Who wins 149 next year?

[Hillbilly Jim]

Wow.  Addition of guys like Vega, Henson coming back, Mendoza, Echemendia, Larkin, etc. have quickly turned this into a much deeper group this season….

Edited June 9 by Hillbilly Jim

[creek chub]

What a stacked weight with 3 natty title holders!!

Somewhat of a homer pick but I’ll go Henson.

It’ll be interesting to see if Vega can be as dominant up a weight. There will be strategy to beat him. He rarely shoots so look for more SV matches next season. 
 

We should see a regular season match between Henson and Vega. I think there’s another dual but not sure. 
 

Valencia is a stud and wrestles a style similar to Henson. 
 

Depending on seeding I’d prefer a Henson vs Valencia finals but that may not happen since they are both in the ACC.

SVN is a potential champ. He’s awesome but I think Henson, Vega and Valencia are still developing and the clear favorites 

 

[TheJimReaper]

46 minutes ago, creek chub said:

What a stacked weight with 3 natty title holders!!

Somewhat of a homer pick but I’ll go Henson.

It’ll be interesting to see if Vega can be as dominant up a weight. There will be strategy to beat him. He rarely shoots so look for more SV matches next season. 
 

We should see a regular season match between Henson and Vega. I think there’s another dual but not sure. 
 

Valencia is a stud and wrestles a style similar to Henson. 
 

Depending on seeding I’d prefer a Henson vs Valencia finals but that may not happen since they are both in the ACC.

SVN is a potential champ. He’s awesome but I think Henson, Vega and Valencia are still developing and the clear favorites 

 

Henson’s not a bad pick at all but I wonder if the weight cut was affecting Sergio’s shooting late in the season?  There’s a marked difference between early and late season in his offense. 

[nhs67]

4 minutes ago, TheJimReaper said:

Henson’s not a bad pick at all but I wonder if the weight cut was affecting Sergio’s shooting late in the season?  There’s a marked difference between early and late season in his offense. 

I don't think there is/was.  You can't quantify it because late season is the two toughest tournaments.  He had one bonus point win in the first half of the season against Top 30 opponents (wrestlestat) as well as the second half.  Both were against Hardy, which was a DEC victory at NCAAs.

He just had twice as many Top 30 (again, wrestlestat) in the second half.

[creek chub]

1 hour ago, TheJimReaper said:

Henson’s not a bad pick at all but I wonder if the weight cut was affecting Sergio’s shooting late in the season?  There’s a marked difference between early and late season in his offense. 

That’s a good question but I honestly don’t know too much about him other than catching highlights and the natty tournament. To me his style is boring but wildly successful. Not trying to hate on him at all but I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a Mehki Lewis type career. Meaning, relying on reattacks during the freshman year and winning a natty championship but after that high level dudes had a plan that mitigated the defensive style and forced him to open up his offense or get hit for stalling. 
 

Vega doesn’t look very big but body mass is a strange thing. He had a great gas tank from what I seen at 141 but didn’t seem to overpower guys and relied on sitting the corner a lot and using his length. Not sure he has the upper body horsepower at 149 to have the success he did at 141 but he’s a natty champ for a reason and will definitely be in the conversation for potential titles 

[TheJimReaper]

1 hour ago, nhs67 said:

I don't think there is/was.  You can't quantify it because late season is the two toughest tournaments.  He had one bonus point win in the first half of the season against Top 30 opponents (wrestlestat) as well as the second half.  Both were against Hardy, which was a DEC victory at NCAAs.

He just had twice as many Top 30 (again, wrestlestat) in the second half.

I mean he was definitely more aggressive earlier in the season. He won his first match by tech fall against Consiglio from Stanford who was a national qualifier. Even in his early National duals matches he took more shots more the most part. 

[boconnell]

2 hours ago, creek chub said:

That’s a good question but I honestly don’t know too much about him other than catching highlights and the natty tournament. To me his style is boring but wildly successful. Not trying to hate on him at all but I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a Mehki Lewis type career. Meaning, relying on reattacks during the freshman year and winning a natty championship but after that high level dudes had a plan that mitigated the defensive style and forced him to open up his offense or get hit for stalling. 
 

