I'm a huge Penn State fan but I'm realizing Iowa is capable of winning the NCAA team title this year IF they start Arnold at 174 and Ferrari at 184.
Here are the reasons why:
1. Lilledahl has not been as great as advertised and has shown a glaring weakness on bottom. He was cradled up and pinned by McCrone who was ranked 21st at the time and is not a AA caliber wrestler. Further Lilledahl is not bonusing at the rate you might suspect. I think LL still manages to AA, but I project him at 5-8 rather than 1-4.
2. Davis is hurt and is as likely to AA (5-8) as he is to go 2-2 BBQ again this year. At 133 his strength advantage is gone and he has shown no improvement in scrambling ability (see his match versus Bouzakis). Ayala is looking like a sure-fire finalist with lots of bonus in the early rounds of NCAAs.
3. Kasak wrestled again but is still recovering from his concussion/head injury - this is a bit of wildcard. Further, Teemer looked very good in beating Fish last night. I could see Teemer beating a less than 100% Kasak at Big 10s.
4. Caliendo is looking super dominant against anyone not named Mesenbrink. He just majored Cam Amine last night, which is impressive. Even if Mesenbrink ultimately beats Caliendo in the finals Caliendo can bonus just as much as Mesenbrink in all the other matches.
5. Obviously Arnold at 174 suits him better bodytype wise and moves him from a low AA contender at 184 to a high AA contender at 174. I could see Arnold in the finals at 174.
6. Ferrari showed last night in beating #3 Plott that he can win a title THIS YEAR at 184. Maybe bottom is still a weakness but his neutral offense and defense is as good as anyone at 184.
7. Buchanan looks amazing and will win a title this year --- most year he would be a Hodge contender. I see him taking out Barr at B10s again and beating Ferrari the elder at NCAAs.
8. Kerk was MIA and is possibly hurt. Further, Pindrickson looks huge and dominant. He utterly mauled Keuter last night. Steveson obviously wins B10s and gets the 1, so I think Kerk ends up meeting Pindrickson in the semis and given Kerk is injured Pindrickson takes him out and meets Gable in the finals.
This Iowa lineup can beat Penn State THIS YEAR!
125 Cruz (R12)
133 Ayala (1st or 2nd)
141 Schriever (2-2)
149 Parco (1st to 4th)
157 Teemer (1st or 2nd)
165 Caliendo (2nd)
174 Arnold (1st to 4th)
184 Ferrari (1st to 4th)
197 Buchanan (1st)
HWT Keuter (5th-8th)