What does it mean we default on Jun 1

[mspart]

The House has a plan all ready to go.  

mspart

[mspart]

What would be the problem of adopting 2019 levels of spending?   That should bring the deficit way down with ability to pay off some of the debt.   What we spend today, revenue catches up with in a few years.   We just need to readjust. 

mspart

[Mike Parrish]

3 minutes ago, mspart said:

What would be the problem of adopting 2019 levels of spending?   That should bring the deficit way down with ability to pay off some of the debt.   What we spend today, revenue catches up with in a few years.   We just need to readjust. 

mspart

The House should write that up and send the Senate their bill.

Doing it via blackmail over defaulting on debt for money that's already spent is morally and ethically bankrupt.

[WrestlingRasta]

This is all like foreign language to me. I honestly don’t know what any of you guys are talking about. 
 

(My contribution for the day)

[Wrestleknownothing]

3 hours ago, WrestlingRasta said:

This is all like foreign language to me. I honestly don’t know what any of you guys are talking about. 
 

(My contribution for the day)

That's nothing. There are guys on here who think pinfall is a foreign language.

[mspart]

17 hours ago, Mike Parrish said:

The House should write that up and send the Senate their bill.

Doing it via blackmail over defaulting on debt for money that's already spent is morally and ethically bankrupt.

First, the House has presented a bill to the Senate.   It is not blackmail as you suggest, it is reducing spending that got us in the inflation trouble we are in, and it is increasing the debt limit.   That is a compromise position.   That is what democracy is about.   The previous Congress authorized that spending and threw us into massive inflation.   The current Congress, a correction by the voters, wants to reduce that spending.   Effectively that is what the voters voted for is it not?  https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/23/politics/cnn-poll-debt-ceiling-increase-spending-cuts/index.html     Demonstrably so.  Which is why Biden decided to "negotiate" but he is not doing much to move the ball to completion. 

What is morally and ethically bankrupt is having put us in this position in the first place.  Frankly, the D's and Rs should take full responsibility with that from 2001 and on.   The R's are taking a stand against runaway spending right now, the D's are saying that is blackmail.   Who is morally and unethical? 

A proposal that offers fiscal discipline later for relief now, will never materialize later.   It never does.  No one that is anyone in constitutional law expertise circles thinks the 14th amendment being bandied about is a solution.    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/23/debt-limit-solution-14th-amendment/

If you think the Rs are negotiating in bad faith by saying debt ceiling rise comes with spending reductions, let's look at the D's position.   No change to spending and a rise in the debt ceiling - period.   And they are holding to that apparently trying to put the Rs in the hot seat.   The R's have a plan to resolve this, the D's don't.  

I understand there are different ways to look at this, but that is how I look at this.  Compromise is the art of democracy.   So which side is on the side of democracy in this case?   We can all decide.    Those on the left that say our democracy is in danger need to look inside themselves and ask tough questions, because it is clear in my opinion. 

mspart

[Jason Bryant]

That's nothing. There are guys on here who think pinfall is a foreign language.

Don’t you try to bring me into this warped political landscape!!! It’s an apt bowling term and an apt “pro wrestling” term. Find it in just one official NCAA document in the last half-century. It has been written incorrectly for generations.

But much like many a political discussion, facts don’t always matter …

[Wrestleknownothing]

42 minutes ago, Jason Bryant said:

Don’t you try to bring me into this warped political landscape!!! It’s an apt bowling term and an apt “pro wrestling” term. Find it in just one official NCAA document in the last half-century. It has been written incorrectly for generations.

But much like many a political discussion, facts don’t always matter …

You want to say it at NCAAs. You NEED to say it at NCAAs.

pinfall, Pinfall, PINFALL.

As an aside, I had a chuckle the other day when I was watching either a Jason Nolf or a Bo Nickal highlight video. I had to rewind to make sure I heard it right, but sure enough, Christian Pyle said pinfall. And who among us do not aspire to be like CP?

[Jason Bryant]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

You want to say it at NCAAs. You NEED to say it at NCAAs.

pinfall, Pinfall, PINFALL.

As an aside, I had a chuckle the other day when I was watching either a Jason Nolf or a Bo Nickal highlight video. I had to rewind to make sure I heard it right, but sure enough, Christian Pyle said pinfall. And who among us do not aspire to be like CP?