Vega doesn’t look very big but body mass is a strange thing. He had a great gas tank from what I seen at 141 but didn’t seem to overpower guys and relied on sitting the corner a lot and using his length. Not sure he has the upper body horsepower at 149 to have the success he did at 141 but he’s a natty champ for a reason and will definitely be in the conversation for potential titles 

Mendez was as high level as they come and had a definite plan. 

I'm not sure how you force Vega to open up while also getting him hit for stalling.  If you pressure him enough to get him hit for stalling, he doesn't have to open up and he can just counter (like the 1st match against Ech).  Or if you wait and try to make him open up, he isn't getting hit for stalling (Mendez or Ech the 2nd time).  It's especially tough to make him open up since he's fantastic on the mat and nobody rode him.  Maybe that changes with longer bodies at 149, but I don't buy that he is going to somehow get figured out.  Unless you're predicting he'll suffer major injury like Lewis did and won't ever be healthy after his title.  

[creek chub]

2 hours ago, boconnell said:

Mendez was as high level as they come and had a definite plan. 

I'm not sure how you force Vega to open up while also getting him hit for stalling.  If you pressure him enough to get him hit for stalling, he doesn't have to open up and he can just counter (like the 1st match against Ech).  Or if you wait and try to make him open up, he isn't getting hit for stalling (Mendez or Ech the 2nd time).  It's especially tough to make him open up since he's fantastic on the mat and nobody rode him.  Maybe that changes with longer bodies at 149, but I don't buy that he is going to somehow get figured out.  Unless you're predicting he'll suffer major injury like Lewis did and won't ever be healthy after his title.  

If you hand fight him and get him backing up early and often without having to take a full committed shot, eventually the refs have to ding him for stalling. Heavy snaps and head control is another option. Shooting on him is almost a guaranteed 3 or more for Vega. The only way I’d recommend shooting on him is a quick shot like a Hi-C but immediately lifting him off the mat. If he sprawls, he wins the sequence 

[Simpleman424]

2 hours ago, boconnell said:

Mendez was as high level as they come and had a definite plan. 

I'm not sure how you force Vega to open up while also getting him hit for stalling.  If you pressure him enough to get him hit for stalling, he doesn't have to open up and he can just counter (like the 1st match against Ech).  Or if you wait and try to make him open up, he isn't getting hit for stalling (Mendez or Ech the 2nd time).  It's especially tough to make him open up since he's fantastic on the mat and nobody rode him.  Maybe that changes with longer bodies at 149, but I don't buy that he is going to somehow get figured out.  Unless you're predicting he'll suffer major injury like Lewis did and won't ever be healthy after his title.  

I think it definitely changes with the body types at 149. He’ll bulk up too and everything but that gross plan he had against Mendez will only get him so far. Got him a championship…can’t take that away but even Mendez isn’t some monster guy cutting and powering through. He was strong for the weight but he’s had faults. These bigger guys will be able to muscle through more of that against a smaller Vega.

[boconnell]

3 hours ago, Simpleman424 said:

I think it definitely changes with the body types at 149. He’ll bulk up too and everything but that gross plan he had against Mendez will only get him so far. Got him a championship…can’t take that away but even Mendez isn’t some monster guy cutting and powering through. He was strong for the weight but he’s had faults. These bigger guys will be able to muscle through more of that against a smaller Vega.

Gross plan against Mendez?  He was the only one to take a shot before OT.  Mendez was the one who took no risks and did nothing in that match.  I get why.  The first attempt he made he got immediately countered.  But there was nothing gross about Vega's plan in that match.  

And the idea that 149s will muscle through him is an interesting one to see this coming year.  

[boconnell]

3 hours ago, creek chub said:

If you hand fight him and get him backing up early and often without having to take a full committed shot, eventually the refs have to ding him for stalling. Heavy snaps and head control is another option. Shooting on him is almost a guaranteed 3 or more for Vega. The only way I’d recommend shooting on him is a quick shot like a Hi-C but immediately lifting him off the mat. If he sprawls, he wins the sequence 

Do you think nobody at 141 tried to handfight him and take no shots?  Or do you think the guys at 149 will just be better at it?

