AFTER WATCHING Penn State last night, has any team ever had 8 finalist's (in the NCAA) before in the modern era?

[Paul158]

It is a stretch but if they stay healthy, they have a chance of having 8 finalists. They have a very good chance of having 5 Champions. They looked very solid last night.

[PortaJohn]

2 minutes ago, Paul158 said:

It is a stretch but if they stay healthy, they have a chance of having 8 finalists. They have a very good chance of having 5 Champions. They looked very solid last night.

Hard to imagine 5 happening this year.   

[Hammerlock3]

If they put 8 in the finals its the death knell for college wrestling.

[1032004]

I don’t see 8 finalists happening.

 

Mesenbrink & Starocci damn near 100% chance but gets a little dicey after that.

I’d go something like:

Kerk 65%

Haines 60%

Kasak 55%

Van Ness 50%

Barr 35%

Bartlett 30%

Lilledahl 25%

Davis 15%
 

I wouldn’t be super surprised to see 5 champs but I’d be very surprised to see 8 in the finals.  I also wouldn’t be surprised to see 9 in the semis though and we know PSU usually does well in the semis…

Edited 5 hours ago by 1032004

[Wrestleknownothing]

The most in the 10 weight era is 6.

Oklahoma State did it in 1962 and 1964.

Iowa did it in 1986, 1991, and 1997.

Penn State did it last year.

[1032004]

I’m kinda thinking they get the 10 AA’s though 

[jackwebster]

25 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I’m kinda thinking they get the 10 AA’s though 

And I can't see an end. Hammerlock might be overstating it, but we are watching a different sort of NCAA tournament today. Cael's dominance is different than Gable's. 

[666]

7 minutes ago, jackwebster said:

And I can't see an end. Hammerlock might be overstating it, but we are watching a different sort of NCAA tournament today. Cael's dominance is different than Gable's. 

I don't remember Gable's teams ever being as dominant across all the weight classes like PSU today. Plus, and this may annoy some people, I think today's PSU teams would utterly dominate the best Gable teams if we could get a time machine and bring those teams together. 

[1032004]

21 minutes ago, 666 said:

I don't remember Gable's teams ever being as dominant across all the weight classes like PSU today. Plus, and this may annoy some people, I think today's PSU teams would utterly dominate the best Gable teams if we could get a time machine and bring those teams together. 

Was before my time but looking at Iowa’s historic results they seem comparable and probably even better at least during a few stretches so for that reason I wouldn’t say PSU’s dominance is “the death of college wrestling.”  For example in the 80’s they had a streak of 7 years with at least 8 AA’s, including 6 straight years of having 5+ finalists:

‘79-‘80: 8 AA’s (1-1-2-3-3-4-7-8)

’80-‘81: 9 AA’s (1-1-2-2-2-5-7-7-7)

’81-‘82: 8 AA’s (1-1-1-2-2-3-6-7)

’82-‘83: 9 AA’s (1-1-1-1-2-3-4-5-5)

’83-‘84: 8 AA’s (1-2-2-2-2-4-5-6)

’84-‘85: 9 AA’s (1-1-2-2-2-4-5-5-5)

’85-‘86: 8 AA’s (1-1-1-1-1-2-4-5) 

 

https://hawkeyesports.com/news/2004/06/16/all-americans

Edited 4 hours ago by 1032004

[jackwebster]

2 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

 they seem comparable and probably even better at least during a few stretches

But other than recency bias, why does it feel different? It does feel different, no?

[1032004]

7 minutes ago, jackwebster said:

But other than recency bias, why does it feel different? It does feel different, no?

I was not alive during most of the stretch I cited, so can’t comment on how it felt

Edited 3 hours ago by 1032004

[666]

1 minute ago, 1032004 said:

Was before my time but looking at Iowa’s historic results they seem comparable and probably even better at least during a few stretches so for that reason I wouldn’t say PSU’s dominance is “the death of college wrestling”).  For example in the 80’s they had a streak of 7 years with at least 8 AA’s, including 6 straight years of having 5+ finalists:

‘79-‘80: 8 AA’s (1-1-2-3-3-4-7-8)

’80-‘81: 9 AA’s (1-1-2-2-2-5-7-7-7)

’81-‘82: 8 AA’s (1-1-1-2-2-3-6-7)

’82-‘83: 9 AA’s (1-1-1-1-2-3-4-5-5)

’83-‘84: 8 AA’s (1-2-2-2-2-4-5-6)

’84-‘85: 9 AA’s (1-1-2-2-2-4-5-5-5)

’85-‘86: 8 AA’s (1-1-1-1-1-2-4-5) 

Well, we can parse this out logically. I'm not going to go through all 7 of those, but let's take a look at the 79-80 Hawkeyes and today's Nittany Lions.  I'm just going to go straight across on these guys even though the weights don't match perfectly (no 118 pound or unlimited HWT classes today!). 

 left column Iowa, right PSU, finish at NCAAs last tournament for PSU

118  Dan Glenn - 2nd   no modern weight equiv

126 Kerber DNP            125 Luke Lilledahl TBD

134 Lewis      1st            133 Davis R12

142 Zalesky 4th            141 Bartlett 3rd

150 Mueller 3rd             149 Van Ness  3rd

158 Stevenson 7th        157 Kasak 3rd

167 Anderson DNP        165 Mesenbrink 2nd

177 Banach 1st               174 Haines 1st   

190 no qualifier              184 Starocci 1st   197 Barr TBD

HWT Phinney 3rd          HWT Kerkvliet 1st 

Alright, let's score this like a dual. 

