Wrestleknownothing

Apparently he transferred to Northern Iowa? Or I accidentally pasted in the UNI table. How is this?

Probability of AA by weight along with the expected number of AAs

Probability of AA by weight along with the expected number of AAs

Probability of AA by weight along with the expected number of AAs

Probability of AA by weight along with the expected number of AAs

Probability of AA by weight along with the expected number of AAs

OSUw breakdown:

You are correct, I should have said HR feels injury stole it in 2022. It was the same core of guys from 2020 to 2022.

You are welcome

Since I assume you can't prove its not, then, sure, yeah, Oklahoma OK.

Agreed. It is a sport where injury is a near guarantee, so we should not be surprised when there are injuries. The difference is probably that none of those injuries cost PSU a team title. For Iowa in 2021 I think it is less about the fact of individual injury and more about them all happening together such that it cost Iowa a team title. Or at least that is the way some of the HR community see it. First, COVID stole their back-to-back in 2020, then injury stole it in 2021.

Last year: Eierman - Probably has as much to do with his style as anything. If you are always giving up the leg, there is a greater chance the leg gets hurt? Cassioppi - finished 7th after projecting in the 2nd - 5th range.

Objection, Your Honor. Asked and answered (on the other board, but still)

The thing that always annoys me about that pic, is that they stole the idea from my wife and I.

ISU by the numbers @Crablegs two notes: I do not have the 11/15 intermat rankings and I updated the probabilities in early November so you see a slight change in 197 that has nothing to do with a rank change.

Good question. I calculated the probability any one seed ends as an AA based on results from 2010 - 2022. This is what that looks like: If you just count the wrestlers ranked 8 or higher, it ignores the fact, for example, that of the last 120 wrestlers seeded 8, only 60 finished in the top 8. Even a 1 seed is not a guarantee to finish as an AA, historically. So, I sum the probabilities associated with each team's current rankings (thereby equating ranking to seed). In that way you get expected AA. So a change of 0.1 can be thought of as a team increasing the probability that one of their wrestlers will AA by 10%. This is roughly the same as having a wrestler move from a 5 seed to a 4 seed. Thanks for asking @Crablegs, sometimes I rush to the final thought without posting all the ones that came before.

Which teams have made the biggest moves in the first few weeks of the season? Below is the difference between the expected AA's per team based on Intermat's pre-season rankings and the current expectation based on their 11/22 rankings. Iowa State, Michigan and Va Tech are making the biggest moves on the plus side. Meanwhile, Nebraska, Penn, and Ohio State are moving in the wrong direction early in the season.

Have I got good news for you. Based on expected points I have OSU at 25th in both Flo and Intermat rankings.

Careful, if you start using Dan techniques the mods may get confused and do something regrettable. Also, since my response was to a comment about 10 wrestlers, some of whom absolutely did have some of those, it absolutely was meaningful.

One caveat about wrestlestat bonus rate calcs, they do not include MFOR in the numerator, but they do include them in the denominator. They should either be included in both or excluded from both. But in their current form, wrestlestat occassionally understates bonus rate. It was probably most notable last year due to the large number of MFOR and small number of matches.

Your persecution complex is showing.

This train has no brakes. All steam, all the time.

I always go back to a comment RBY made after winning last year. He was talking about what Cael Sanderson said to him right before he went out for his first final. It was something along the lines of, "In ten years no one will remember this." I think it is a masterful way to diffuse the tension and let a wrestler just wrestle.