Wrestleknownothing

125: Charlie Farmer (25) 133: Sean Spidle (23) 141: Shannon Hanna (17) 149: Teague Travis (33) 157: Logan Rozynski (21) 165: Enrique Munguia (22) 174: Jared Simma (19) 184: Ryder Rogotzke (26) 197: Camden McDanel (20) 285: Lance Runyon (18)

They give you 15 minutes to edit on this site. Not much.

A couple of your name/seed combinations are off. I want to make sure you want the name listed rather than the seed listed. For example, Julian Farber is the 18 seed at 133. The 20 seed is Blake Boarman. I assume you want Farber. And Ethan Fernandez is the 18 seed at 149. The 19 seed is Andrew Clark. I assume you want Ethan Fernandez. Let me know if my assumptions are wrong.

For comparison. Our PSU numbers are nearly identical when I use field derived expectations. But our Iowa probabilities are pretty different: I think this means your model is predicting that PSU will perform about to the average for wrestlers with those seeds (which is below seed to be clear), and that Iowa will outperform the average for wrestlers with those seeds (which does not necessarily mean they will beat their seeds). This is the opposite of recent history for both those teams.

I have nothing nice to say about the Green Bay Packers. Sorry @peanut, I just can't do it.

This is shaping up nicely. We are over 50 entries already versus 39 last year. I will post some summary data either late tomorrow or early Thursday. Keep those entries coming.

Welcome back. Not late at all. I haven't even finished my entry.

You speak as if eligibility rules are enforced as written. What a quaint notion.

Are we ignoring that Trump owns Truth Social, not Twitter?

LIU

Trump owns 59% of Truth Social's parent company.

Hutton won 3 of 4 in the brief post-war 4 year era. Back then if it was tied the ref would decide. He won one that way and lost one that way. Both were 1-1.

No one knows for sure which one was elevated. They did not release the totals that year. "Last season’s winner Spencer Lee of Iowa and Gable Steveson of Minnesota wound up in a virtual tie, with Lee winning the Fan Vote (25,712 to Steveson’s 5,202 votes), but multiple members of the formal Hodge Trophy Voting Committee voting for co-winners with both Steveson and Lee having such similar Hodge Trophy voting criteria stats."

Nebraska looks off.

The simulations produce nearly identical results to the expansion.

Because we all like to score at home, here are the probabilities summed at the team level, sorted by expected finalists:

thank you

A-FREAKIN-MEN

I have been swamped with stuff the last two days so haven't gotten into the detailed explanations as I much as I want to, but just want to say I love the stuff you are doing. It will be fun to see how this early iteration works this year.

I like it

Do you know who won the D2 title in 1986, when Haselrig was third, and whether they wrestled in the D1 tournament?

Link?

Yes, for independent observations, like 10 individual weights, to get the expected total you just add the individual probabilities. If you wanted to figure out the odds of all of them happening, you would multiple them all. If you want to get the probability of each event from 0 wins to 10 wins you need to do an algebraic expansion of an equation that takes the form (Prob of event one +(1-Prob of event one)x)(prob of event two+(1-Prob of event two)... The resulting factors in the expansion are the individual event odds.