Updated Team Race Rankings Based on Individual Ranks - The Remain Calm Iowa edition

[Wrestleknownothing]

There is a thread on HR about Iowa slipping to number 3 in WIN Magazine's tournament power index behind Missouri.

I still have Iowa #2 across the board using Intermat, Flo and Wrestlestat individual rankings combined with expected placement and advancement points (no bonus points in my totals). And in one case (the only case that matters? Intermat) they even increased their lead over Missouri by 0.8 points.

Some of the responses on HR focus on the "fact" that Missouri always underperforms their seed, so it is OK.

I am not so sure that is the hook Hawkeye fans want to hang their hat on, though.

Yes, Missouri tends to underperform when their seeds are higher, but then who doesn't? You can also argue they were over-seeded in 2018 and 2021 as a result of being in a "weaker" conference, but that is cherry picking or else how do you explain 2017 when they had their highest average finish while only missing their seed by a half spot?

Regardless, this year their seeds are a result of this year's results, not some perceived historical bias. And the expected points methodology accounts for under-performance on average at higher seeds and over-performance at lower seeds.

But the real point here is nothing has changed for Iowa. There is a gap between them and PSU in one direction with a smaller gap between them and Missouri in the other direction.

 

[mspart]

Quite the research you have done.    Isn't it amazing that PSU did so well as soon as Cael took over?   It didn't take long to become dominant.  

Very interesting.

mspart

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

7 minutes ago, mspart said:

Quite the research you have done.    Isn't it amazing that PSU did so well as soon as Cael took over?   It didn't take long to become dominant.  

Very interesting.

mspart

 

Big props to @BerniePragle who helped me with the data to figure out expected points, average seed vs placement, etc.

[ionel]

29 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

 

But the real point here is nothing has changed for Iowa. There is a gap between them and PSU in one direction with a smaller gap between them and Missouri in the other direction.

 

With all those missing wrestlers and Lee giving up 8 pt moves left and right, they are still at #2 and #3?  Maybe them algorithms are out dated?

Given all the interest on another thread, curious what your data shows if the bow & arrow is deemed illegal before the tournament?  

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 minutes ago, ionel said:

With all those missing wrestlers and Lee giving up 8 pt moves left and right, they are still at #2 and #3?  Maybe them algorithms are out dated?

Given all the interest on another thread, curious what your data shows if the bow & arrow is deemed illegal before the tournament?  

If I have failed to see far it is because I stood on the shoulders of ants. 

I kid. The ranking services are doing the lord's work.

As for Bow and Arrows, my data shows an unequivocal support for them. If anything the data suggests wrestlers should not be allowed to win if they do not perform one.

[Pinnacle]

Iowa's risk of late is Real Woods? He counts as a #1 rank for Iowa? Lotta points to lose if he can't go. 

[ionel]

On 1/10/2023 at 12:34 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

If I have failed to see far it is because I stood on the shoulders of ants. 

I kid. The ranking services are doing the lord's work.

As for Bow and Arrows, my data shows an unequivocal support for them. If anything the data suggests wrestlers should not be allowed to win if they do not perform one.

We know it won't end this way but it would still be interesting to know what your numbers would say if you plugged in only the wrestlers who actually wrestled their last team event. 

Please don't say no to the know.  

[Wrestleknownothing]

17 hours ago, ionel said:

We know it won't end this way but it would still be interesting to know what your numbers would say if you plugged in only the wrestlers who actually wrestled their last team event. 

Please don't say no to the know.  

If you provide me the list of wrestlers to exclude for the ~79 teams, I can do that. The list seems like a lot of work, and a lot of assumptions need to be made.

[ionel]

7 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

If you provide me the list of wrestlers to exclude for the ~79 teams, I can do that. The list seems like a lot of work, and a lot of assumptions need to be made.

I'll get on that, give me 15 minutes and I'll edit it into this post.  

[Wrestleknownothing]

 

<toe tapping> <checking watch>

[gimpeltf]

2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

 

<toe tapping> <checking watch>

C'mon! He didn't say which 15 minutes.