Its over. Joe Biden is stepping down

[WrestlingRasta]

I know I’m going to take a bunch of flack here but I think this race is over. Prior to the debate (and even after in some polls), Trump was neck and neck with Weekend at Bernie’s. The whole unfit for office script is completely flipped now, and the race between two dead beats is gone.  Everyone will have their opinions of her but she brings a punch of energy to the campaign that is completely different than what has been for awhile. Add to that, there’s a whole lot of black folks pissed off, and there’s a whole lot of women pissed off.  And Trump might have shot himself in the foot choosing Vance. 
 

Just an observation. 

[headshuck]

Obama hasn’t endorsed her or the coup so there’s a chance she won’t be the candidate.

[PortaJohn]

3 hours ago, WrestlingRasta said:

I know I’m going to take a bunch of flack here but I think this race is over. Prior to the debate (and even after in some polls), Trump was neck and neck with Weekend at Bernie’s. The whole unfit for office script is completely flipped now, and the race between two dead beats is gone.  Everyone will have their opinions of her but she brings a punch of energy to the campaign that is completely different than what has been for awhile. Add to that, there’s a whole lot of black folks pissed off, and there’s a whole lot of women pissed off.  And Trump might have shot himself in the foot choosing Vance. 
 

Just an observation. 

You're going to somehow have to reconcile the demographics in the Midwest swing states that say you're theory is wrong.  Trump has gained on white voters when Kamala is switched with Biden.  That doesn't bode well in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA 

[Offthemat]

They’ve been polling vs Kalema for a long time. 

[uncle bernard]

53 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

You're going to somehow have to reconcile the demographics in the Midwest swing states that say you're theory is wrong.  Trump has gained on white voters when Kamala is switched with Biden.  That doesn't bode well in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA 

She started campaigning two days ago and she's already gained in swing state polling. You can keep pretending that the Trump v. Biden polling is permanent, but nothing is set in stone right now.

[uncle bernard]

What's happening here is so transparent. You guys were all excited for there to be chaos at the convention. Instead, the whole party rallied around Kamala immediately - like I told you it would. Now you're disappointed, so you're whining about it being undemocratic.

The polling was clear that the vast majority of democratic voters wanted Biden to step aside and the vast majority of those were perfectly fine with Kamala stepping in. There is no time for a primary, which is why there are exceptions in the rules to account for emergencies. Not a single one of you would be saying the republicans shouldn't be on the ballot if Trump got his head blown off because it would be "undemocratic."

Every single voter will have a chance to say yes or no to Kamala. You are acting like Biden was just reelected and then stepped down to sneak Kamala in.

[ThreePointTakedown]

16 hours ago, Paul158 said:

What if the people who are sexually active and don't want to get pregnant make a responsible choice and use one of the many different types of birth control. There are dozens of safe birth control options. Birth control pills (1960) condoms (1850) these have been around a long time. So, is it lack of education, lazy or just irresponsible? MOST OF THESE ITEMS ARE FREE. I'm going to take cover now for the incoming barrage. I'm not talking about incest or rape or medical difficulties with the mother or the baby. That is a different conversation altogether.

Fair point. Birth control is not 100% effective. Did you know that? What would suggest in that case? 

The 'moral' argument that, it seems like you are raising(correct me if I'm wrong) is not a salient one. You cannot force your, subjective, morality on other people. If you don't have data to express the benefit of your point a 'common sense' or 'moral' argument is worthless. Because it comes back as 'I want what I want because I want it'. Its childish and mean considering the obvious ramifications of not being able to get the health care people need and what could result from that. 

PS. Incest and Rape are also brought up with the morality argument. Making the bars so high to clear that its almost impossible to prove the conditions of a pregnancy under those conditions. That being the point because those who are in favor of banning abortion want to make it very difficult to get any abortion. Let alone one that begins by incest or rape. Because they are paranoid and believe any loop hole in the law will allow 'those people' to game the system. Its a fill in the pool argument. They don't want the people that they don't like to have the benefits of anything, really. Because rich/privilege people will always have abortion available to them. Its just an attack on poor and less educated. 

[ThreePointTakedown]

12 hours ago, Scouts Honor said:

shall not be infringed

Fair. But the 'well regulated militia' is specific and is before 'shall not be infringed'. So you need to fall within the description of the first thing before you get the privilege of the second thing. Sorry if you might not agree to that but that's how its written. Textualists/originalists must agree unless they just lie to see things the way they want to anyway. Which is pretty much what an originalist/textualist does. 

How many gun owners are in a 'well regulated militia'? Probably not many. 

What is a 'well regulated militia'? Probably a group people that get together to train with their weapons to aid in the defense of the state/country. Also, there is probably a list of who belongs to this group. 

Where are those groups?

[Danny Deck]

As far back as 2022 I can find polls of Democrats where 75% wanted someone other than Biden as the 2024 nominee, and recently polls with 90% of Democrats saying Biden did the right thing deciding not to run for another term. At this late date, it seems they've definitely reconciled themselves to the ends (any plausible Not Biden candidate) justifying the means (lots of pressure and getting in line behind Harris). 

