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Guess the 2023 NCAA champs

peanut

By peanut
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TylerDurden College Redshirt

TylerDurden

Posted
Posted

Going through this, I was surprised that there were only two weights I hesitated at all to pick a winner: 141 and 197.  For me, the other eight weights had clear favorites.

Wt. - Winner, School - Confidence (10 being most confident)

125 - Spencer Lee, Iowa (10) - I don't see anyone in the field who can beat him. 

133 - Roman Bravo Young, Penn State (8) - There are a couple of potential landmines in Fix and Vito, but they're on the other side of the bracket. 

141 - Andrew Alirez, Northern Colorado (2) - Pretty low confidence in this pick, but not because of Alirez and his talent. Woods is definitely a contender (and perhaps the true favorite) and there have been close matches among the top seeds in this weight. I could see this bracket going crazy, despite two unbeaten wrestlers. 

149 - Yanni Diakomihalis, Cornell (9) - Despite the early loss to Gomez, I can't see anyone clipping Yanni. 

157 - Austin O'Connor, North Carolina (6) - O'Connor got a pretty good draw, IMO. Not much in his path to the final, whereas the bottom half is much more competitive. Lewan might keep the score close, and Franek could do the same, but those scores will be lying to you as AOC cruises into the final.  

165 - David Carr, Iowa State (4) - Crazy bracket at 165. To me, Carr is the clear favorite, but I can't feel too confident when you have this amount of quality in the field. 

174 - Carter Starocci, Penn State (7) - This is a battle for second between Lewis and Labriola. Starocci is on his way to being one of the best ever 

184 - Aaron Brooks, Penn State (3) - I should have Brooks higher on my confidence ranking, because I think he's a top 5 NCAA wrestler, but I can't ignore Hidlay and Keckeisen. Brooks is better than both, but likely will have to beat both to win. 

197 - Nino Bonaccorsi, Pitt (1) - Nino is the default pick as the No. 1 seed, but I don't have any confidence in this. Dean/Allred are 8/9 - both could beat Nino. 197 is not for the faint of heart. Wouldn't be surprised to see any of these guys win: Nino, Dean, Allred, Beard, Laird, Elam, Warner (yes, Warner), Trumble, Sloan,  Cardenas, Truax. 

HWT - Mason Parris, Michigan (5) - Parris is healthy this year and looks fantastic...BUT...there are guys in this field who can beat him and based on that, I give Parris a 50/50 shot at a title. 

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Pinnacle NCAA All-American

Pinnacle

Posted
Posted

Having seen Hidlay vs. Brooks before my confidence is high that Hidlay will become a human Peleton in this match, giving the boundary a complete workout as he stays as far from Brooks as possible while trying to lull him into reaching too far just one time. 

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ionel Big Brain

ionel

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Pinnacle said:

Maybe Glory can beat Spencer Lee if Princeton engineered some sort of magic potion to get him up to 160lbs by match time. 

Magic, I thought that was his natural weight?

.

Packard State Qualifier

Packard

Posted
Posted

125 - Lee over Glory

133 - RBY over Fix (Don't think it's will happen, but I could see Fix winning here. He has to have been working for 12 months straight on RBY alone)

141 - Real Woods over Beau Bartlett (I could see this flip with Penn State Magic)

149 - Yianni over Mauler

156 - AOC over Haines

165 - Carr over Hamiti

174 - Carter over Lewis

184 - Brooks over Keckeison

197 - Allred over Truax

285 - Kerkvliet over Schultz

 

Although neither scenario is likely, I could see Penn State with between 2 and 7 champions. 

Fix can potentially beat RBY

A few upsets from other wrestlers and Beau Bartlett could be in the finals.

Penn State freshmen have magic in the finals. Could Haines beat AOC?

Lewis is the type of guy who could knock off Young

I don't think Brooks has another letdown

197 is wild. I could see Dean as the Natty, but also not AA.

I wouldn't say I like watching Schultz, but he's a huge dude with big move potential. I could see him upsetting Parris.

 

 

 

ScarletKnight State Placer

ScarletKnight

Posted
Posted
On 3/9/2023 at 11:57 PM, CHROMEBIRD said:

Glory won't make the finals.

Who will beat him?  He's beaten kaylor and Courtney kind of easily. He'd have mckee or Cronin at night where he's fully recovered from his weight cut

He's beaten Miller and Ungar twice already too. I don't see him being challenged before Lee match

 

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D3 for LU Big Brain

D3 for LU

Posted
Posted

Hard choice... I don't who they'll be, but I DO know that they'll win it!

D3

Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.

D3 for LU Big Brain

D3 for LU

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, D3 for LU said:

Hard choice... I don't who they'll be, but I DO know that they'll win it!

D3

FittingTintedAfricanrockpython-size_rest

Hey... I thought it was a yukker (nyuk, nyuk, nyuk.)

D3

Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.

500 wrestler Junior Varsity

500 wrestler

Posted
Posted

Key: 1st (% Confidence they will win) / 2nd (% Confidence that they willwin) / (% confidence that someone else in the field wins, with 0 meaning < 1%):

125: Lee (95) / Glory (5%) / 0%

133: RBY (65%) / FIx (30%) / 5% 

141: Alirez (40%) / Woods (35%) / 25%

149: Yanni (90%) / Sasso (5%) / 5%

157: AOC (45%) / Robb (25%) / 30%

165: Carr (55%) / O'Toole (35%) / 10%

174: Starocci (90%) / Lewis (10%) / 0%

184: Brooks (75%) / Keckeisen (15%) / 10%

197: Bonaccorsi (25%) / Elam (20%) / 55%

Hvy: Parris (45%) / Kerk (30%) / 25%

CHROMEBIRD Big Brain

CHROMEBIRD

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, 500 wrestler said:

Key: 1st (% Confidence they will win) / 2nd (% Confidence that they willwin) / (% confidence that someone else in the field wins, with 0 meaning < 1%):

Thanks. I like the confidence %s. Would you be willing to add a confidence rating that someone else in the field makes the finals?

