2025 Nebraska Was NOT The Greatest Overperformance Of All-Time

[Wrestleknownothing]

But who was? And where does that mighty Husker squad stand?

Inquiring minds who want to know the Top 10 Overperformances and Bottom 10 Underperformances in NCAA tournament history can find out at:

https://wrestling.guru/2026/02/05/ncaa-tournament-over-under-performers/

[Gene Mills Fan]

You mean in 2007 the Brands had 7 wrestlers exceed their seed??   

[Wrestleknownothing]

8 minutes ago, Gene Mills Fan said:

You mean in 2007 the Brands had 7 wrestlers exceed their seed??   

I do not. Thanks for catching that. It is fixed now.

[mr.nonothingatall]

This is the type of stats I like to see. Cool read. Thanks!

[Gene Mills Fan]

You mean in 2007 the Brands had 7 wrestlers MEET or exceed their seed?? 

did i do that correctly @Wrestleknownothing 

[Rassling]

9 minutes ago, mr.nonothingatall said:

This is the type of stats I like to see. Cool read. Thanks!

[mr.nonothingatall]

@Rassling

Edited February 5 by mr.nonothingatall

[11986]

the 97 Hawkeyes had 5 national champs. 3 of them did not win the Big Ten tournament that year, placing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th respectively. I don't know the seeds from the Big, but guessing Iowa underperformed there, which may have helped set the table for the overperformance a few weeks later.  

[Wrestleknownothing]

22 minutes ago, Gene Mills Fan said:

You mean in 2007 the Brands had 7 wrestlers MEET or exceed their seed?? 

did i do that correctly @Wrestleknownothing 

I meant in 1997 Gable had the 7. I have fixed the posting now.

[Gene Mills Fan]

Thank you now I realize confirmation bias couldn't let go.

all fired up over Zagreb.

 

Edited February 5 by Gene Mills Fan

[bnwtwg]

While I appreciate your math, I must disagree and the straight math will never align with my statistical opinion which was the focus of your last publication.. The greatest overperformance of all time did occur last year, and to be clear I hate saying it out loud and need a shower because I feel very icky.

Penn State only had two champions yet they had 10 AAs and beat the last two team scoring records, including the prior year when they had 4 champs/ 6 finalists. When Minnesota was the first team to have all 10 wrestlers AA they did win but only scored 98 points.

What PSU did last year was, in my opinion, the greatest overperformance of all time. Four of their seeds produced under seeded expectation, especially both 1 seeds, but that happens every year for every team at every weight as you have previously been so kind to map out.

What was the expected for 2025 PSU based on your inputs? And follow-up, my marketing department ask is how can you manipulate the numbers to confirm my opinion?

Edited February 6 by bnwtwg

[Dogbone]

2 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

While I appreciate your math, I must disagree and the straight math will never align with my statistical opinion which was the focus of your last publication.. The greatest overperformance of all time did occur last year, and to be clear I hate saying it out loud and need a shower because I feel very icky.

Penn State only had two champions yet they had 10 AAs and beat the last two team scoring records, including the prior year when they had 4 champs/ 6 finalists. When Minnesota was the first team to have all 10 wrestlers AA they did win but only scored 98 points. What PSU did last year was, in my opinion, the greatest overperformance of all time. Yes many four of their seeds produced under seeded expectation, especially both 1 seeds, but that happens every year for every team at every weight. 

So my marketing department ask is how can you manipulate the numbers to confirm my opinion?

Why does that make last year's PSU team the best overperformance.  Aren't you just arguing that they were the greatest team ever?  Or are you saying they were not the greatest team but overachieved to have the best tournament? 

You could argue that LL, Kasak and Levi not even making the finals was an underachievement.   

[bnwtwg]

1 minute ago, Dogbone said:

Why does that make last year's PSU team the best overperformance.  Aren't you just arguing that they were the greatest team ever?  Or are you saying they were not the greatest team but overachieved to have the best tournament? 

I am saying both.

2 minutes ago, Dogbone said:

You could argue that LL, Kasak and Levi not even making the finals was an underachievement.   

That was literally one of my discussion points and relates directly to WKN's previous publication regarding average seed performance.

[Dogbone]

1 minute ago, bnwtwg said:

I am saying both.