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

13 hours ago, creek chub said:

If you hand fight him and get him backing up early and often without having to take a full committed shot, eventually the refs have to ding him for stalling. Heavy snaps and head control is another option. Shooting on him is almost a guaranteed 3 or more for Vega. The only way I’d recommend shooting on him is a quick shot like a Hi-C but immediately lifting him off the mat. If he sprawls, he wins the sequence 

I wouldn't count on this!

[Simpleman424]

12 hours ago, boconnell said:

Gross plan against Mendez?  He was the only one to take a shot before OT.  Mendez was the one who took no risks and did nothing in that match.  I get why.  The first attempt he made he got immediately countered.  But there was nothing gross about Vega's plan in that match.  

And the idea that 149s will muscle through him is an interesting one to see this coming year.  

My perception of the match could have some natural built in biases from birth but just speaking the style in which that match was wrestled…I don’t like it. Not that it matters and don’t get me wrong, love Jesse man but if he loses that’s fine…just heartbreaking to see that type of match be the one he ends his career on. Jesse is winning that matchup far more than not.

12 hours ago, boconnell said:

Do you think nobody at 141 tried to handfight him and take no shots?  Or do you think the guys at 149 will just be better at it?

I think there’s a noticeable bump in how strong the dudes are at 149 vise 141 while maintaining nearly the same level of athletic ability. Maybe he’ll have an amazing off season in the strength and conditioning program there and this is all a moot point…149 is shaping up to be pretty good this year 

[boconnell]

1 hour ago, Simpleman424 said:

My perception of the match could have some natural built in biases from birth but just speaking the style in which that match was wrestled…I don’t like it. Not that it matters and don’t get me wrong, love Jesse man but if he loses that’s fine…just heartbreaking to see that type of match be the one he ends his career on. Jesse is winning that matchup far more than not.

I think there’s a noticeable bump in how strong the dudes are at 149 vise 141 while maintaining nearly the same level of athletic ability. Maybe he’ll have an amazing off season in the strength and conditioning program there and this is all a moot point…149 is shaping up to be pretty good this year 

I don't think strength will be a big issue.  I bet Echemendia is one of the strongest guys at 149 this year.  

I think length will be the bigger issue.  I don't think Vega will get hand fought and backed up, I just think he won't get to his counter stuff sitting the corner and cradling guys quite as often.  If he's the same guy as a year ago, I don't think he goes undefeated.  It will be interesting to see where he grows in his 2nd year.  I agree 149 will be very interesting.  I'm especially interested to see him wrestle Valencia.  It seems like he has the explosiveness to finish clean.  That seems far more important than strength in scoring on Vega.

[Yugdab]

On 6/9/2026 at 5:52 AM, MoveCountermove said:

I agree, I like seeing the parity and competitiveness spread across several conferences, despite being a Michigan fan

Yes I would love to see some of these recruits and top talent that are clogged up at Penn ST or OK ST or were ever just spread out many more great matchups then 

[Simpleman424]

1 hour ago, boconnell said:

I don't think strength will be a big issue.  I bet Echemendia is one of the strongest guys at 149 this year.  

I think length will be the bigger issue.  I don't think Vega will get hand fought and backed up, I just think he won't get to his counter stuff sitting the corner and cradling guys quite as often.  If he's the same guy as a year ago, I don't think he goes undefeated.  It will be interesting to see where he grows in his 2nd year.  I agree 149 will be very interesting.  I'm especially interested to see him wrestle Valencia.  It seems like he has the explosiveness to finish clean.  That seems far more important than strength in scoring on Vega.

Echemendia has that old man strength for sure. 
 

If anyone can adjust his style it is Taylor…and he very well may go undefeated in that conference. Might be a couple matches to gauge were he’s at and if he gets through those it’s just waiting until conference and NCAA Championships.

[boconnell]

2 hours ago, Simpleman424 said:

Echemendia has that old man strength for sure. 
 

