	2.8
Total Votes at 100% (Mn)	75.8	78.4