Hot take: Flo rankings are better than intermat

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

15 minutes ago, Pinnacle said:

 

Exactly, there are levels to this. Why we shouldn't consider every freestyle results, just those few that make it very apparent that a certain wrestler is at a certain level. The Kyle Snyder, J'Den Cox, Mehki Lewis, Jax Forest, Bo Bassett, Marcus Blaze and PJ Duke types are pretty easy to identify yet no so numerous that it should complicate things.  

J'Den Cox?  Mekhi Lewis?  

Cox did not compete internationally before college.  His freshman year he took 3rd at University Nationals and DNP at WTT.

Lewis was 22-2 his redshirt year before winning Junior Worlds.

We have a lot of guys who do well at various age group championships.  They don't skyrocket to the top of the ratings.

Surprised Richie Lewis wasn't mentioned.

Edited December 11, 2025 by Interviewed_at_Weehawken

[Jon_Kozak]

27 minutes ago, Pinnacle said:

 

Exactly, there are levels to this. Why we shouldn't consider every freestyle results, just those few that make it very apparent that a certain wrestler is at a certain level. The Kyle Snyder, J'Den Cox, Mehki Lewis, Jax Forest, Bo Bassett, Marcus Blaze and PJ Duke types are pretty easy to identify yet no so numerous that it should complicate things.  

The examples we referenced today on FRL were from last summer at the U23 Nationals - you could make the argument that's a pretty high level.

I agree that exceptional cases call for exceptions, which is partially why I chose to move up PJ Duke this week. I also moved up Taye Ghadiali last year when he was about to tech Feldman at the CKLV but Feldman injury defaulted - no one seemed to notice that one lol

Anyway, I know I'm late to the party in this thread, but I really appreciate the dialogue. I'd also like to add that I'm always open to be corrected and put my email on the rankings so that anyone can reach out to me if I miss something or if they have a question about the rankings. 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

15 minutes ago, Jon_Kozak said:

The examples we referenced today on FRL were from last summer at the U23 Nationals - you could make the argument that's a pretty high level.

I agree that exceptional cases call for exceptions, which is partially why I chose to move up PJ Duke this week. I also moved up Taye Ghadiali last year when he was about to tech Feldman at the CKLV but Feldman injury defaulted - no one seemed to notice that one lol

Anyway, I know I'm late to the party in this thread, but I really appreciate the dialogue. I'd also like to add that I'm always open to be corrected and put my email on the rankings so that anyone can reach out to me if I miss something or if they have a question about the rankings. 

Bob Dole

[Dark Energy]

56 minutes ago, Coastal said:

Including all freestyle may be a bit time consuming but there's a difference between a random tournament and the Sr. US Open.  Making the Sr team while still in high school should put a wrestler in the top 5 automatically their freshman year.

The same way that winning some local Christmas tournament isn't the same as winning Super 32 or Ironman when evaluating a recruit's 

So only apply to true freshman with limited college matches. M  Ignore the dozens or hundreds of head to head matches in freestyle amongst college wrestlers. 

I get the stance, but I can see why people that do rankings on a regular basis would not want to do this.  The line becomes arbitrary.  My kid beat someone at U20s though!  At Farrell!  At Junior trials!  Meanwhile, major ‘upset’ between college kids at a big freestyle tourney is ignored.  Yuck.

[Pinnacle]

26 minutes ago, Jon_Kozak said:

The examples we referenced today on FRL were from last summer at the U23 Nationals - you could make the argument that's a pretty high level.

I agree that exceptional cases call for exceptions, which is partially why I chose to move up PJ Duke this week. I also moved up Taye Ghadiali last year when he was about to tech Feldman at the CKLV but Feldman injury defaulted - no one seemed to notice that one lol

Anyway, I know I'm late to the party in this thread, but I really appreciate the dialogue. I'd also like to add that I'm always open to be corrected and put my email on the rankings so that anyone can reach out to me if I miss something or if they have a question about the rankings. 

++ Jon for stepping up and participating in the discussion.

[Rassling2]

both mean oogotz so early in the season. 

[1032004]

41 minutes ago, Jon_Kozak said:

The examples we referenced today on FRL were from last summer at the U23 Nationals - you could make the argument that's a pretty high level.

