Wrestleknownothing

Sorry, @Jimmy Cinnabon the 5% hits. The 5% always hits with you. And no Gabe Arnold.

Like your PSU duck predictions from last week. Based on nothing and meaningless, but said like you know something. You never tire of the bit do you?

Sanderson is very committed to delegating. It makes it easier to coach for a long time and identify successors.

That is the hallway outside the wrestling room. They prefer a very informal setting.

@PortaJohn, @Jimmy Cinnabon can you refresh my memory on the terms of the bet?

The only thing that bothers me is that last bit. Looking over to someone off the mat to confirm a pinfall when you are in a far better position is foolish and it forces you to look away from what you are officiating which is also foolish. But I am good with the paddle system.

Rumor <> prediction.

I interpret that as people thinking it won't be a shut out, combined with Davis "winning" last week, combined with Ayala having be #1 recently. So Ayala is a likely choice.

With the pace of predictions slacking, I thought I would start assembling the summary ahead of tomorrow's dual. Everything Old Is New Again As in years past the consensus on Go Iowa Awesome is the most Iowa optimistic. Of course, optimistic is a very relative term in this context. They have the average score at 9 - 26, Bad Guys. And no surprise Happy Valley Insider is the most Lion loving. With an average score of 5 - 31, Good Guys, they are looking to set a bunch of records. Biggest Iowa dual lose in the Brandsx2 era, biggest lose at Carver Hawkeye, and biggest lose in the 10 wrestler era. The collective wisdom of the Intermat crowd is the cooler head that will surely prevail. By our estimation, only the Brands era record will be broken. That currently stands at -15 and we see it as an 8 - 27 final score. Details Only @Pish and @fishbane are calling for the shut out, though fishbane also likes the fireworks. Joining him on #teamfireworks is @nhs67, as they both called for parallel team point deductions. From their lips to the scorers ears. No one anywhere is calling for an Iowa win, not even on GIA. Unprecedented. The closest is our own @Mr. PeanutButter (who also admits it is plumb loco) and @crzyctldy who is not crazy about cats enough to call for the Hawks to win, but likes the Hoosier-ian comeback to beat all Hoosier-ian comebacks. I think he just likes to see it burn. @1032004 is closest to consensus. He just needs to throw a team point deduction in there for Terry and he is a sure thing. Uneasy Lies The Head? There are two to rule them all apparently. Only Aaron Brooks and Greg Kerkvliet garnered unanimous support. That's right. Someone picked Carter Starocci to lose. Or did they? @flyingcement picked him to du..., du..., du..., miss the flight to Iowa City as he apparently did not make the travel team. Maybe, yes. Maybe, no. But one thing the cement shoes definitely got wrong is picking against Karl Shindeldecker. When The Decker wrestles, The Decker wins. By decking his pinfelled opponents. On the flip side "Team Point" deduction got more votes than poor Patrick Kennedy and Brody Teske, combined. On the Iowa side, "Love The" Drake Ayala is the prohibitive favorite to bring home the team points. Is it a Carvering if everyone is calling for it? A Carver by any other name would smell as sweet. Most everyone thinks Real Woods counting lightbulbs courtesy of Sergio Lemley was a fluke last week. Woods out-voted Beau Bartlett 35-14. Beau is no Bo. Most Dominant No surprise here.

Oh, I understand them all too well. When Vegas quotes you 12/1 they are not saying it is an outcome that will occur once every 12 times, but they sure are hoping you are dumb enough to think that. The real odds are significantly longer than anything you will get quoted. But you keep betting those odds. I am sure you will bankrupt that casino any day now.

Not exactly. If he has an equal chance against any of 19 other guys and is a big favorite against the other 13 and he is the 13 seed (his current rank) then he hits only the other guys with an equal chance. So his odds of winning are still 0.5^5 = 3.1% and his odds of making the final are still 0.5^4 = 6.2%. Since I only have his current rank, yes, I am using that. If his rank/seed improves it stands to reason that so will his probability. At a minimum, in your scenario he gets one near sure thing win. But even if history repeats itself, higher seeds do have better results. I will do a busted seed calculation when this is all over to see how 2024 125 compares to 174 in 2016 which is the most busted bracket I have found.

Sooooooo dumb. You asked me what the chances were. I told you. You did not ask for a betting line. You want a betting line, dumb dumb, fine. I will give you 1/10. For every $10 you bet I will pay you $1 if you win. If serves me right for answering your question when I knew it would result in a very stupid exchange because you just do not get it. You do this every year.

nope. I'm gonna need the name of the assistant.

Oh, I get it. I do a lot of public speaking. I have had people in the audience take pics so I can see what it looks like. You learn to be still.

I was going to post exactly that. He caresses the coffee cup without ever drinking, and he moves that mic every two seconds.

Dude, that is because Vegas under pays true odds. You know, because of that profit thing. By the way, 12/1 is still half of what you think the odds are. At 15% you would be happy to accept 13/2 odds, foolish to accept them, but happy.

Hmmm. He is ranked 13th with 5 loses on the season. He is 3-4 in his last seven, so it is not like he lost early and has momentum now. If he is at 15% then the 12 guys above him, with fewer loses by the way and 5 victories to no loses against him, also have to be at 15% or more. So among those 13 they have at least 195% chance of making the final?

I just dropped in on FRL for the first time in a while this week. What the hell is going on with that new set for FRL? They look so uncomfortable sitting in those chairs with the man spreads. Pyle fidgets with his mic so constantly because he is so uncomfortable that it makes it uncomfortable for me to watch.

Not saying that at all, and I am a lot confused how you came to that conclusion from what I said. I gave you two scenarios. The normal scenario, 1.1%, and the extreme scenario where everyone is equal, 3.1% (which, by the way, should have been 6.2% because you said make the finals and 3.1% is for winning the finals). So let's do this the other way around. What do you think Smith's probability is for making the final?

When I look at all of those I am struck by something. Both Flo and Intermat call them rankings, not ratings. Flo is very vocal about the rankings being achievement based. I think Intermat is the same, though nowhere near as annoying about it. If they use the same method they should get the same result. Which they do, for the most part, in the top 8 or 10. But anything below that is a total crap shoot. For example, Norman is either #16 or #29 at 174, and Abas is either #21 or #11 at 149, and Brennan is either #23 or unranked at 174. My conclusion is for all the lip service to rankings, these are only kinda, sorta rankings and kinda, sorta ratings. Really a blend.

OK, play that out. If everyone has an equal chance then that is 0.5^5 or 3.1%. If it is like history, it is 1.1%. So what are you looking for, 2%?

You did. But I was hoping to get a bit more detail.

It's not "history", it is history. Everyone wants to think things are different this time. Vegas makes a living off that belief. Just because there is no clear #1 at 125 does not mean everyone's odds are equal.