For a guy who hates pro wrestling so much, he certainly likes to use its parlance to annoy me - and yes - he does it (or at least started doing it) to annoy me. Commitment to the gimmick I guess. 

The moment I say it at the NCAAs is the moment I quit doing what I do. When you hear me say it at NCAAs, it means I've given up on all hope and just don't care about the quality of work or respect for our sport. 

Edited May 24, 2023 by Jason Bryant

[mspart]

You gotta admire commitment, up to a point. 

mspart

[BerniePragle]

On 5/23/2023 at 3:09 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

 

The issue is that not enough money will be taken in to pay all obligations: interest payments, principal payments, and other bills (there are 100 separate withdrawal sources on the Daily Treasury Statement - also FICA is the largest deposit on a normal day). So, choices would be made on which payments to make. A default is still possible in that case. The Treasury had $636 billion of cash on hand at the start of the year. It had $57 billion as of May 19.

BTW, I was able to confirm that there are no cross default provisions for Treasuries. So the Treasury can selectively default, or selectively miss interest payments without it affecting other bonds.

Exactly.

You know I'm an extremely simple guy.  Ultimately there is one IN bucket and one OUT bucket.  The Federal government doesn't have enough coming into the IN bucket to offset the OUT bucket.  The fix is more coming in or less going out, or preferably both.
When it's that simple, even I can understand it.  As I've said before, way more things are not understood by making them too complicated than by making them too simple.  I don't think I've ever been BS'd by someone making things simpler.  That's especially important to remember when dealing with any forms of government.

[Mike Parrish]

3 hours ago, BerniePragle said:

Exactly.

You know I'm an extremely simple guy.  Ultimately there is one IN bucket and one OUT bucket.  The Federal government doesn't have enough coming into the IN bucket to offset the OUT bucket.  The fix is more coming in or less going out, or preferably both.
When it's that simple, even I can understand it.  As I've said before, way more things are not understood by making them too complicated than by making them too simple.  I don't think I've ever been BS'd by someone making things simpler.  That's especially important to remember when dealing with any forms of government.

The Trump tax cuts drove the deficit and adding 25% to the national debt in four years.

Trump's fed keeping interest rates near 0 for 4 years drove inflation to the highest point seen in decades.

Trump's failure on COVID killed 400,000 Americans.

 

Simple enough?

[Offthemat]

You’re full of a bunch of crock.  
 

Simple enough?

[Wrestleknownothing]

5 minutes ago, Mike Parrish said:

The Trump tax cuts drove the deficit and adding 25% to the national debt in four years.

Trump's fed keeping interest rates near 0 for 4 years drove inflation to the highest point seen in decades.

Trump's failure on COVID killed 400,000 Americans.

 

Simple enough?

Keeping rates near zero is not what caused inflation. Inflation is a monetary problem. The growth in money supply (particularly M2) is what caused inflation. That is tied directly to pandemic spending.

Similarly, raising rates will only do so much to curb inflation. Addressing money supply issues is the only real sure way to cure inflation. There is some good news on that front.

[Offthemat]

42 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Keeping rates near zero is not what caused inflation. Inflation is a monetary problem. The growth in money supply (particularly M2) is what caused inflation. That is tied directly to pandemic spending.

Similarly, raising rates will only do so much to curb inflation. Addressing money supply issues is the only real sure way to cure inflation. There is some good news on that front.

That is a compounding effect and a slow method to cure it.  The primary driver of this inflation is due to cutting oil and gas production.  As long as we had cheap energy we were able to counter the money printing that began right after Obama was elected.  Everything we have was at one time on a truck.  When energy prices go up, the price of everything goes up.  Then wages have to go up, which means prices have to go up.  It spirals until something drastic halts it.  Changing energy policy would go a long ways in repairing the inflation, and while it would be better than money/interest rate manipulation, its foundational enterprises are so damaged that it wouldn’t happen fast. 

[Bigbrog]

4 hours ago, Mike Parrish said:

The Trump tax cuts drove the deficit and adding 25% to the national debt in four years.

Trump's fed keeping interest rates near 0 for 4 years drove inflation to the highest point seen in decades.

Trump's failure on COVID killed 400,000 Americans.

 

Simple enough?