That was literally one of my discussion points and relates directly to WKN's previous publication regarding average seed performance.

Out of curiosity, why don't you think PSU's team was as good as the results suggested? 

[bnwtwg]

39 minutes ago, Dogbone said:

Out of curiosity, why don't you think PSU's team was as good as the results suggested? 

That doesn't make sense? My opinion is that they overperformed on paper and in the real world, and they couldn't achieve the statistical milestone of the '97 Iowa team because unlike that Hawkeye squad, PSU didn't underperform during the season and at B1Gs and therefore went into nattys with "appropriate" seeds. Going by WKN's Expected Total Points, 2025 PSU should have scored 156.6 points. Unfortunately @Wrestleknownothing enabled Right Click Protection on his wordpress so I can't highlight and copy/paste some key data points and I'm too lazy to type them out. But the gist is that overperforming from 156.6 team points which would win all but two seasons ever (I think? could be wrong) up to an NCAA record is a bigger accomplishment than 97 Iowa's because Iowa should have not put themselves in that NCAA seeding situation to begin with. Breaking the record on top of an expected top-3 performance is a historic performance.

https://wrestling.guru/2026/02/01/expected-points-friend-or-foe/

5 Underperformed to seed, 3 went chalk, 2 overperformed. But then the inverse happened: 6 overperformed to points expectation, and Kerk in all likelihood would have racked up more on the way to third had he not defaulted due to a torn ACL after his semis loss which makes it all the more exemplary. I pulled these stats by individual queries via google search AI overview "How many points did *wrestler's name* score at 2025 NCAA tournament" so hopefully column G Actual Pts is accurate.

Edited February 6 by bnwtwg

[forkemaz]

4 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

That doesn't make sense? My opinion is that they overperformed on paper and in the real world, and they couldn't achieve the statistical milestone of the '97 Iowa team because unlike that Hawkeye squad, PSU didn't underperform during the season and at B1Gs and therefore went into nattys with "appropriate" seeds. Going by WKN's Expected Total Points, 2025 PSU should have scored 156.6 points. Unfortunately @Wrestleknownothing enabled Right Click Protection on his wordpress so I can't highlight and copy/paste some key data points and I'm too lazy to type them out. But the gist is that overperforming from 156.6 team points which would win all but two seasons ever (I think? could be wrong) up to an NCAA record is a bigger accomplishment than 97 Iowa's because Iowa should have not put themselves in that NCAA seeding situation to begin with. Breaking the record on top of an expected top-3 performance is a historic performance.

https://wrestling.guru/2026/02/01/expected-points-friend-or-foe/

5 Underperformed to seed, 3 went chalk, 2 overperformed. But then the inverse happened: 6 overperformed to points expectation, and Kerk in all likelihood would have racked up more on the way to third had he not defaulted due to a torn ACL after his semis loss which makes it all the more exemplary. I pulled these stats by individual queries via google search AI overview "How many points did *wrestler's name* score at 2025 NCAA tournament" so hopefully column G Actual Pts is accurate.

So your argument is its better to under perform at NCAAs than confrence? This is silly. 

[Gene Mills Fan]

4 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

That doesn't make sense? My opinion is that they overperformed on paper and in the real world, and they couldn't achieve the statistical milestone of the '97 Iowa team because unlike that Hawkeye squad, PSU didn't underperform during the season and at B1Gs and therefore went into nattys with "appropriate" seeds. Going by WKN's Expected Total Points, 2025 PSU should have scored 156.6 points. Unfortunately @Wrestleknownothing enabled Right Click Protection on his wordpress so I can't highlight and copy/paste some key data points and I'm too lazy to type them out. But the gist is that overperforming from 156.6 team points which would win all but two seasons ever (I think? could be wrong) up to an NCAA record is a bigger accomplishment than 97 Iowa's because Iowa should have not put themselves in that NCAA seeding situation to begin with. Breaking the record on top of an expected top-3 performance is a historic performance.

https://wrestling.guru/2026/02/01/expected-points-friend-or-foe/

5 Underperformed to seed, 3 went chalk, 2 overperformed. But then the inverse happened: 6 overperformed to points expectation, and Kerk in all likelihood would have racked up more on the way to third had he not defaulted due to a torn ACL after his semis loss which makes it all the more exemplary. I pulled these stats by individual queries via google search AI overview "How many points did *wrestler's name* score at 2025 NCAA tournament" so hopefully column G Actual Pts is accurate.

