ionel Posted February 24 Posted February 24 30 minutes ago, Simpleman424 said: I think seeing the conference championships and seeding will make this a very good conversation…someone is going to get a more beneficial path at NCAAs and that will drive a lot of this and someone might get a bad draw. .
Simpleman424 Posted February 24 Posted February 24 1 minute ago, ionel said: and someone might get a bad draw. There ain’t a might about that…someone’s getting completely screwed lol
jmoney Posted February 25 Posted February 25 (edited) 6 hours ago, Simpleman424 said: There ain’t a might about that…someone’s getting completely screwed lol That's why I'm shocked how many ppl think Ayala won't AA. There are so many paths that screw other guys and help him. That, his offensive firepower, and 2 finalists appearances tell me this guy is going to surpass the mistakes of at least one of these freshman. Edited February 25 by jmoney
Psalm 1 guy Posted February 25 Posted February 25 14 hours ago, bnwtwg said: Thoughts @ionel? It's so funny how many times I have seen it spelled that way recently. It must be a keyboard thing.
ScottishSteel Posted February 25 Posted February 25 Just wait to TK Davis shocks the world . . . Irrationally proud former WPIAL wrestler No Scotland, No Party . . . Go Beavs
creek chub Posted February 25 Posted February 25 10 hours ago, jmoney said: That's why I'm shocked how many ppl think Ayala won't AA. There are so many paths that screw other guys and help him. That, his offensive firepower, and 2 finalists appearances tell me this guy is going to surpass the mistakes of at least one of these freshman. I definitely wouldn’t bet against Drake making a deep run on the top side of the bracket. This bracket is gonna be insane! I wouldn’t even bet on any specific person to win either. If they wrestled the tournament 5 times, I say it would be vastly different results each time. It’s great for the sport with this much talent
Pablo Posted February 25 Posted February 25 If anyone is interested, here is an estimate from this week's Pablo. What I did was take the top 16 (in Pablo) and put them into a bracket. I did it two ways - 1) a seeded bracket, and 2) a randomly distributed bracket. I used the probably based on Pablo ratings to calculate (via Markov chain) the probability of winning given the bracket. For the random bracket, the value is the average of 50000 brackets. Pablo currently has Forrest as the clear favorite. Seeded Random 133:Oklahoma State_Jax Forrest 51.4% 48.5% 133:Virginia Tech_Aaron Seidel 28.7% 25.7% 133:Penn State_Marcus Blaze 6.2% 6.3% 133:Ohio State_Ben Davino 4.5% 5.6% 133:Iowa State_Evan Frost 3.8% 4.9% 133:Iowa_Drake Ayala 1.6% 2.1% 133:Arizona State_Kyler Larkin 0.8% 1.2% 133:Gardner-Webb_T.K. Davis 0.6% 1.1% 133:Northern Colorado_Dominick Serrano 0.4% 0.8% 133:West Virginia_Gunner Andrick 0.4% 0.7% 133:Stanford_Tyler Knox 0.4% 0.7% 133:Illinois_Lucas Byrd 0.3% 0.6% 133:Nebraska_Jacob Van Dee 0.3% 0.6% 133:Wisconsin_Zan Fugitt 0.2% 0.4% 133:Pennsylvania_Evan Mougalian 0.2% 0.4% 133:Virginia Tech_Dillon Campbell 0.1% 0.4%
ionel Posted February 25 Posted February 25 9 minutes ago, Gene Mills Fan said: My word what killed the Byrd? Pablo with a shotgun in the meadow. .
Pablo Posted February 25 Posted February 25 14 minutes ago, Gene Mills Fan said: My word what killed the Byrd? Yeah, Pablo is REALLY unimpressed. He needs to do something to make Pablo think he's got it in him. I pointed this out last week. Against Purdue, Byrd beats Boarman 5-4. A week later, Ayala techs him. Pablo sees that and says, Ayala looks a lot better. Things like this add up. Now, maybe Byrd has been taking it easy, and just doing enough to win and that's good enough. But if that is the case, he's going to need to show that is what he is doing.
Gene Mills Fan Posted February 25 Posted February 25 2 minutes ago, Pablo said: Yeah, Pablo is REALLY unimpressed. He needs to do something to make Pablo think he's got it in him. I pointed this out last week. Against Purdue, Byrd beats Boarman 5-4. A week later, Ayala techs him. Pablo sees that and says, Ayala looks a lot better. Things like this add up. Now, maybe Byrd has been taking it easy, and just doing enough to win and that's good enough. But if that is the case, he's going to need to show that is what he is doing. So your seed had him meet Ayala? or that match is all Pablo sees? but the random doesn't his record move him up?
Pablo Posted February 25 Posted February 25 1 hour ago, Gene Mills Fan said: So your seed had him meet Ayala? or that match is all Pablo sees? but the random doesn't his record move him up? Pablo has him ranked 12th right now. In the seeded bracket, he would have been up against #5 (don't remember who that was) In the random bracketing, he could have been all over the place.
Pinnacle Posted February 25 Posted February 25 The 4 Freshmen add up to 95% Byrd gets 4.5% Field 0.5%
jmoney Posted February 25 Posted February 25 3 hours ago, Pablo said: Yeah, Pablo is REALLY unimpressed. He needs to do something to make Pablo think he's got it in him. I pointed this out last week. Against Purdue, Byrd beats Boarman 5-4. A week later, Ayala techs him. Pablo sees that and says, Ayala looks a lot better. Things like this add up. Now, maybe Byrd has been taking it easy, and just doing enough to win and that's good enough. But if that is the case, he's going to need to show that is what he is doing. What about Byrd over Ayala this season 7-2 and last 3 meetings straight? I just watched that Boarman match as it’s being used to slander Byrd into a low tier AA wrestler and Boarman ran and was hit with a stall point by 1:05 of period 2. Pictures for entertainment value. That’s a lion going after his prey and Boarman is running laps around the mat circumference here and wasn’t hit for stalling on this sequence how he should have been.
ionel Posted February 25 Posted February 25 27 minutes ago, jmoney said: Is this ^^^ what they mean by "circling?" .
PencilNeck Posted February 25 Posted February 25 16 minutes ago, jmoney said: That’s a lion going after his prey and Boarman is running laps around the mat circumference here and wasn’t hit for stalling on this sequence how he should have been. I watched this one on BTN. Interesting bout. Purdue was pretty much running the entire time. Nearly was stalled-out (4 of Byrd's 5 points came from stalling calls). The champ had a grin on his face while getting his hand raised. I wonder if he thought winning that way was kind of funny. I'm glad he seems to be having a good time during this victory lap season. Being comfortable in close matches is a not a bad thing. Looking forward to the clashes with these up-and-comers.
BarSeries Posted February 25 Posted February 25 6 minutes ago, PencilNeck said: I'm glad he seems to be having a good time during this victory lap season. Well, Illinois did have the softest schedule of all time. Not sure how good of a time he'll have at NCAAs.
jmoney Posted February 25 Posted February 25 1 hour ago, ionel said: Is this ^^^ what they mean by "circling?" it's time to square off that circle!
Jackson Lininger Northern York, Pennsylvania Class of 2027 Committed to Slippery Rock Projected Weight: 149
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