If nothing else you are predictable

[BerniePragle]

4 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Keeping rates near zero is not what caused inflation. Inflation is a monetary problem. The growth in money supply (particularly M2) is what caused inflation. That is tied directly to pandemic spending.

Similarly, raising rates will only do so much to curb inflation. Addressing money supply issues is the only real sure way to cure inflation. There is some good news on that front.

Is it not a true statement that anytime the government hands anybody (individual, company, welfare) money for doing nothing, that devalues the dollars you and I already have in our pockets?  More dollars "in circulation", no more goods or services in the system.  Hence inflation.  And, there was a lot of that during Covid.  I suspect that some money policy gymnastics were implemented so that the inflation happened under The Next Guy's watch.  Or maybe there is naturally that long of a lag.

One thing that's very important to keep in mind...  EVERYTHING; prices, interest rates, the stock market, inflation are all controlled by a bunch of rich people, always have been.   It would be extremely naive to think they would not be manipulated in such a way as to maximally benefit the people that control them.  Duh.

[mspart]

5 hours ago, Mike Parrish said:

The Trump tax cuts drove the deficit and adding 25% to the national debt in four years.

Trump's fed keeping interest rates near 0 for 4 years drove inflation to the highest point seen in decades.

Trump's failure on COVID killed 400,000 Americans.

 

Simple enough?

So those are interesting stats.   Her are Biden's numbers. 

If 400k died because of Trump, then 1,127,152-400k died because of Biden.   That's 727,152 that died because of Biden.   That's the same metric you are using.  https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us

Official estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) show that, since January 2021, legislation signed by President Biden has set in motion a record $3.37 trillion in new spending, surpassing Trump's previous record of $3.28 trillion during the 116th Congress.  https://reason.com/2022/11/29/bidens-spending-spree-is-unprecedented/

In 2021, Biden introduced a 6.1 Trillion dollar budget.   So that's roughly a 50% increase in spending over the 2021 budget.   https://www.thebalancemoney.com/u-s-federal-budget-breakdown-3305789

As noted, the inflation rate was stable between 2008-20202 with very near 0% interest rates.   Obviously that did not cause the inflation you are speaking of.   You trying to say Trump is bad, only shows that Biden is worse.   Inflation started with the massive spending increases Biden introduced immediately after taking office.   Inflation was tamed before that.   It is such good news that inflation is now down from the highs but still way higher than it was before. 

Good job Mike.   You made a point you didn't think you were making. 

mspart

 

[Mike Parrish]

"If someone drives off a cliff, the next guy is responsible for the crash!"

 

[Offthemat]

4 hours ago, BerniePragle said:

Is it not a true statement that anytime the government hands anybody (individual, company, welfare) money for doing nothing, that devalues the dollars you and I already have in our pockets?  More dollars "in circulation", no more goods or services in the system.  Hence inflation.  And, there was a lot of that during Covid.  I suspect that some money policy gymnastics were implemented so that the inflation happened under The Next Guy's watch.  Or maybe there is naturally that long of a lag.

One thing that's very important to keep in mind...  EVERYTHING; prices, interest rates, the stock market, inflation are all controlled by a bunch of rich people, always have been.   It would be extremely naive to think they would not be manipulated in such a way as to maximally benefit the people that control them.  Duh.

If you’re talking about printing money to give it away then that’s inflationary; if you’re talking about income redistribution, it’s not so inflationary, they took money from one person to give some of it to another.  
 

Inflation was low and stable when biden was inaugurated.  He quickly shut down the Keystone pipeline, drilling, and fracing on federal land.  Congress soon imposed elevated fees on federal leases, eliminating profits to the point that investors have gone elsewhere.  This had a near immediate impact on the price of everything and it’s still going up no matter what the propagandists say.  Just check your grocery bills.  We could, and will if the right guy gets elected, reduce inflation to manageable simply by changing our energy policy.  It would also help our foreign policy by putting pressure on china and russia.  But that doesn’t seem to be the plan for the current guy.  

[Wrestleknownothing]

6 hours ago, BerniePragle said:

Is it not a true statement that anytime the government hands anybody (individual, company, welfare) money for doing nothing, that devalues the dollars you and I already have in our pockets?  More dollars "in circulation", no more goods or services in the system.  Hence inflation.  And, there was a lot of that during Covid.

Generally, yes

 

 I suspect that some money policy gymnastics were implemented so that the inflation happened under The Next Guy's watch.

