End of Season Pablo Rankings

[Pablo]

8 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I'm not trying to be critical, I was just pointing out.  At a glance it appears that many wrestlers are missing matches against D1 competition from each weight.

I hear you on not having an easy, or convenient way to pull results/data.

Fortunately for Robinson, I have the NCAA results, which are weighted higher (more recent) and those losses in Cliff Keene are missing.  

[nhs67]

5 minutes ago, Pablo said:

Fortunately for Robinson, I have the NCAA results, which are weighted higher (more recent) and those losses in Cliff Keene are missing.  

Two of his losses were late February (Ventresca in the dual and at ACCs).

Thank you for putting this all together.  It is easier for someone to nitpick than to put the work in, and I hope you understand there are many more eyes that enjoy this sort of thing than it might seem.

[ionel]

4 minutes ago, Pablo said:

Of course that is silly.  You can't just compare records, and Pablo is not merely a comparison of records.  Quality of the competition and the domination of your opponents also matters.  Based on that one outcome, what we would expect is that if they were to wrestle again, that Hendrickson has about a 65% chance of winning.  Certainly an advantage, but it's not huge.  Moreover, that is only one match, and Pablo is taking the other outcomes into account.

Look through the rankings, there are tons of instances where wrestlers with way worse w/l records are ranked higher.  At 285, Hayden Flipovich is 7-16 and ranked 10 spots higher than Connor Barket from Duke, who is 21-10.  It's common.

Pablo looks at the full body of work (that it has, at least).    

 

Hendrickson was more dominate and they both wrestled pretty much they same top 5 or 10 guys.  So where does Steveson make up the disadvantage? 

[Spladle]

Garrett Grice seems high but I do strongly believe he will be a pleasant surprise if he cracks the lineup at 133. 

[Pablo]

4 minutes ago, ionel said:

Hendrickson was more dominate and they both wrestled pretty much they same top 5 or 10 guys.  So where does Steveson make up the disadvantage? 

I'm not going to go through match by match, but I will note that Pablo had Steveson rated ahead of Hendrickson before the NCAAs, so that was already established (although I will note, Pablo gave Hendrickson a much better chance of winning than anyone else was giving him).  His win in the championship caught him up significantly, but not enough to overcome the difference.

 

[ionel]

9 minutes ago, Pablo said:

I'm not going to go through match by match, but I will note that Pablo had Steveson rated ahead of Hendrickson before the NCAAs, so that was already established (although I will note, Pablo gave Hendrickson a much better chance of winning than anyone else was giving him).  His win in the championship caught him up significantly, but not enough to overcome the difference.

 

No one asked for match by match, we know he wouldnt be ahead on match by match, just what is a single criteria that put him ahead.  For instance did Pablo consider Olympic gold? 

Edited Thursday at 06:51 PM by ionel

[CHROMEBIRD]

285 looks fine. I like Pindrickson, but if he and Gable were to wrestle another folkstyle match I would probably put my money on Steveson. 

Part of the hangup with rankings is that for some they are a recognition for athletic performance throughout some period of time; other rankings recognize performance and are meant to be predictive of future performance; others are something else. Happens all the time, even in other sports. Look at all the fussing over the CFP rankings, for example. 

[Pablo]

2 hours ago, ionel said:

No one asked for match by match, we know he wouldnt be ahead on match by match, just what is a single criteria that put him ahead.

You have to look at it match by match to compare them, because that is how Pablo determines their ratings.  Pablo ratings are based on who you wrestle, who you beat, who you lose to, and by how much.  It's a match-by-match assessment.  It's all about the specifics.  Records matter, to the extent that beating an opponent is a good outcome and is a better predictor of success than losing is, but who you beat also matters.

So if you ask, "Why is X ranked higher than Y" you have to look at the match-by-match outcomes to see where they got their value.

 

"  For instance did Pablo consider Olympic gold? "

I don't have the ability to compare freestyle and folkstyle outcomes, and I wouldn't even try.