That seems pretty pessimistic to me. There are 6 "locks" to make the semifinals: Bartlett, Haines, MM, Starocci, Brooks and Kerkvliet. Davis is #1 seed but we all know 125 is nuts this year. Still, I think he's got a high chance to AA. 133 has Nagao, I have little doubt he finishes top 6. Kasak has wrestled very tough this year, I think he's got about 50/50 chance of AA (probably better than 50/50), and I think Truax will make the semifinals and thus AA. Plus PSU always amps it up at NCAAs.
I think PSU has a very good chance to have 10 AAs. I'd say 50% chance or better. I also think they'll win at least 3 individual titles (174, 197, HWT), and probably another.