That would presuppose the last guy knew he would not get re-elected. No last guy has ever believed that.

 

Or maybe there is naturally that long of a lag. 

There is a lag.

 

One thing that's very important to keep in mind...  EVERYTHING; prices, interest rates, the stock market, inflation are all controlled by a bunch of rich people, always have been.   It would be extremely naive to think they would not be manipulated in such a way as to maximally benefit the people that control them.  Duh.

 

[BerniePragle]

11 hours ago, Offthemat said:

If you’re talking about printing money to give it away then that’s inflationary; if you’re talking about income redistribution, it’s not so inflationary, they took money from one person to give some of it to another.  
 

Inflation was low and stable when biden was inaugurated.  He quickly shut down the Keystone pipeline, drilling, and fracing on federal land.  Congress soon imposed elevated fees on federal leases, eliminating profits to the point that investors have gone elsewhere.  This had a near immediate impact on the price of everything and it’s still going up no matter what the propagandists say.  Just check your grocery bills.  We could, and will if the right guy gets elected, reduce inflation to manageable simply by changing our energy policy.  It would also help our foreign policy by putting pressure on china and russia.  But that doesn’t seem to be the plan for the current guy.  

Federal Spending > Federal Income = Printing Money (I think)

The federal government takes money from the middle class and gives it to BOTH the poor and the rich.  Someone (I wish I could remember who) said a number of years ago that the great accomplishment of the rich was to get the middle class to direct their anger downward rather than upward.  You used the phrase "income redistribution", so I suspect you're already aware of the one direction.  The other direction consists of the government handing "our" taxes to Big Oil, Defense Contractors, drug companies, the trucking industry, and many, many more under the guise of "job creation".  A large portion of that money is then given to top management in the form of huge salaries, bonuses, et al.  The concept of wealthy individuals and corporations taking their own money and using it to create new/more business has become a thing of the past.  It is now expected that all a (prospective) business has to do is talk about "creating jobs" and the government coffers spill open.  
Either way, as the old phrase goes, That's no way to run a railroad.

I very vividly remember The Former Guy's first press conference addressing the shutdown due to Covid.  (I remember it because it interrupted The Price is Right, pretty much the only tv I watch, which pissed me off.)  He very emphatically said how "we" will take care of our wonderful, terrific, fantastic hotels, cruise lines, resorts, airlines, etc.  No mention of you, me, or Bobby McGee.  I think that said a lot about his priorities.  No surprise, that's been his whole life.  I'm sure that he's been the first one in line for some of that good ole gobmint money his whole life.  The big mystery to me is why the middle or lower class would think he has the slightest interest in doing anything for them???

[Offthemat]

1 hour ago, BerniePragle said:

Federal Spending > Federal Income = Printing Money (I think)

The federal government takes money from the middle class and gives it to BOTH the poor and the rich.  Someone (I wish I could remember who) said a number of years ago that the great accomplishment of the rich was to get the middle class to direct their anger downward rather than upward.  You used the phrase "income redistribution", so I suspect you're already aware of the one direction.  The other direction consists of the government handing "our" taxes to Big Oil, Defense Contractors, drug companies, the trucking industry, and many, many more under the guise of "job creation".  A large portion of that money is then given to top management in the form of huge salaries, bonuses, et al.  The concept of wealthy individuals and corporations taking their own money and using it to create new/more business has become a thing of the past.  It is now expected that all a (prospective) business has to do is talk about "creating jobs" and the government coffers spill open.  
Either way, as the old phrase goes, That's no way to run a railroad.

I very vividly remember The Former Guy's first press conference addressing the shutdown due to Covid.  (I remember it because it interrupted The Price is Right, pretty much the only tv I watch, which pissed me off.)  He very emphatically said how "we" will take care of our wonderful, terrific, fantastic hotels, cruise lines, resorts, airlines, etc.  No mention of you, me, or Bobby McGee.  I think that said a lot about his priorities.  No surprise, that's been his whole life.  I'm sure that he's been the first one in line for some of that good ole gobmint money his whole life.  The big mystery to me is why the middle or lower class would think he has the slightest interest in doing anything for them???

