Wrestleknownothing

16 minutes ago, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

Put another way, if you don't seed the wrestlers based on who you think the best wrestlers are...you could have #1 and #2 wrestle each other in the first round and #3 and #4 wrestle each other the first round and you are guaranteed that 1/2 of the top 4 are eliminated immediately.

Seeds are earned rather than rewarded. In that way they are more ranking than prediction. But rankings contain a degree of subjectivity (whether the Flo rankers want to admit it or not), so it can be hard to differentiate between a ranking and a prediction sometimes. An example, is quality wins. If two undefeated wrestlers do not wrestle the exact same schedule then some subjectivity comes into play to decide who is more deserving of the higher seed based on the quality of their wins. At the margin this is purely subjective and there is an element of a positive feedback loop. If wrestler A beats the #10 ranked wrestler and wrestler B beats the #11 ranked wrestler it is tempting to say wrestler A had a higher quality win, but who is to say that the original ranks were 100% accurate?

44 minutes ago, ionel said:

Is it true the oath also required signing a contact that said fans would solicit at least 5 themat forum buddies to also complain for the next 5 years about how Hall got cheated in seeding meeting and thus denied his easy path to the final?  My understanding that Bob decided to make all continue to honor the contract on the new IM forum,  just one more year of this nonsense. 

There was an NDA involved. I have already said too much.

20 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

So if I heard correctly. None of these all star matches count towards anyone's record??

Officially, no. But all Penn State fans take an oath to the belief that in 2018 Mark Hall lost the #1 seed to Zahid Valencia based on the all-star match.

10 minutes ago, Caveira said:

Thanks.  Did not realize they are essentially gone.   It’s probably good for the sport.  I don’t let my kid cut weight.  

I don't let myself cut weight.

6 minutes ago, 98lberEating2Lunches said:

Apparently they've got some procrustean mofos over there.

They will fit in perfectly when they move to phase 2 of The Pines of Mar Gable, or is it Del Boca Vista?

2 hours ago, npope said:

Hey! Hey! Hey! The topic is "Burwick" - not Iowa, okay? Start another thread.

You make an excellent point.

Kyle Burwick has essentially finished at his seed every year.

Just now, jajensen09 said:

They did this on flo. Ben askren did it, Proved that Iowa underperforms at ncaas. Based on how they are seated for the tournament. They win close matches at home cuz of bs stalling calls

Ben Askren also told you you should invest in crypto. Who you gonna believe?

And now for all teams that have averaged at least 3 NQs per year. Princeton shall lead them all (and we shall all work for them).

Given that PSU has qualified the third highest number of wrestlers over that span, how crazy is that number?

6 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

Based on what??? They die this on flo. Around 60 percent of iowas wrestlers, wrestle below their seed every year

Nope

And in % terms

2 hours ago, jajensen09 said:

When you look at past ncaas iowa over half of the team has wrestled below their seed. Iowa wins alot of close matches at home cuz they beg for stalling. 

Over the last 12 tournaments Nebraska has wrestled at or above their seed 55% of the time (50 of 91) and Iowa has wrestled at or above their seed 56% of the time (63 of 112).

Nebraska's worst years were 2014 (1 of 6) and 2021 (2 of 9). Iowa's worst years were 2015 and 2022 (3 of 7).

If you narrow it down to just the past three tournaments (the seed to 33 era) Nebraska has wrestled at or above their seed 48% of the time (12 of 25) and Iowa has wrestled at or above their seed 48% of the time (14 of 29).

There really is no difference between the two.

Movers and Shakers (based on Intermat).

Top 10 and Bottom 10 ranked by change in expected points from pre-season to now.

• Iowa State is coming on strong. Seven of ten have moved up in the rankings, led by Paniro Johnson.
• This is a bit unfair to Penn as the lion's share of their "lost" points are due to CJ Composto taking a gap year to recover from injury (only Intermat had him in their pre-season rankings)
• Wyoming is hit hard by the Stephen Buchanan transfer decision.
• Ohio State is the opposite of Iowa State with seven of their ten wrestlers dropping in the rankings.