I agree that exceptional cases call for exceptions, which is partially why I chose to move up PJ Duke this week. I also moved up Taye Ghadiali last year when he was about to tech Feldman at the CKLV but Feldman injury defaulted - no one seemed to notice that one lol

Anyway, I know I'm late to the party in this thread, but I really appreciate the dialogue. I'd also like to add that I'm always open to be corrected and put my email on the rankings so that anyone can reach out to me if I miss something or if they have a question about the rankings. 

We appreciate you!  I think the injury default conversation is pretty much a separate conversation.    I agree with you that there’s gotta be a line somewhere where an injury default should count as a win for ranking.  I’m not sure where it is exactly, but I think being majored in the third period is past it.

[Jon_Kozak]

8 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

We appreciate you!  I think the injury default conversation is pretty much a separate conversation.    I agree with you that there’s gotta be a line somewhere where an injury default should count as a win for ranking.  I’m not sure where it is exactly, but I think being majored in the third period is past it.

Yeah I don't think we'll ever count freestyle results in our college ranking. What's nice is most of the high level high school guys now have college results so guys like Bassett, Melvin Miller, and Jax will all start their college careers ranked pretty high.

[Gene Mills Fan]

38 minutes ago, Rassling2 said:

both mean oogotz so early in the season. 

oogatz is hollywood/broken italian  for cucuzza!  phonetically (cau cootza) as my people would say.  A big squash!  metaphorically:  big but not worth much   

[maligned]

@Jon_Kozak Thanks for engaging. I'm a big international guy and love so much of your work. 

The one I'd mentioned earlier that feels confusing is Carroll. I was curious where you and Earl would slot him. Here's my thought:

Imagine the rankings exactly as they are without Carroll. Now bring Carroll into the mix minus the Ghadiali win. He most logically fits between Mullen and Lanosga because of his win over Lanosga and losses to Mullen and #1 and #2. So how could he continue to be in exactly that same place when he in fact has a major over Ghadiali?

For me it's very simple: Ignore the Mullen loss and the Ghadiali win that make things confusing. First consider that he's beaten everyone below Mullen and lost to everyone above Ghadiali. Now re-introduce only those two data points. He performs once at some level above a #6 level and once at some level below a #12 level. His general performance level is therefore roughly a #9 performance level--halfway between the two. If a strictly win/loss-based Vegas algorithm knew only the results of those 2 matches for him, he would be #9 or #10 because it doesn't feel the pressure to "slot" next to a particular memorable opponent. (Between the two is where Earl decided to put Carroll too, in this case, by the way.)

Thoughts?

 

[Jon_Kozak]

3 minutes ago, maligned said:

@Jon_Kozak Thanks for engaging. I'm a big international guy and love so much of your work. 

The one I'd mentioned earlier that feels confusing is Carroll. I was curious where you and Earl would slot him. Here's my thought:

Imagine the rankings exactly as they are without Carroll. Now bring Carroll into the mix minus the Ghadiali win. He most logically fits between Mullen and Lanosga because of his win over Lanosga and losses to Mullen and #1 and #2. So how could he continue to be in exactly that same place when he in fact has a major over Ghadiali?

For me it's very simple: Ignore the Mullen loss and the Ghadiali win that make things confusing. First consider that he's beaten everyone below Mullen and lost to everyone above Ghadiali. Now re-introduce only those two data points. He performs once at some level above a #6 level and once at some level below a #12 level. His general performance level is therefore roughly a #9 performance level--halfway between the two. If a strictly win/loss-based Vegas algorithm knew only the results of those 2 matches for him, he would be #9 or #10 because it doesn't feel the pressure to "slot" next to a particular memorable opponent. (Between the two is where Earl decided to put Carroll too, in this case, by the way.)

Thoughts?

 

Carroll's tough because he wasn't great last year. So if you move him above Mullen, you're putting a lot of weight on one tournament (one win) for a guy who had inconsistent results last season. Last year Carroll split with Wyatt Voelker (Voelker won the last one) and lost to Tayshaun Glover. Voelker btw is ranked 11th (two spots ahead of Carroll). 

If Carroll had a completely blank slate heading into the year, then sure, your suggestion makes a lot of sense. 

