Chance of a Team w 8, 9, 10AA's this year

[Elevator]

More likely than not that a team gets to these milestones?  Would probably take the over at 8 and the under at 10 for PSU.  A couple of other programs might be in range.  How rare is it.  I recall a Minnesota team that had a very balanced team, but too lazy to look it up.

Shorter: is this going to be an historic year for team balance?

[NM1965]

PSU will finish 75 points ahead of the 2nd place team. The usual rabble will scramble for places 2-5. I have PSU with All Americans at all weights except for Kasak at 149, and I give him a 50/50 chance of making AA. There are 2 other weights (133, 184) where I'm not 100% sure, but I think it very likely that Nagao and Truax place. There's a real chance that all of PSU's guys make AA and that 3 or more more win titles. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

3 hours ago, Elevator said:

More likely than not that a team gets to these milestones?  Would probably take the over at 8 and the under at 10 for PSU.  A couple of other programs might be in range.  How rare is it.  I recall a Minnesota team that had a very balanced team, but too lazy to look it up.

Shorter: is this going to be an historic year for team balance?

I have PSU at 7.64 AAs. Over simplifying the numbers, you could say that is a 64% chance of 8 and a 36% of 9. But you could as easily spread those probabilities across more possibilities, even from 0 to 10. 

• That assumes wrestling to the average result (which is a little below seed).
• But as PSU has a history of wrestling to seed,
• And let's face it, Starocci's probability of AAing from the #9 seed is a tad higher than the normal 9 seed. 
• But maybe Davis' probability should also be below a normal #1 seed.
• So, I think I talked myself back to 7.64
• But if you want to give Starocci the bump, and not discount Davis, then the are highly likely to get 8 with a chance of 9.

Next closest is NC State at 5.56 (i,e. 56% chance of 6, 44% chance of 5).

[Wrestleknownothing]

As for team balance, yes, I think it will be a historic year. There is just about nothing separating 3-11.

[whaletail]

5 hours ago, Elevator said:

More likely than not that a team gets to these milestones?  Would probably take the over at 8 and the under at 10 for PSU.  A couple of other programs might be in range.  How rare is it.  I recall a Minnesota team that had a very balanced team, but too lazy to look it up.

Shorter: is this going to be an historic year for team balance?

I'm pretty sure Minnesota won the 2000 NCAAs with 10 AAs, but no champs.

As for 2024 PSU, 10 AAs wouldn't shock me at all, but I'd guess 8.  Not sure who I'd leave out though.

Interestingly, Davis probably has one of the tougher paths to AA, and he's a 1 seed.

 

[ionel]

14 minutes ago, whaletail said:

I'm pretty sure Minnesota won the 2000 NCAAs with 10 AAs, but no champs.

As for 2024 PSU, 10 AAs wouldn't shock me at all, but I'd guess 8.  Not sure who I'd leave out though.

Interestingly, Davis probably has one of the tougher paths to AA, and he's a 1 seed.

 

[lu_alum]

22 minutes ago, whaletail said:

I'm pretty sure Minnesota won the 2000 NCAAs with 10 AAs, but no champs.

As for 2024 PSU, 10 AAs wouldn't shock me at all, but I'd guess 8.  Not sure who I'd leave out though.

Interestingly, Davis probably has one of the tougher paths to AA, and he's a 1 seed.

 

No finalists.

[Fadzaev2]

26 minutes ago, whaletail said:

I'm pretty sure Minnesota won the 2000 NCAAs with 10 AAs, but no champs.

As for 2024 PSU, 10 AAs wouldn't shock me at all, but I'd guess 8.  Not sure who I'd leave out though.

Interestingly, Davis probably has one of the tougher paths to AA, and he's a 1 seed.

 

Close.....2001  

[ionel]

8 minutes ago, Fadzaev2 said:

Close.....2001  

Still on 2400 baud? 

[whaletail]

By my admittedly quick count, 7/10 Minnesota wrestlers equaled or exceeded their seed in 2001.

Wonder how that compares against recent PSU teams.

 

 

[1032004]

5 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I have PSU at 7.64 AAs. Over simplifying the numbers, you could say that is a 64% chance of 8 and a 36% of 9. But you could as easily spread those probabilities across more possibilities, even from 0 to 10. 