So they key would be: 1st (% Confidence they will win) / 2nd (% Confidence they will win) / Other finalist (% Confidence that someone else in the field makes the finals) / Other winner (% Confidence someone else in the field wins it all) 

500 wrestler Junior Varsity

500 wrestler

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

Thanks. I like the confidence %s. Would you be willing to add a confidence rating that someone else in the field makes the finals?

So they key would be: 1st (% Confidence they will win) / 2nd (% Confidence they will win) / Other finalist (% Confidence that someone else in the field makes the finals) / Other winner (% Confidence someone else in the field wins it all) 

Your question makes me realize my percentages were incomplete. Here is some more info, for example:

165: Carr (55%) / O'Toole (35%) / 10%

I give Carr a 55% chance to win it all. I expect him to meet O'Toole in the final, and I give O'Toole a 35% chance to win it all. I give the rest of the field 10%  chance to win it all.

You didn't ask this, but If I were to break it down further, in this case I would give Carr about an 85% chance to make the finals (since I am pulling these numbers out of my ass I might as will do it with confidence) and O'Toole a 75% chance to get to the finals. In retrospect my maybe 10% was too high for the rest of the field, but there are a lot of good wrestlers at that weight and who knows what will happen.

Note: all of my finalists were on opposite sides of the bracket as they should be. It would be possible (but not at all likely) for my 2 most likely winners to come from the same side of the bracket.

As far as what you asked (confidence that another wrestler makes the finals), that could be derived from the last 2 percentages that I provided (85 and 75) . But there are really 3 cases: 1. Carr and someone else, 2. O' Toole and someone else, and 3. two other finalists. The math is not too hard (was a math major decades ago) but I'll leave that to someone else 🙂

Edited by 500 wrestler
500 wrestler Junior Varsity

500 wrestler

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, 500 wrestler said:

Your question makes me realize my percentages were incomplete. Here is some more info, for example:

165: Carr (55%) / O'Toole (35%) / 10%

I give Carr a 55% chance to win it all. I expect him to meet O'Toole in the final, and I give O'Toole a 35% chance to win it all. I give the rest of the field 10%  chance to win it all.

You didn't ask this, but If I were to break it down further, in this case I would give Carr about an 85% chance to make the finals (since I am pulling these numbers out of my ass I might as will do it with confidence) and O'Toole a 75% chance to get to the finals. In retrospect my maybe 10% was too high for the rest of the field, but there are a lot of good wrestlers at that weight and who knows what will happen.

Note: all of my finalists were on opposite sides of the bracket as they should be. It would be possible (but not at all likely) for my 2 most likely winners to come from the same side of the bracket.

As far as what you asked (confidence that another wrestler makes the finals), that could be derived from the last 2 percentages that I provided (85 and 75) . But there are really 3 cases: 1. Carr and someone else, 2. O' Toole and someone else, and 3. two other finalists. The math is not too hard (was a math major decades ago) but I'll leave that to someone else 🙂

Apologies for nerding out here... if we were to assume my 87/75 chances of Carr and O'Toole each getting to the final were correct (which would be a big mistake), then the probabilities of the 4 options are:

  1. Carr and O'Toole in finals: .85*.75 = 64%
  2. Carr and someone else: .85 * (1-.75) = 21%
  3. O'Toole and Someone else: (1-.85) * .75 = 11%
  4. Two other people: (1-.85) * (1-.75) = 4% 

If I was building my original 55/35 numbers from the above, I would then assign likelihood of Carr or O'Toole winning in each of the first 3 scenarios above. But of course I did not do that, I just guessed the numbers. I could back into those numbers pretty easily though, but that that point I'm just assigning percentages to support my original numbers.

What do I know, it will probably be Hamiti over Ramirez...

flyingcement Big Brain

flyingcement

Posted
Posted

If I had to choose a national champion that was only from SoCon or MAC, I guess it would be:

125: Caleb Smith

133: Brayden Palmer

141: McKenzie Bell

149: Jon Millner

157: Peter Pappas

165: Izzak Olejnik

174: Rocky Jordan

184: Will Feldkamp

197: Ethan Laird

285: Taye Ghadiali

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hawkguy State Qualifier

hawkguy

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

If I had to choose a national champion that was only from SoCon or MAC, I guess it would be:

125: Caleb Smith

133: Brayden Palmer

141: McKenzie Bell

149: Jon Millner

157: Peter Pappas

165: Izzak Olejnik

174: Rocky Jordan

184: Will Feldkamp

197: Ethan Laird

285: Taye Ghadiali

I mean its not crazy absurd that laird wins 197....

Elevator College Starter

Elevator

Posted
Posted

Glory 

Vito

Cornell(a)

Yianni

Artalona

Monday

Foca

Brooks

Cardenas

Slavikouski

 

Without Brooks, looks like the First Team Ivy lineup!   NCAA conspiracy at 184 to avoid Ivy sweep of NCAA's?

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