Its just trivia based on his variables. He's not saying it was the most impressive performance.

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

That doesn't make sense? My opinion is that they overperformed on paper and in the real world, and they couldn't achieve the statistical milestone of the '97 Iowa team because unlike that Hawkeye squad, PSU didn't underperform during the season and at B1Gs and therefore went into nattys with "appropriate" seeds. Going by WKN's Expected Total Points, 2025 PSU should have scored 156.6 points. Unfortunately @Wrestleknownothing enabled Right Click Protection on his wordpress so I can't highlight and copy/paste some key data points and I'm too lazy to type them out. But the gist is that overperforming from 156.6 team points which would win all but two seasons ever (I think? could be wrong) up to an NCAA record is a bigger accomplishment than 97 Iowa's because Iowa should have not put themselves in that NCAA seeding situation to begin with. Breaking the record on top of an expected top-3 performance is a historic performance.

https://wrestling.guru/2026/02/01/expected-points-friend-or-foe/

5 Underperformed to seed, 3 went chalk, 2 overperformed. But then the inverse happened: 6 overperformed to points expectation, and Kerk in all likelihood would have racked up more on the way to third had he not defaulted due to a torn ACL after his semis loss which makes it all the more exemplary. I pulled these stats by individual queries via google search AI overview "How many points did *wrestler's name* score at 2025 NCAA tournament" so hopefully column G Actual Pts is accurate.

I saw your (I think it was you? Oh, and thanks for coming over, reading, and commenting. I really appreciate it.) comment on the article, so I came to take a peek at what you said here. But first a tangent/rant (completely optional, feel free to skip).

Begin Rant.

Oh My God, you are killing me with the AI. It is not completely wrong, just mostly wrong. Six of the ten scores above are incorrect. That said that is at least partly our fault, as the site as currently configured makes it harder than it should be to get that answer. It is not my site so I don't control that, but I will see what is possible.

But, as I am just over there lending a hand, I do not want to overstep my bounds. I don't pay for the site nor do any of the hard work setting it up and maintaining it. I only provide light data support, analytics, puking words onto a page, etc. And I am keenly aware that @cowcards doesn't have any ads over there (i.e. he is paying for this stuff himself). As I am not a big fan of spending other people's money I do not want to make promises someone else has to keep.

End Rant.

I think you make an interesting point and I have some ideas on how to attack it. Stay tuned for a follow up post. Though I will also pop back in to let you know.

[cowcards]

6 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

That doesn't make sense? My opinion is that they overperformed on paper and in the real world, and they couldn't achieve the statistical milestone of the '97 Iowa team because unlike that Hawkeye squad, PSU didn't underperform during the season and at B1Gs and therefore went into nattys with "appropriate" seeds. Going by WKN's Expected Total Points, 2025 PSU should have scored 156.6 points. Unfortunately @Wrestleknownothing enabled Right Click Protection on his wordpress so I can't highlight and copy/paste some key data points and I'm too lazy to type them out. But the gist is that overperforming from 156.6 team points which would win all but two seasons ever (I think? could be wrong) up to an NCAA record is a bigger accomplishment than 97 Iowa's because Iowa should have not put themselves in that NCAA seeding situation to begin with. Breaking the record on top of an expected top-3 performance is a historic performance.

https://wrestling.guru/2026/02/01/expected-points-friend-or-foe/

5 Underperformed to seed, 3 went chalk, 2 overperformed. But then the inverse happened: 6 overperformed to points expectation, and Kerk in all likelihood would have racked up more on the way to third had he not defaulted due to a torn ACL after his semis loss which makes it all the more exemplary. I pulled these stats by individual queries via google search AI overview "How many points did *wrestler's name* score at 2025 NCAA tournament" so hopefully column G Actual Pts is accurate.

I'm the one that has the protection on it. It is over-protected right now, for sure. I need to find the right balance from people being able to take all the info and people being able to use it more easily.

[bnwtwg]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Oh My God, you are killing me with the AI.

My CIO says the same thing at every 1x1 when I have a garbage product he keeps making me build