• That assumes wrestling to the average result (which is a little below seed).
• But as PSU has a history of wrestling to seed,
• And let's face it, Starocci's probability of AAing from the #9 seed is a tad higher than the normal 9 seed. 
• But maybe Davis' probability should also be below a normal #1 seed.
• So, I think I talked myself back to 7.64
• But if you want to give Starocci the bump, and not discount Davis, then the are highly likely to get 8 with a chance of 9.

Next closest is NC State at 5.56 (i,e. 56% chance of 6, 44% chance of 5).

What is PSU’s probability for 10?

And Starocci should be considered a 1.  I’d be OK bumping Davis down to 5 or 6 though.

[Wrestleknownothing]

8 hours ago, 1032004 said:

What is PSU’s probability for 10?

And Starocci should be considered a 1.  I’d be OK bumping Davis down to 5 or 6 though.

Dropping Davis down to 60% (same as a #6 seed) and moving Starocci up to 98% (same as a #1 seed) puts the probability of all ten at 5.4%. Which is roughly equivalent to the probability they end with only 7 AAs. Said another way, 10 AAs is more likely than only 6.

 

[1032004]

56 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Dropping Davis down to 60% (same as a #6 seed) and moving Starocci up to 98% (same as a #1 seed) puts the probability of all ten at 5.4%. Which is roughly equivalent to the probability they end with only 7 AAs. Said another way, 10 AAs is more likely than only 6.

 

“Only” 7 AA’s lol, man seems kinda crazy to say that 

[NM1965]

55 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Dropping Davis down to 60% (same as a #6 seed) and moving Starocci up to 98% (same as a #1 seed) puts the probability of all ten at 5.4%. Which is roughly equivalent to the probability they end with only 7 AAs. Said another way, 10 AAs is more likely than only 6.

 

The problem with that prediction is that Carter Starocci is actually going to score at least 20 points regardless of where they seed him. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 minutes ago, NM1965 said:

The problem with that prediction is that Carter Starocci is actually going to score at least 20 points regardless of where they seed him. 

I think the general consensus is Starocci will score more than a normal #9 seed and Davis will score less than a normal #1 seed, so maybe call it a push. But historically, PSU scores more than a normal any seed. So, maybe my overall estimate is a little low.

As I like to say about predictions like these, they are all wrong but right on average.

[NM1965]

1 minute ago, 1032004 said:

“Only” 7 AA’s lol, man seems kinda crazy to say that 

That seems pretty pessimistic to me. There are 6 "locks" to make the semifinals: Bartlett, Haines, MM, Starocci, Brooks and Kerkvliet. Davis is #1 seed but we all know 125 is nuts this year. Still, I think he's got a high chance to AA. 133 has Nagao, I have little doubt he finishes top 6. Kasak has wrestled very tough this year, I think he's got about 50/50 chance of AA (probably better than 50/50), and I think Truax will make the semifinals and thus AA. Plus PSU always amps it up at NCAAs. 

I think PSU has a very good chance to have 10 AAs. I'd say 50% chance or better. I also think they'll win at least 3 individual titles (174, 197, HWT), and probably another. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

46 minutes ago, NM1965 said:

That seems pretty pessimistic to me. There are 6 "locks" to make the semifinals: Bartlett, Haines, MM, Starocci, Brooks and Kerkvliet. Davis is #1 seed but we all know 125 is nuts this year. Still, I think he's got a high chance to AA. 133 has Nagao, I have little doubt he finishes top 6. Kasak has wrestled very tough this year, I think he's got about 50/50 chance of AA (probably better than 50/50), and I think Truax will make the semifinals and thus AA. Plus PSU always amps it up at NCAAs. 

I think PSU has a very good chance to have 10 AAs. I'd say 50% chance or better. I also think they'll win at least 3 individual titles (174, 197, HWT), and probably another. 

I think you are reading that backwards. What it is saying is that the odds of exactly 7 are roughly the same as the odds of exactly 10. Conversely, the odds of exactly 8 or exactly 9 are higher than either exactly 7 or exactly 10.

As for the odds of all 10, perhaps it is better to reframe the question. Based on the commercials I see for betting apps, they are pushing parlay bets HARD. If you were offered a ten wrestler parlay on PSU wrestlers all AAing for a 3:1 payout (i.e. better payout than 50% chance would suggest), would you find that attractive?