I wish a plausible challenger had stepped forward after the midterms. It's ironic that a better than expected mid term got them into this position. 

[Paul158]

1 hour ago, ThreePointTakedown said:

Fair point. Birth control is not 100% effective. Did you know that? What would suggest in that case? 

The 'moral' argument that, it seems like you are raising(correct me if I'm wrong) is not a salient one. You cannot force your, subjective, morality on other people. If you don't have data to express the benefit of your point a 'common sense' or 'moral' argument is worthless. Because it comes back as 'I want what I want because I want it'. Its childish and mean considering the obvious ramifications of not being able to get the health care people need and what could result from that. 

PS. Incest and Rape are also brought up with the morality argument. Making the bars so high to clear that its almost impossible to prove the conditions of a pregnancy under those conditions. That being the point because those who are in favor of banning abortion want to make it very difficult to get any abortion. Let alone one that begins by incest or rape. Because they are paranoid and believe any loop hole in the law will allow 'those people' to game the system. Its a fill in the pool argument. They don't want the people that they don't like to have the benefits of anything, really. Because rich/privilege people will always have abortion available to them. Its just an attack on poor and less educated. 

Did you happen to skip the part about using birth control methods that have been around for over 174 years. Did you skip the part when I asked why smart, intelligent people don't use the available birth control products. Is it lack of education, laziness or just irresponsible.  I don't think I mentioned abortion whether right or wrong. Please show me. I'm serious. Show me.

Edited July 25 by Paul158
missed a word

[Paul158]

1 hour ago, ThreePointTakedown said:

Fair point. Birth control is not 100% effective. Did you know that? What would suggest in that case? 

The 'moral' argument that, it seems like you are raising(correct me if I'm wrong) is not a salient one. You cannot force your, subjective, morality on other people. If you don't have data to express the benefit of your point a 'common sense' or 'moral' argument is worthless. Because it comes back as 'I want what I want because I want it'. Its childish and mean considering the obvious ramifications of not being able to get the health care people need and what could result from that. 

PS. Incest and Rape are also brought up with the morality argument. Making the bars so high to clear that its almost impossible to prove the conditions of a pregnancy under those conditions. That being the point because those who are in favor of banning abortion want to make it very difficult to get any abortion. Let alone one that begins by incest or rape. Because they are paranoid and believe any loop hole in the law will allow 'those people' to game the system. Its a fill in the pool argument. They don't want the people that they don't like to have the benefits of anything, really. Because rich/privilege people will always have abortion available to them. Its just an attack on poor and less educated. 

I will correct you. I'm not making a moral argument. Please reread what I wrote. I never mentioned abortion, nor did I imply abortion. I talked about birth control that is available to everyone for free in many instances. It has been around since the first condoms were available in the 1850;s. 

[uncle bernard]

2 hours ago, PortaJohn said:

You're going to somehow have to reconcile the demographics in the Midwest swing states that say you're theory is wrong.  Trump has gained on white voters when Kamala is switched with Biden.  That doesn't bode well in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA 

 

 

[Paul158]

2 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

 

 

Most polls are showing a 5 % pump with blacks. That still leaves Trump at !9 to 20%. Which about 5% better than he did in 2020..I think Kamala is losing about 20 points with conservative independent women in the swing states. Which I believe a critical factor  

[uncle bernard]

18 minutes ago, Paul158 said:

Most polls are showing a 5 % pump with blacks. That still leaves Trump at !9 to 20%. Which about 5% better than he did in 2020..I think Kamala is losing about 20 points with conservative independent women in the swing states. Which I believe a critical factor  

Where are you seeing this?

[Paul158]

14 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

Where are you seeing this?

just going through the internet reading different articles on the effect Kamala in the swing states. Most are in the Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania area. Kamala is very unpopular with the conservative independent women.

[PortaJohn]

Lol, There's going to be a lot of cherry picking of polls on both sides of the aisle on this thread.  

[Paul158]

29 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

Where are you seeing this?

There are a couple of polling sites that use an average of polls to determine their numbers. 270to win and 538 seem to be pretty fair in their poling. You will have a good number of options on all he different races from president, to congressional, to State mayoral races.  

[uncle bernard]

5 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

Lol, There's going to be a lot of cherry picking of polls on both sides of the aisle on this thread.  

Which is why it will be fun to revisit after the election.

But to address the "cherry picking" the RCP average has Trump up 2 points and half the polls used in it haven't put out polling after Biden dropped out yet.

There's been very little swing state polling in the last week, though the of the few that have been, every one I've seen has Harris gaining.

I'm not saying Trump has no chance. He's still the favorite. I'm just pointing out your position that Kamala has no chance is bizarre and not supported by evidence.

[Paul158]

5 minutes ago, uncle bernard said:

Which is why it will be fun to revisit after the election.

But to address the "cherry picking" the RCP average has Trump up 2 points and half the polls used in it haven't put out polling after Biden dropped out yet.

