The World Famous ILLINI B1G Tournament Preview (Vol. 1)

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

For the complete preview, including where I make fun of your favorite wrestler or team, here's a link to The ILLINI Wrestling Blog and Forum and Beyond. 

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133. LUCAS BYRD (#6, 23-3, 8-0)

There are really only three questions involved in Lucas Byrd’s tournament, from least important to most important: Will he be the second or third seed? Will he get revenge against Jesse Mendez? Will we finally get to see Byrd versus RBY? The answers to those questions will be yes, yes and hell yes.

The world demands Byrd versus RBY.

With the way the tournament brackets go, a second seed would get a first-round bye. Then, the winner between the 7th and 10th seeds. That would be Rutger's Joe Heilmann or MSU's Rayvon Foley given the seeds below. ILLINOIS fans would like to get a nice bonus win in the first round for the team standings, but saving Lucas’ energy for the later rounds is more important.

The #3 seed would face King Sandoval of Maryland in the first round. 

As for getting the #2 seed, Mendez did have a win over the ILLINI during an early season tournament, but Byrd is 8-0 in conference while the Buckeye is 7-1. Moreover, the man in the Orange and Blue is a two-time All American. The ILLINI was ranked right behind Mendez in the previous Coach’s poll (#8, #9), and it was Jesse Mendez who has lost since then. Finally, in overall record, both have the same number of losses (3), but Byrd has nine more wins.

There were eleven B1G wrestlers in the last Coach’s poll. Unfortunately, it is likely that a few of them have fallen off simply because the competition in conference is incredible.

As an example, Michigan State's Rayvon Foley is an outstanding wrestler, but he is only 2-6 in conference duals. If he was just .500 in conference (4-4), his winning percentage against Division One wrestlers would be over .700 at 13-5.

[NOTE: Foley still probably gets an allocation spot for the conference because of his Coach's poll (#16) and RPI (#28) positions, although going 1-4 in his last five might jeopardize that.]

SEEDS

1. RBY (PSU) (13-0; 6-0)
2. LUCAS BYRD (ILLINI) (22-3; 8-0)
3. Jesse Mendez (OSU) (13-3; 7-1)
4. Chris Cannon (NW) (15-6; 6-2)
5. Brody Teske (Iowa) (6-2; 5-1)
6. Dylan Ragusin (Michigan) (13-6; 4-3)
7. Joe Heilmann (Rutgers) (18-6; 5-3)
8. Aaron Nagao (Minnesota) (14-3; 3-1)
9. Henry Porter (Indiana) (13-6; 4-4)
10. Rayvon Foley (MSU) (11-7; 2-6)
11. Dustin Norris (Purdue) (10-13; 3-5)
12. Taylor Lamont (Wisconsin) (9-12; 1-6)
13. Kyle Burwick (Nebraska) (7-7; 1-6)
14. King Sandoval (Maryland) (0-4; 0-3)

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

By way of explanation for my seedings, you can find these two paragraphs in the linked story:

Quote

Unless otherwise noted, the rankings are from wrestlestat.com. The records are against Division One opponents only. 

For example, many sites will list Indiana's Jacob Moran as having a 21-12 record. In fact, against Division One, his record is 12-12. That's a big difference. Conference dual records include forfeits. The seeds below are heavily weighted in favor of B1G dual records. Benefits of the doubt go to previous All Americans. 

In the 133 seedings in the post above, you can see these precepts put into action. Two-time All American Chris Cannon got the benefit of the doubt over Brody Teske, even though Teske has the slightly better B1G dual record. Rayvon Foley got the same benefit of the doubt over Dustin Norris. Finally, it was interesting to me that Wisconsin won the lottery with Taylor Lamont, moving up a whole seed line from #13 to #12. 

[Gus]

3 hours ago, ILLINIWrestlingBlog said:

By way of explanation for my seedings, you can find these two paragraphs in the linked story:

In the 133 seedings in the post above, you can see these precepts put into action. Two-time All American Chris Cannon got the benefit of the doubt over Brody Teske, even though Teske has the slightly better B1G dual record. Rayvon Foley got the same benefit of the doubt over Dustin Norris. Finally, it was interesting to me that Wisconsin won the lottery with Taylor Lamont, moving up a whole seed line from #13 to #12. 

I would think Mendez is the 2 seed by virtue of the H2H win over Byrd and Raugsin is the 5 seed. Not really sure how Teske, Heilmann, Nagao shake out.

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

17 minutes ago, Gus said:

I would think Mendez is the 2 seed by virtue of the H2H win over Byrd and Raugsin is the 5 seed. Not really sure how Teske, Heilmann, Nagao shake out.

I'd add to what I wrote above that Jesse Mendez has been spanked by five and six points in two of his last four. Lucas Byrd was top five in RPI, while Mendez hadn't wrestled enough for an RPI. Given Byrd's high RPI, he still has 9 more wins and the same number of losses. 