Before you answer that question, remember that in the 8 AA era only one team has ever had all 10 wrestlers AA. And in those 44 years all of the #1 and all of the #2 seeds have AAed only 11 times.

For me, I would want at least 20:1 to find that bet interesting.

[NM1965]

35 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I think you are reading that backwards. What it is saying is that the odds of exactly 7 are roughly the same as the odds of exactly 10. Conversely, the odds of exactly 8 or exactly 9 are higher than either exactly 7 or exactly 10.

As for the odds of all 10, perhaps it is better to reframe the question. Based on the commercials I see for betting apps, they are pushing parlay bets HARD. If you were offered a ten wrestler parlay on PSU wrestlers all AAing for a 3:1 payout (i.e. better payout than 50% chance would suggest), would you find that attractive?

Before you answer that question, remember that in the 8 AA era only one team has ever had all 10 wrestlers AA. And in those 44 years all of the #1 and all of the #2 seeds have AAed only 11 times.

For me, I would want at least 20:1 to find that bet interesting.

I only bet on sure things, like poker

[1032004]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I think the general consensus is Starocci will score more than a normal #9 seed and Davis will score less than a normal #1 seed, so maybe call it a push. But historically, PSU scores more than a normal any seed. So, maybe my overall estimate is a little low.

As I like to say about predictions like these, they are all wrong but right on average.

Well we know Starocci is going to win, so it’s only a push if Davis loses in the R12 (which is very possible)

[1032004]

1 hour ago, NM1965 said:

That seems pretty pessimistic to me. There are 6 "locks" to make the semifinals: Bartlett, Haines, MM, Starocci, Brooks and Kerkvliet. Davis is #1 seed but we all know 125 is nuts this year. Still, I think he's got a high chance to AA. 133 has Nagao, I have little doubt he finishes top 6. Kasak has wrestled very tough this year, I think he's got about 50/50 chance of AA (probably better than 50/50), and I think Truax will make the semifinals and thus AA. Plus PSU always amps it up at NCAAs. 

I think PSU has a very good chance to have 10 AAs. I'd say 50% chance or better. I also think they'll win at least 3 individual titles (174, 197, HWT), and probably another. 

Yeah that’s my point.  7 AA’s is basically worst case scenario for them, which is pretty crazy.

[Elevator]

16 hours ago, ionel said:

I think it is a little tougher to get 10 AA than in that time period - not that it was easy.

[Elevator]

2 hours ago, NM1965 said:

That seems pretty pessimistic to me. There are 6 "locks" to make the semifinals: Bartlett, Haines, MM, Starocci, Brooks and Kerkvliet. Davis is #1 seed but we all know 125 is nuts this year. Still, I think he's got a high chance to AA. 133 has Nagao, I have little doubt he finishes top 6. Kasak has wrestled very tough this year, I think he's got about 50/50 chance of AA (probably better than 50/50), and I think Truax will make the semifinals and thus AA. Plus PSU always amps it up at NCAAs. 

I think PSU has a very good chance to have 10 AAs. I'd say 50% chance or better. I also think they'll win at least 3 individual titles (174, 197, HWT), and probably another. 

This seems to underestimate the risks at this tournament overall.  And I say this hoping PSU gets to 10 AA's!  there will be so many one score matches that they have to win.   Assuming he is healthy, Brooks seems like a lock to make semis but Starocci injur is an unknown.   Kerk pretty close to a lock but even if more likely than not, do not see BB, MM or Haines in semis lock territory.  

[1032004]

1 hour ago, Elevator said:

I think it is a little tougher to get 10 AA than in that time period - not that it was easy.

It may be harder to AA now, but the transfer portal has helped PSU put together this super team, considering 40% of their lineup is transfers 

[ionel]

1 hour ago, Elevator said:

I think it is a little tougher to get 10 AA than in that time period - not that it was easy.

Given this is the only time, I'd say it was pretty hard before and after.  As said transfer portal prob makes it easier.  When you have top programs bringing in four 5/6th year senior AAs that makes it much easier.

[dragit]

21 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

 

• And let's face it, Starocci's probability of AAing from the #9 seed is a tad higher than the normal 9 seed.

L'tle bit, yeah