6 minutes ago, Idaho said:

Was Monday in those 157 rankings or was he ranked at 165 at that time? 

He was listed at 165 at the time by all four services. @lu1979 describes it correctly above. All four services moved Monday to 157 for their second set of rankings at which point Intermat and Flo had Monday at #1 (not sure where WIN had him ranked).

52 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

Does signature make it six?

No, mspart is not a word.

1 hour ago, ionel said:

nah ... couldn't even win the Big 10 and even a data wizard like you knows 12 > 10

Hoisted by my own petard

26 minutes ago, ionel said:

True of Ohio State as well. 

Disagree. Ohio State could win the Big 12.

13 minutes ago, Formally140 said:

Im going to make a couple tentative predictions as a non penn state fan. Just based off what Cael has done. 
133 - 1st

141 - will Penn State peak to a 5-8th

149 - I think SVN will be top 3.

165 - I think Facundo is on a more Nick Lee/RBY trajectory with a low 5-8 finish first then top two after this year.

174 - 1st, I want to see him wrestle the senior level more

184 - 1st

197 - 5-8th, I doubt he gets the close or blatant calls two years in a row.

285 - Kerk is winning it

I think they’re going to run away with the title again. 

for Iowa, 

125 - Lee might Semi-Slide based off what I’ve seen

141 - 4-8th

149 - going with heart not head and 7th

157 - they should put Chittum out while they have Lee but I see 7-8th right now at best 

165 - R12-8th

174 - 6-8th

184 - unfortunately R16-R12, rooting for him though

197 - 5th

285 - 2-4th

i think Iowa State might be competing for a team trophy this year or next 

 

I reserve the right to reevaluate and redo my picks in January. 

I am higher on Real Woods. I think he is a 1 -4 guy rather than a 4 -8.

14 minutes ago, Idaho said:

If I remember correctly, Brayton Lee was a pre-season #1 on some rankings. 

You remember correctly. Both WIN and Intermat had him #1 in their pre-season rankings.

35 minutes ago, Dark Energy said:

It is your ‘specialty.’

1 hour ago, jajensen09 said:

I agree. However I believe this team has a higher ceiling 

Let's play that out.

Last year Nebraska beat their average seed by an average of 3.8 spots. Using the Intermat rankings (we owe Willie that much, right?) if they out perform their ranking by the same amount this year that gets them to something like 52 placement and advancement points which would have them battling for the last podium spot. Of course, if they keep improving their ranking/seed prior to the tournament then that best case scenario moves higher too.

18 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

Robb and labs are locks. Hardy getting there. Then you throw in the rest and look out!! Loaded!!

If Nebraska wrestles this tourney like they wrestled the last  NCAA tourney, you will be very happy.

7 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

Doesn't take it to iowa being wayyy overrated like usual

Same data for Nebraska, if you are interested:

3 minutes ago, ionel said:

Those are the teams' rank in you intermat table below.

I do not think that is correct.

Just now, jajensen09 said:

Doesn't take it to iowa being wayyy overrated like usual

If you look at how often Iowa beats their seed then they are slightly underrated on average with some notable exceptions in each direction.

If you look at their average finish to seed (which always skews negative if you are seeded high) then they are slightly overrated, not way overrated:

2 minutes ago, ionel said:

from your posted intermat table:

        1. Nebraska 137.5
        2. NC State 127.5
        3. South Dakota State 123
#7.   4. Michigan 96.5
        5. Northern Iowa 96
#6.   6. Arizona State 89
#5.   7. Cornell 83.5
#4.   8. Ohio State 82.5
        8. Oregon State 82.5
        10. Northwestern 81.5

I am confused. What are the numbers and ranks you typed in?

6 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

Yeah, after this weekend alot has changed. Robb, hardy, labbs should be locks. Liam, Bubba Wilson, Lenny pinto, and alred all have great chances to AA. Eye test

The last column takes into account this past weekend. 

The reality is there is no such thing as a lock. Even a #1 seed is not a guarantee. In the last 12 tournaments (2010 - 2022) only 98.33% of #1 seeds finished in the top 8 (118 of 120). Injuries and upsets happen.