There's been very little swing state polling in the last week, though the of the few that have been, every one I've seen has Harris gaining.

I'm not saying Trump has no chance. He's still the favorite. I'm just pointing out your position that Kamala has no chance is bizarre and not supported by evidence.

As a former wrestler and coach, it isn't over until the fat lady sings. Never underestimate your opponent. Though Trump is favored right now the republicans can screw this up. The democrats will not go down easy. Yes, Kamala has a chance to win, and Trump has a chance to lose.

[ThreePointTakedown]

15 hours ago, Scouts Honor said:

what did her friends in austrailia demonstrate?

therein lies the clue...

Not sure what you're asking. Can you reword the question? 

[ThreePointTakedown]

19 hours ago, Paul158 said:

What if the people who are sexually active and don't want to get pregnant make a responsible choice and use one of the many different types of birth control. There are dozens of safe birth control options. Birth control pills (1960) condoms (1850) these have been around a long time. So, is it lack of education, lazy or just irresponsible? MOST OF THESE ITEMS ARE FREE. I'm going to take cover now for the incoming barrage. I'm not talking about incest or rape or medical difficulties with the mother or the baby. That is a different conversation altogether.

 

2 hours ago, Paul158 said:

3 hours ago, ThreePointTakedown said:

Fair point. Birth control is not 100% effective. Did you know that? What would suggest in that case? 

The 'moral' argument that, it seems like you are raising(correct me if I'm wrong) is not a salient one. You cannot force your, subjective, morality on other people. If you don't have data to express the benefit of your point a 'common sense' or 'moral' argument is worthless. Because it comes back as 'I want what I want because I want it'. Its childish and mean considering the obvious ramifications of not being able to get the health care people need and what could result from that. 

PS. Incest and Rape are also brought up with the morality argument. Making the bars so high to clear that its almost impossible to prove the conditions of a pregnancy under those conditions. That being the point because those who are in favor of banning abortion want to make it very difficult to get any abortion. Let alone one that begins by incest or rape. Because they are paranoid and believe any loop hole in the law will allow 'those people' to game the system. Its a fill in the pool argument. They don't want the people that they don't like to have the benefits of anything, really. Because rich/privilege people will always have abortion available to them. Its just an attack on poor and less educated. 

Did you happen to skip the part about using birth control methods that have been around for over 174 years. Did you skip the part when I asked why smart, intelligent people don't use the available birth control products. Is it lack of education, laziness or just irresponsible.  I don't think I mentioned abortion whether right or wrong. Please show me. I'm serious. Show me.

 

First two words acknowledged your points. Not sure what points you were trying to make but ok. I just wanted to confirm that you knew the the methods of birth control you mentioned are not 100% effective. 

The abortion point was the next step of the conversation, I feel. That states are refusing to allow health care needs to some sexually active people is either ignorant or malicious. And I don't feel they are honest with their reasons for curtailing abortion options for pregnant people. 

Hope that helped. 

Ps. Do you understand that birth control methods are not 100% effective? 

[ThreePointTakedown]

2 hours ago, Paul158 said:

I will correct you. I'm not making a moral argument. Please reread what I wrote. I never mentioned abortion, nor did I imply abortion. I talked about birth control that is available to everyone for free in many instances. It has been around since the first condoms were available in the 1850;s. 

Glad you tried to correct me. What are your thoughts on that issue then? Care to share? BTW, birth control is not available for everyone for free. Before you say something like you should know who does not have access to free birth control. 

Does someone have the right to use your body to sustain itself, without your consent? 

[WrestlingRasta]

13 minutes ago, ThreePointTakedown said:

Glad you tried to correct me. What are your thoughts on that issue then? Care to share? BTW, birth control is not available for everyone for free. Before you say something like you should know who does not have access to free birth control. 

Does someone have the right to use your body to sustain itself, without your consent? 

Unless it's rape, it's not without consent.

[Paul158]

1 hour ago, ThreePointTakedown said:

 

 

First two words acknowledged your points. Not sure what points you were trying to make but ok. I just wanted to confirm that you knew the the methods of birth control you mentioned are not 100% effective. 

The abortion point was the next step of the conversation, I feel. That states are refusing to allow health care needs to some sexually active people is either ignorant or malicious. And I don't feel they are honest with their reasons for curtailing abortion options for pregnant people. 

Hope that helped. 

Ps. Do you understand that birth control methods are not 100% effective? 

I'm a father of 5 children.  I have 4 daughters and 1 son. All are married and have 3 children each. I have 10 granddaughters and 5 grandsons. Do you think I am aware that birth control methods are not 100%. I cleared laid out what this discussion is about. I'm not going to be distracted with your desire to move the goal posts. 

[Offthemat]

17 minutes ago, Paul158 said:

I'm a father of 5 children.  I have 4 daughters and 1 son. All are married and have 3 children each. I have 10 granddaughters and 5 grandsons. Do you think I am aware that birth control methods are not 100%. I cleared laid out what this discussion is about. I'm not going to be distracted with your desire to move the goal posts. 

Well done grandpa, well done.