But all that minutiae aside, Byrd gets the #2 seed because he's a two-time AA. The coaches know he gives it up every time it counts.

 

[Gus]

30 minutes ago, ILLINIWrestlingBlog said:

I'd add to what I wrote above that Jesse Mendez has been spanked by five and six points in two of his last four. Lucas Byrd was top five in RPI, while Mendez hadn't wrestled enough for an RPI. Given Byrd's high RPI, he still has 9 more wins and the same number of losses. 

But all that minutiae aside, Byrd gets the #2 seed because he's a two-time AA. The coaches know he gives it up every time it counts.

 

FWIW Flo's projections have it

1- RBY

2- Mendez

3- Byrd

4- Raugusin

5- Cannon

6- Heilmann

7- Teske

8- Nagao

9- Foley

10- LaMont

11- Porter

12- Burwikk 

13 - Norris

14- Sandoval

[MPhillips]

31 minutes ago, ILLINIWrestlingBlog said:

Byrd gets the #2 seed because he's a two-time AA.

No. 

[ionel]

51 minutes ago, ILLINIWrestlingBlog said:

I'd add to what I wrote above that Jesse Mendez has been spanked by five and six points in two of his last four. Lucas Byrd was top five in RPI, while Mendez hadn't wrestled enough for an RPI. Given Byrd's high RPI, he still has 9 more wins and the same number of losses. 

But all that minutiae aside, Byrd gets the #2 seed because he's a two-time AA. The coaches know he gives it up every time it counts.

 

Surprised and disappointed you don't have a picture of Mikey Carr dissecting the bracket.  

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

26 minutes ago, Gus said:

FWIW Flo's projections have it

1- RBY

2- Mendez

3- Byrd

4- Raugusin

5- Cannon

6- Heilmann

7- Teske

8- Nagao

9- Foley

10- LaMont

11- Porter

12- Burwikk 

13 - Norris

14- Sandoval

I took your quote of Flo's seeds and added the wrestler's actual B1G dual record:

 

1- RBY 6-0

2- Mendez 7-1

3- Byrd 8-0

4- Raugusin 4-3

5- Cannon 6-2

6- Heilmann 5-3

7- Teske 5-1

8- Nagao 3-1

9- Foley 2-6

10- LaMont 1-6

11- Porter 4-4

12- Burwikk 1-6

13 - Norris 3-5

14- Sandoval 0-3

They got RBY and Sandoval right. The rest of it is a peanut butter and snot sandwich. 

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

Since everybody loved that first set of seeds, I decided to post another with two questions: How does Silas Allred win all those matches when he is obviously the worst wrestler in all of them? Also, wtf you do with Brawlnagel, Warner and Caffey? 

1. Max Dean (PSU) (17-2, 8-0)
2. Silas Allred (Nebraska) (20-5, 7-1)
3. ZAC BRAUNAGEL (ILLINI) (17-5, 6-2)
4. Jacob Warner (Iowa) (13-4, 3-3)
5. Cam Caffey (MSU) (13-3, 6-2)
6. Braxton Amos (Wisconsin) (16-5, 5-3)
7. Gavin Hoffman (OSU) (13-5, 4-1)
8. Jaxon Smith (Maryland) (15-5, 2-0)
9. Michial Foy (Minnesota) (13-8, 4-4)
10. Nick Willham (Indiana) (12-7, 3-2)
11. Billy Janzer (Rutgers) (5-10, 3-5)
12. Andrew Davison (NW) (16-11, 2-6)
13. Brendan Yatooma (Michigan) (4-12, 1-6)
14. Hayden Filipovich (Purdue) (5-19, 0-7)

 

[Royalfan]

The easy answer is you are wrong about him being the worst in all of them.  

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

PROP BET CONTEST

Your good friends at the ILLINI Wrestling Blog and Forum and Beyond are sponsoring a contest in conjunction with the B1G wrestling tournament. The Winner gets two IWB&F&B t-shirts. Second place will receive one t-shirt. Here are the rules: 

 

• Pick "YES" or "NO" for each of the prop bets listed.
• Pick the order of the final team standings for the tournament (tie breaker). 
• The person with the most correct prop bet picks is the winner. Second place goes to the person with the second most correct prop bet picks. 
• The tie breaker is the final team standings for the tournament. Ultimate tie breaker is the closest placement of Rutgers in the final team standings. 