I guess the other part is we don't really know what a win over Taye Ghadiali means right now. Ghadiali's best win of the year is over #20 David Szuba. Ghadiali gets the benefit of the doubt because he's been historically great but hasn't done much recently. If Ghadiali had several top 5 wins this year, then maybe we move Carroll up more.

[1032004]

1 hour ago, Jon_Kozak said:

Yeah I don't think we'll ever count freestyle results in our college ranking. What's nice is most of the high level high school guys now have college results so guys like Bassett, Melvin Miller, and Jax will all start their college careers ranked pretty high.

I could see some people pushing back on Jax since I believe Stanich is the only AA he’s beaten, it happened while Stanich was redshirting, and was 2 years ago (will be 3 if he doesn’t come on the scene until next year).

Not sure if already talked about on FRL,  but I think explaining where he’d be ranked right now might be an interesting topic…

[Truzzcat]

28 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I could see some people pushing back on Jax since I believe Stanich is the only AA he’s beaten, it happened while Stanich was redshirting, and was 2 years ago (will be 3 if he doesn’t come on the scene until next year).

Not sure if already talked about on FRL,  but I think explaining where he’d be ranked right now might be an interesting topic…

I believe Stanich was actually ranked 1 at the time but had not burned all his dates, he eventually ended up going and took 5th. Really hard to take much into account with that one though because all of his results are at 125 and 141 so not sure what kind of familiar opponents you would have to base things off of. Same case with Jett, good wins at 125 but nothing of note at 133. I think his only other wins of note are Ungar and Mccrone both of whom have always been 125's.

[Rassling2]

2 hours ago, Gene Mills Fan said:

oogatz is hollywood/broken italian  for cucuzza!  phonetically (cau cootza) as my people would say.  A big squash!  metaphorically:  big but not worth much   

[1032004]

31 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

I believe Stanich was actually ranked 1 at the time but had not burned all his dates, he eventually ended up going and took 5th. Really hard to take much into account with that one though because all of his results are at 125 and 141 so not sure what kind of familiar opponents you would have to base things off of. Same case with Jett, good wins at 125 but nothing of note at 133. I think his only other wins of note are Ungar and Mccrone both of whom have always been 125's.

Whoops, you are correct.  That was the year Stanich took 5th.  I don’t see much problem with ranking Jax at 133 based off of wins at 125 though, it’s the same thing when ranking guys moving up in weight.

[maligned]

1 hour ago, Jon_Kozak said:

Carroll's tough because he wasn't great last year. So if you move him above Mullen, you're putting a lot of weight on one tournament (one win) for a guy who had inconsistent results last season. Last year Carroll split with Wyatt Voelker (Voelker won the last one) and lost to Tayshaun Glover. Voelker btw is ranked 11th (two spots ahead of Carroll). 

If Carroll had a completely blank slate heading into the year, then sure, your suggestion makes a lot of sense. 

I guess the other part is we don't really know what a win over Taye Ghadiali means right now. Ghadiali's best win of the year is over #20 David Szuba. Ghadiali gets the benefit of the doubt because he's been historically great but hasn't done much recently. If Ghadiali had several top 5 wins this year, then maybe we move Carroll up more.

Fair enough. I guess the combination of thinking Ghadiali has looked like a top 5 to 10 guy in his performances, combined with Carroll's back-to-back-to-back tech of #28, major of #5, and win over #11 made me raise my eyebrows and take it at face value. Anyway, time will tell--and I hear you saying "time will tell" is the approach you wanted to take.

[Caveira]

On 12/11/2025 at 5:36 AM, Pinnacle said:

 

So there is a social media freakout? Not aware of that 

Flo's rankings seem a combination of things, some of which is personal judgement, hence the wrestler with the 4-2 record being 4th at 125 and ahead of 17 wrestlers with a better record.

This is a social media platform.  

[Dark Energy]

Well, Willie is freaking out.  On flamethrower mode regarding CP and Flo rankings.  

Suppose it can be a tactic to spit fire at the folks that get the most eyeballs and clicks …. Might draw some eyeballs and clicks your way. Create / makeup controversy and grab attention.

 

 

[MPhillips]

49 minutes ago, Dark Energy said:

a tactic

The game is made to be played...