118 Glenn forfeit PSU    6-0

125/126 Lilledahl MD Kerber 6-4

133/134 Lewis MD Davis 10-4

141/142 Bartlett dec Zalesky 10-7

149/150 Van Ness dec Mueller 10-10

157-158 Kasak dec Stevenson 10-13

165/167 Mesenbrink TF Anderson 10-18

174/177 Banach dec Haines 13-18

184/190/197 PSU TF "no qualifier" 13-23

HWT Kerkvliet MD Phinney 13-27 

So I have this year's PSU squad beating the 79-80 Hawkeyes 27-13, and that's probably being a bit too generous to the Hawkeyes since I gifted them 6 points at 118 pounds. 

 

 

[jackwebster]

Maybe bc Iowa dropped some duals that I remember? 

1980 OSU won

1981 Iowa State won 25 -14

1982 OSU won 27-23

1983 ?

1984 OSU won 24-6

1985 Iowa won 40 - 6 (ouch)

1986 Iowa State beat Iowa 19 -16

1987 OSU won 23 -12

35 minutes ago, jackwebster said:

But other than recency bias, why does it feel different? It does feel different, no?

Edited 3 hours ago by jackwebster

[1032004]

28 minutes ago, jackwebster said:

But other than recency bias, why does it feel different? It does feel different, no?

One argument in favor of Iowa is that they won 9 straight titles from 1979-1986, and 6 straight from 1995-2000 (last 3 by Zalesky).  PSU’s most consecutive is 4, which they did twice with only the tOSU title in there for the 8 titles in 9 years.  But in addition to the 9 straight, Iowa also had 9 titles in 10 years from 1991-2000.

http://fs.ncaa.org.s3.amazonaws.com/Docs/stats/wrestling_champs_records/D1.pdf

 

8 minutes ago, 666 said:

Well, we can parse this out logically. I'm not going to go through all 7 of those, but let's take a look at the 79-80 Hawkeyes and today's Nittany Lions.  I'm just going to go straight across on these guys even though the weights don't match perfectly (no 118 pound or unlimited HWT classes today!). 

 left column Iowa, right PSU, finish at NCAAs last tournament for PSU

118  Dan Glenn - 2nd   no modern weight equiv

126 Kerber DNP            125 Luke Lilledahl TBD

134 Lewis      1st            133 Davis R12

142 Zalesky 4th            141 Bartlett 3rd

150 Mueller 3rd             149 Van Ness  3rd

158 Stevenson 7th        157 Kasak 3rd

167 Anderson DNP        165 Mesenbrink 2nd

177 Banach 1st               174 Haines 1st   

190 no qualifier              184 Starocci 1st   197 Barr TBD

HWT Phinney 3rd          HWT Kerkvliet 1st 

Alright, let's score this like a dual. 

118 Glenn forfeit PSU    6-0

125/126 Lilledahl MD Kerber 6-4

133/134 Lewis MD Davis 10-4

141/142 Bartlett dec Zalesky 10-7

149/150 Van Ness dec Mueller 10-10

157-158 Kasak dec Stevenson 10-13

165/167 Mesenbrink TF Anderson 10-18

174/177 Banach dec Haines 13-18

184/190/197 PSU TF "no qualifier" 13-23

HWT Kerkvliet MD Phinney 13-27 

So I have this year's PSU squad beating the 79-80 Hawkeyes 27-13, and that's probably being a bit too generous to the Hawkeyes since I gifted them 6 points at 118 pounds. 

 

 

Looking at the above link, if we’re using the stretch I first listed, their most points was in 1986, where they had 5 champs, a 2nd, a 4th and a 5th.   I’m not getting into comparing individual guys, but those places would certainly stack up with PSU’s expected places especially if we’re talking in a dual.

Edited 3 hours ago by 1032004

[666]

Just now, 1032004 said:

One argument in favor of Iowa is that they won 9 straight titles from 1979-1986, and 6 straight from 1995-2000 (last 3 by Zalesky).  PSU’s most consecutive is 4, which they did twice with only the tOSU title in there for the 8 titles in 9 years.  But in addition to the 9 straight, Iowa also had 9 titles in 10 years from 1991-2000.

http://fs.ncaa.org.s3.amazonaws.com/Docs/stats/wrestling_champs_records/D1.pdf

 

Looking at the above link, if we’re using the stretch in first listed, their most points was in 1986, where they had 5 champs, a 2nd, a 4th and a 5th.   I’m not getting into comparing individual guys, but those places would certainly stack up with PSU’s expected places especially if we’re talking in a dual.

Oh. Well I'm not looking at just the points, I'm looking at the wrestlers and how they match up. This year's PSU team would smoke the 79-80 NCAA champ Hawkeyes. I suspect it would probably look the same through all 7 years if I examined them. 

[1032004]

8 minutes ago, 666 said:

Oh. Well I'm not looking at just the points, I'm looking at the wrestlers and how they match up. This year's PSU team would smoke the 79-80 NCAA champ Hawkeyes. I suspect it would probably look the same through all 7 years if I examined them. 

Is this a “Dan Gable would get killed in today’s NCAA’s” argument, or are you talking in relation to their peers?

Edited 3 hours ago by 1032004

[666]

1 minute ago, 1032004 said:

Is this a “Dan Gable would get killed in today’s NCAA’s” argument, or are you talking in relation to their peers?

Just a straight across comparison across the weights.