 

 

These are the Prop Bets:

 

1. Spencer Lee will get a first-period pinfall in his first match at the 2023 B1G tournament (Y/N)
2. A team point will be deducted from Iowa's score during the 2023 B1G tournament (Y/N)
3. During the first commercial break after the beginning of the finals broadcast, there will be a commercial selling cars or trucks. (Y/N)
4. Carter Starocci will not give up a point in his first two matches during the 2023 B1G tournament (Y/N)
5. Nebraska will have three or more finalists at the 2023 B1G tournament (Y/N)
6. ILLINOIS will have a finalist at the 2023 B1G tournament (Y/N)
7. Maryland will have two or more semi-finalists at the 2023 B1G tournament (Y/N)
8. During broadcast of the finals, the cameras will catch a nervous coach with his finger in his nose (must be visually confirmed/actual nasal cavity penetration) (Y/N)
9. Taylor Lamont will wrestle and beat Kyle Burwick during the 2023 B1G tournament (Y/N)
10. The last match of the 2023 B1G tournament will involve Spencer Lee (Y/N)
11. The last match of the 2023 B1G tournament will involve Yianni Diakomihalis (Y/N)
12. At least two champions of the 2023 B1G tournament will do backflips or somersaults of some kind (Y/N)
13. The final team standings at the 2023 B1G tournament are as follows: [write names of teams]

 

 

ABOUT THE PRIZES

The ILLINI Wrestling Blog and Forum and Beyond t-shirts are made of 100% fabric and come complete with two or more armholes and a neckhole. They will be delivered to you free of charge by people who make a living delivering such things. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Can I just pick one of them? If so, I will pick no on Yianni making a B1G final.

[MPhillips]

I'd like to risk it all on, no Yianni in a B1G final.

[nhs67]

Thank you for the time and effort you put in to this @ILLINIWrestlingBlog.

I could throw out criticisms here and there, however I will refrain and express my gratitude towards the content.  It is quite refreshing.

I will throw out one insight, though:  They have never ignored the prevailing wisdom of head to head matches from out of conference dual matches.  I am referencing the Mendez/Byrd(133) and Paddy G/Gilcher(157) 'seeding' projections.  I honestly wish they would seed based off team dual meet results, though.

Edited February 24, 2023 by nhs67

[ionel]

I'm putting all my money on a combo prop bet:

A team point will be deducted from Iowa's score during the 2023 B1G tournament before Spencer Lee  gets a first-period pin or fall in his first match at the 2023 B1G tournament (Y/N)

I could use a new t-shirt.
 

[Offthemat]

36 minutes ago, ionel said:

I'm putting all my money on a combo prop bet:

A team point will be deducted from Iowa's score during the 2023 B1G tournament before Spencer Lee  gets a first-period pin or fall in his first match at the 2023 B1G tournament (Y/N)

I could use a new t-shirt.
 

Pin or fall?

[ionel]

1 minute ago, Offthemat said:

Pin or fall?

Yes

[Offthemat]

4 minutes ago, ionel said:

Yes

So either way, you win

[ionel]

4 minutes ago, Offthemat said:

So either way, you win

Yes because there is no chance of a "pinfall," the B10 tournament is in the real world not in Wkn's fantasy world.  

[Offthemat]

3 minutes ago, ionel said:

Yes because there is no chance of a "pinfall," the B10 tournament is in the real world not in Wkn's fantasy world.  

Pin or fall implies a differentiation.  Pinfall implies ‘spenders and a belt.  

[ionel]

9 minutes ago, Offthemat said:

Pin or fall implies a differentiation.  Pinfall implies ‘spenders and a belt.  

Believe Wkn would say:  Pinfall implies majesty spenders and a belt.

[Offthemat]

Well that’s just ridiculous. 

[Mr. PeanutButter]

1. Yes

2. No

3. Why tf not

4. No

5. No

6. Yes

7. No

8. No

9. Yes

10. No

11. Lol. No

12. No

 

Team standings:

PSU, Iowa, Nebraska, OSUe

[ionel]

10 minutes ago, Offthemat said:

Well that’s just ridiculous. 

maybe it  was majesty splendors   ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[TylerDurden]

On 2/23/2023 at 9:53 AM, ILLINIWrestlingBlog said:

I'd add to what I wrote above that Jesse Mendez has been spanked by five and six points in two of his last four. Lucas Byrd was top five in RPI, while Mendez hadn't wrestled enough for an RPI. Given Byrd's high RPI, he still has 9 more wins and the same number of losses. 

But all that minutiae aside, Byrd gets the #2 seed because he's a two-time AA. The coaches know he gives it up every time it counts.

 

Losing to Vito and RBY isn't exactly going to shake things up because 1.) RBY is the top seed, clearly, and 2.) Vito isn't in the conference. 

Mendez has earned the No. 2 seed at the B1G Tournament. The good news for Byrd is that he'll have a chance to wrestle in the same tournament on the same side of the bracket. Hopefully he won't be devastated because of his seeding and wrestles to the best of his ability. 

 

Side note: Does Illinois care about its wrestling team? I wanted to check Byrd's results and the stats link on the Illini website has 21-22 final stats. That's horrible for a B1G school.