Wrestleknownothing

That is very kind of you to say, especially given all you have done to promote college wrestling and preserve its history. Unfortunately, I am traveling for work Thursday and Friday and cannot attend. The good news, though, is I have arranged my schedule to maximize my TV viewing.

As for team balance, yes, I think it will be a historic year. There is just about nothing separating 3-11.

I have PSU at 7.64 AAs. Over simplifying the numbers, you could say that is a 64% chance of 8 and a 36% of 9. But you could as easily spread those probabilities across more possibilities, even from 0 to 10. That assumes wrestling to the average result (which is a little below seed). But as PSU has a history of wrestling to seed, And let's face it, Starocci's probability of AAing from the #9 seed is a tad higher than the normal 9 seed. But maybe Davis' probability should also be below a normal #1 seed. So, I think I talked myself back to 7.64 But if you want to give Starocci the bump, and not discount Davis, then the are highly likely to get 8 with a chance of 9. Next closest is NC State at 5.56 (i,e. 56% chance of 6, 44% chance of 5).

Kind of like holding in football? Its only illegal if you get caught.

You might be focused on Nagao's right arm. Check out his left.

Nah, I think it is safe to say he caught everyone by surprise.

I was thinking about how unlikely it is to have two true freshman as the 1 and 2 seed at a weight (125). Then I thought maybe it is not that big a deal if they were already a big deal, so I look at where they were on Willie's Big (Deal) Board. Turns out they came from well outside the top 15-20, which is where most champs come from, if I recall correctly. But Cade DeVos takes the cake for the most unlikely given where he was ranked coming out of high school. At least he has had some time to marinate in the SDSU room.

I like that one

that last stat is my favorite

Is Starocci's Cat in there, too?

All is forgiven, my son. I make no promises about forgotten.

Yeah, it seems like there may have been some unintended consequences here. By bumping conference tournament placement up to 15% this year it can be the most important factor in the matrix in a lot of cases. Head-to-head is often a push when comparing across conferences, so that 25% effectively gets thrown out. Quality wins, if I understand correctly, are often split 15%/5% for a 10% net. That would make a 3rd place finish in a 6 team conference the deciding factor over a 4th place finish in a 14 or 17 team conference.

Dammit, that is soooooo much better.

who needs a Beatles tribute band when you have The Beatles?

The way I think about it is, Starocci is the clear best wrestler in the bracket who also failed to earn the #1 seed. Seed and rank are often not the same concept. Freestyle is the extreme example of this. Sebastian Rivera at Worlds was seeded as high as he was because he optimized the seeding formula, not because he was "at that level". And it paid huge dividends for him at Worlds. Starocci failed to optimize the seeding formula. That does not invalidate him from OW consideration, especially since he is clearly one of the most outstanding wrestlers this year, and in NCAA wrestling history, but for me his seed is not part of the consideration.

Kind of you to say, Tater. But I cannot take all the credit. It was inspired by the debate in another thread about the definition of darkhorse and a related comment from @PortaJohn

While your "if you disagree with me you must be ignorant" argument may be effective with others, it does not move me. How can you raise taxes quickly enough to bring inflation in as quickly as it has come in? In short, you cannot. This is why raising rates, and decreasing the money supply are much more effective for squeezing inflation quickly. This then buys time to work on the fiscal aspects. And the only aspect of fiscal policy I am interested in changing is the spending side, not the taxation side. The reality is that when taxes go up, so does spending. The spending side is the problem. Of course, you can always volunteer to pay more in taxes. I will not object to that.

Inflation is primarily a monetary problem. Deficits are fiscal and have secondary effects. Taxes are also very hard to change while interest rates and money supply are not. And inflation is already a tax of its own. Raising taxes will make the economy worse, not better.

Yeah, third through eleventh is anyone's guess. I don't think I have ever seen anything like that.

I just noticed a problem with a join. It messed up my Iowa and NC State predictions. Iowa drops and NC State soars. Sorry Hawkeye Nation.

Nice. Now we just need those even numbers.

Now you are getting Jimmy

Cody Brewer was the 13 seed. And he dominated his way through the bracket. He should have been seeded much higher, though. Well done.