Top 2xer of the WrestleStat Era

[nhs67]

2 minutes ago, ionel said:

Ever heard of Dan Gable or Spencer Lee?

Dan Gable is not Wrestlestat Era.  Don't count.

See below on Spencer.

2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I had similar thoughts about Spencer Lee, Zahid Valencia, and Vincenzo Joseph in their last year.

Spencer Lee had zero knees.  The hindsight is there.  He quit last year because he was too hurt and didn't get enough healtime after what would have been career ending surgery for >99% of the rest of the NCAA fields.  Don't count.

Zahid Valencia loved cocaine.  He didn't lose at Natties.  Don't count.

Cenzo lost to Covid and never got his 4th shot.  Don't count.

You predicting Parrisdaddy pisses hot for WWE roids or has some sort of career ending injury?  If so, then all the others you can't count can be counted.

[ionel]

3 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Dan Gable is not Wrestlestat Era.  

Think the point went right over your head.

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Dan Gable is not Wrestlestat Era.  Don't count.

See below on Spencer.

Spencer Lee had zero knees.  The hindsight is there.  He quit last year because he was too hurt and didn't get enough healtime after what would have been career ending surgery for >99% of the rest of the NCAA fields.  Don't count.

Zahid Valencia loved cocaine.  He didn't lose at Natties.  Don't count.

Cenzo lost to Covid and never got his 4th shot.  Don't count.

You predicting Parrisdaddy pisses hot for WWE roids or has some sort of career ending injury?  If so, then all the others you can't count can be counted.

I'm not predicting a thing. The point is a lot is unpredictable. I didn't predict Lee getting pinned, Valencia getting stupid, or the world getting sick. Oh, and I didn't predict Ferrari driving on the wrong side of the road or Peyton Robb almost having a leg amputated. There are five examples in just the past four seasons. 

[nhs67]

18 minutes ago, ionel said:

Think the point went right over your head.

Not possible.  My reflexes are too fast.

16 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I'm not predicting a thing. The point is a lot is unpredictable. I didn't predict Lee getting pinned, Valencia getting stupid, or the world getting sick. Oh, and I didn't predict Ferrari driving on the wrong side of the road or Peyton Robb almost having a leg amputated. There are five examples in just the past four seasons. 

If he wrestles he wins.

How many total wrestlers wrestled in the last five seasons?  5000?  5 / 5000 = 0.1%

If he wrestles there is ~99.9% chance he wins.

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Not possible.  My reflexes are too fast.

If he wrestles he wins.

How many total wrestlers wrestled in the last five seasons?  5000?  5 / 5000 = 0.1%

If he wrestles there is ~99.9% chance he wins.

I think it is 81 teams, so 810 times 4 (not 5, this is why you leave the math to me) or 3,240.

But that is not even the correct denominator. I named 5 FAVORITES off the top of my head, not five random guys hoping to get the 33 seed.

Now we are at 5 of 40. Yikes. Steveson doesn't stand a chance. No wonder he probably doesn't come back.

[nhs67]

Just now, Wrestleknownothing said:

I think it is 81 teams, so 810 times 4 (not 5, this is why you leave the math to me) or 3,240.

But that is not even the correct denominator. I named 5 FAVORITES off the top of my head, not five random guys hoping to get the 33 seed.

Now we are at 5 of 40. Yikes. Steveson doesn't stand a chance. No wonder he probably doesn't come back.

Shit.

I concede, damn it!

[Wrestleknownothing]

10 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Shit.

I concede, damn it!

Then I change my answer. He is 110% guaranteed to win, even if he doesn't wrestle. Prove me wrong, math nerd.

[ionel]

11 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Shit.

I concede, damn it!

Now don't be trying to get porta on your side.  

[PortaJohn]

15 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Then I change my answer. He is 110% guaranteed to win, even if he doesn't wrestle. Prove me wrong, math nerd.

 

15 minutes ago, ionel said:

Now don't be trying to get porta on your side.  

Am I the only one offended that we're calling all these great wrestlers two timers?  They all completed their careers with the school that recruited them except for Suriano who's the only two timer on this list, or is he a three timer, or twice a two timer?

Edited May 5, 2023 by PortaJohn

[nhs67]

1 hour ago, PortaJohn said:

 

Am I the only one offended that we're calling all these great wrestlers two timers?  They all completed their careers with the school that recruited them except for Suriano who's the only two timer on this list, or is he a three timer, or twice a two timer?

Four timer.  ASU as well.

[Wrestleknownothing]

I waited to share:

Let's start by acknowledging the obvious. The Covid complications are a real issue for any numbers-based analysis. Among our eight are three wrestlers who only had three shots at the tournament (though each for a different reason and only one due to Covid). This makes counting stats very difficult to assess. So, I also include some season averages. 

But even then, how do you account for Zahid Valencia and Nick Suriano, who had four regular seasons, but only three tournaments? Well, I dealt with them harshly. In the case of Suriano, who was entered, but did not wrestle the tournament, I gave him credit for 33^rd the year he did not wrestle. In the case of Valencia, who was suspended while ranked #1, I gave him credit for 34th. Reasonable people might handle this differently. But only unreasonable people waste their time pulling all the data, so there is that.

In the end though, I am not sure it makes any difference. Valencia still comes out on top when reduced to rankings by category.

As a reminder,

• The pinfall, tech, and major percentages are percentages of matches that ended at or below that category.
• Pinfall, TF and MD rank are the average WrestleStat ranking of the defeated wrestler, so higher is better.
• Pinfall and TF time are the average amount of time it took to get the fall or tech. So, lower is better.

[nhs67]

Before completing your post I saw and thought 'Man... this looks like Zahid then Dabe Gean.'  Then I saw I was correct.

Thank you.

[11986]

re Gabe Dean and in no way to diminish the stats work of that no nothing guy, but keep in mind also that he was called 'destroyer of worlds' on the old forums and but for a 1 point finals loss to Bo Nickal would be in a different category all together. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 minutes ago, 11986 said:

re Gabe Dean and in no way to diminish the stats work of that no nothing guy, but keep in mind also that he was called 'destroyer of worlds' on the old forums and but for a 1 point finals loss to Bo Nickal would be in a different category all together. 

I see it.

Not only did he pin a ton of guys, he pinned the toughest guys among two and three timers (Spencer Lee would be second at an average rank of 50). And your right, a 1 point lose to a 3xer puts him in rarified air for 2xers.