If anyone can adjust his style it is Taylor…and he very well may go undefeated in that conference. Might be a couple matches to gauge were he’s at and if he gets through those it’s just waiting until conference and NCAA Championships.

He won't see everyone in the Big 12.  The ACC will be the toughest at 149 next year, but the Big 12 should be tougher than the Big 10 and the others and should have some tests for him.  

But OSU had duals with Stanford and VTech so he should have one of the hardest schedules again. Just like last year. 

Edited June 12 by boconnell

[Tyler Perry]

On 6/11/2026 at 3:25 PM, boconnell said:

Mendez was as high level as they come and had a definite plan. 

I'm not sure how you force Vega to open up while also getting him hit for stalling.  If you pressure him enough to get him hit for stalling, he doesn't have to open up and he can just counter (like the 1st match against Ech).  Or if you wait and try to make him open up, he isn't getting hit for stalling (Mendez or Ech the 2nd time).  It's especially tough to make him open up since he's fantastic on the mat and nobody rode him.  Maybe that changes with longer bodies at 149, but I don't buy that he is going to somehow get figured out.  Unless you're predicting he'll suffer major injury like Lewis did and won't ever be healthy after his title.  

I’d love to see him and Ridge Lovett hit some top bottom goes. Would be really interested to see how that plays out.

[creek chub]

On 6/11/2026 at 10:03 PM, boconnell said:

Do you think nobody at 141 tried to handfight him and take no shots?  Or do you think the guys at 149 will just be better at it?

The top tier guys at 149 should be able to take more ground by hand fighting and controlling center more than most of the 141 guys. He’s a natty title contender but it’s highly unlikely that he’ll go undefeated again without giving up a takedown all season. 

[MoveCountermove]

26 minutes ago, creek chub said:

highly unlikely that he’ll go undefeated again without giving up a takedown all season. 

Lol I would hope that’s highly unlikely

[MoveCountermove]

A lot of people seem to be discounting (cautiously, even) Vega’s potential to add to his bag, add strength, etc. in year 2. Feels like it’s the perfect time of maturity to jump a weight and hang more meat for someone his shape and age. Obviously it’s a different test, but I’m not ready to suggest he’s going to all of a sudden struggle to wrestle the best at his weight because he’s now spent 6 months or so adding 8 pounds of mass. Until he shows signs of struggles with some of this stuff, I’m going to have a hard time believing too much of it. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen of course, but I’m excited to see the bump and how he handles it, along with some hopefully big matches with some of the aforementioned names. Eager to see how Vega/Taylor approaches continuing to improve on an otherwise “perfect” season.

[boconnell]

3 hours ago, creek chub said:

The top tier guys at 149 should be able to take more ground by hand fighting and controlling center more than most of the 141 guys. He’s a natty title contender but it’s highly unlikely that he’ll go undefeated again without giving up a takedown all season. 

I agree that this would be a problem if Vega kept weighing in at 141 and stayed the same wrestler as last year.  There is no reason to think a bigger Vega will be unable to hand fight with bigger men.  I think if the true freshman 141 Vega could hand fight with Ech and Mendez, then the year 2 Vega weighed in at 149 will hand fight just fine at 149.  

I think the relative length is the issue with going up in weight.  You absolutely get stronger when you go up a weight class, but you don't get longer.  Can he get to a cradle when a longer 149 shoots on that leg?  

Edited June 14 by boconnell

[MPhillips]

42 minutes ago, boconnell said:

I think if the true freshman 141 Vega could hand fight with Ech and Mendez, then the year 2 Vega weighed in at 149 will hand fight just fine at 149.  

I find it hard not to believe the same...

[ionel]

5 hours ago, creek chub said:

The top tier guys at 149 should be able to take more ground by hand fighting and controlling center more than most of the 141 guys. He’s a natty title contender but it’s highly unlikely that he’ll go undefeated again without giving up a takedown all season. 

By pushing and taking ground might one be making it easier for him to grab an ankle and scramble?  I hear he likes ankle scrambles. 

When you say "natty title" are you talk'n bout the daddy natty?   

 

[ionel]

1 hour ago, MPhillips said:

I find it hard not to believe ...