I’ll concede to “our tax dollars going to defense contractors,” but as to big oil or pharmaceuticals, I have no knowledge of them or rarely any companies, trucking especially, getting checks from the government.  What most people term “corporate welfare” are tax breaks for doing business in a certain way.  Corporate officers all go to the same schools that teach the same pricing formulas so that if you raise their taxes, they just raise the price to the customer.  Corporations don’t pay taxes.  If an oil company gets to pay less corporate tax it benefits the poorest of its customers by reducing the price for their products.  The rich could afford to pay a lot more.  Nobody complains about the obscene profits in “big cosmetics.”  
 

I believe the reason a lot of people believe Trump had their interests in mind started out by the way he was able to articulate them in a way that convinced them.  Just like how he can step into a crowd of construction, or industrial workers, or military, and seem to be one of them.  He relates.  Then in office he did and tried to do everything he said he would, and more.  While he was in, for the first time any of us can remember, blue collar wages were rising at a faster pace than white collar wages.  The Emergency Petroleum Reserve was full, no wars were started, and peace was breaking out everywhere.  Everywhere except the New York Times and a few other newsrooms and dimocrat infestations. 

[BerniePragle]

42 minutes ago, Offthemat said:

I’ll concede to “our tax dollars going to defense contractors,” but as to big oil or pharmaceuticals, I have no knowledge of them or rarely any companies, trucking especially, getting checks from the government.  What most people term “corporate welfare” are tax breaks for doing business in a certain way.  Corporate officers all go to the same schools that teach the same pricing formulas so that if you raise their taxes, they just raise the price to the customer.  Corporations don’t pay taxes.  If an oil company gets to pay less corporate tax it benefits the poorest of its customers by reducing the price for their products.  The rich could afford to pay a lot more.  Nobody complains about the obscene profits in “big cosmetics.”  
 

I believe the reason a lot of people believe Trump had their interests in mind started out by the way he was able to articulate them in a way that convinced them.  Just like how he can step into a crowd of construction, or industrial workers, or military, and seem to be one of them.  He relates.  Then in office he did and tried to do everything he said he would, and more.  While he was in, for the first time any of us can remember, blue collar wages were rising at a faster pace than white collar wages.  The Emergency Petroleum Reserve was full, no wars were started, and peace was breaking out everywhere.  Everywhere except the New York Times and a few other newsrooms and dimocrat infestations. 

Let me explain how the trucking industry specifically gets government money.  The cost of roads, paid for by "our" taxes, grows exponentially to accomodate truck traffic.  The roads have to be built wider, deeper bases, the bridges have to be higher, etc.  Also, the roads have to be repaired much more because of truck traffic.  Drive in the right lane, then the passing lane here in NYS or PA and notice this.  If Reagan didn't get a stiffy for the railroads back in the 80s, we would have a lot less tractor trailers on the PUBLIC roads, conducting private business.  This would be the same as me going into a public school, setting up a table and chair and selling candy to the kids during school hours.
The last I knew, the federal government was subsidizing Big Oil to the tune of 30 billion a year to drill.  I also remember quite a few years ago when the CEO of Exxon Mobil retired with a half billion dollar package.

As far as trump's appeal to the lower and middle classes... The Father, Son, and Holy Ghost could explain that to me and it would still make no sense.  A NYC, prep school, rich kid who has always been a part of, and catered to the jet set, somehow endears himself to the (below) average American.  Baffling, except he is a tough talker...  We aren't gonna let them(?) get away with that anymore!  All the "drain the swamp" talk.  trump, and his daddy, are, were, and always will be "the swamp".  I'm beyond certain that trump and his daddy benefited vastly from government money.  (NYC real estate... you do the math.)

Well, it's a beautiful weekend in Upstate NY.  Enough of this nonsense.  Sheep will follow the shepherd.

[Mike Parrish]

5 minutes ago, BerniePragle said:

As far as trump's appeal to the lower and middle classes... The Father, Son, and Holy Ghost could explain that to me and it would still make no sense.  A NYC, prep school, rich kid who has always been a part of, and catered to the jet set, somehow endears himself to the (below) average American.  Baffling, except he is a tough talker...  We aren't gonna let them(?) get away with that anymore!  All the "drain the swamp" talk.  trump, and his daddy, are, were, and always will be "the swamp".  I'm beyond certain that trump and his daddy benefited vastly from government money.  (NYC real estate... you do the math.)

Trump gives them permission to be their worst selves.