Penn State champ confidence rankings

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

From best shot to win a NCAA title to worst:

1.  Mesenbrink 165 - 98%.  Maybe Julian Ramirez can upset him.  Or Barraclough due to the familiarity factor.

2. Starroci 184 - 80%.  Keck could take him out or maybe a new face like McEnelly or Arnold?

3. Haines 174 - 40% I would favor KOT and maybe Hamiti over him.

4. SVN 149 - 35% Despite being dominated by Lovett I think he can beat him and Henson too.  He's already beaten Parco multiple times.

5. Bartlett 141 - 33% I put Mendez and Alirez above him, but he is capable of beating Mendez.

6. Kasak 157 - 25% I have Shapiro over him and Teemer too. I could see him beating all but Shapiro.

7. Lilledahl 125 - 20% This will probably increase by B10s but right now 125 is a very open weight with a lot of experience at the top.

8. Barr 197 - 15% I think Ferrari, Buchanan and Cardenas are far above the rest.  I think Barr is a high AA though.

9. Davis 133 - 10% He could AA or go 2-2 again at NCAAs.

10. Kerkvliet HWT - 5%  Crazy that an undefeated defending NCAA champ is so low but I don't think anyone in the world can beat Steveson.

 

I think Penn State gets 9 AAs (all but Davis) but only 3 champs total.  Mesenbrink, Starocci and one of Haines/SVN/Kasak.

[MLB9]

Aside from some minor statistical details, I see it very similarly. The only one I’m still not sure on is Barr. He might be with that trio in the top tier, jury is still out imo. 
 

SVN beat Henson two years ago, at NCAA’s right? That’ll be an interesting one to follow. I still think he’s as likely to win that weight as any individual is. But Friday was a little alarming. Hoping now it was some sickness that affected him.
 

I don’t think Davis will AA and really hoping Nagao is back next year in 22-23 form.

[Husker_Du]

if Nagao gets back in form, i think we probably see him at 141. Beau graduates and along with Blaze, who will be a TR FR, Nagao is the most likely candidate to fill that void. 

[RawDog]

I think caliendo has an outside shot of beating messenbrink. He had multiple takedowns against him last year, he just melted under messenbrink's crazy pace. I think caliendo will be better prepared this year.

125 is not as wide open as people tend to think. Ramos hasn't given up a takedown and was leading NCAAs in tech falls going into this weekend. Not sure if he still is. I'm not sold on Lilledahl yet. He hasn't beaten anyone good. Caleb smith is overrated.

If crookham is out for the year, 133 is wide open.

[1032004]

2 hours ago, RawDog said:

I think caliendo has an outside shot of beating messenbrink. He had multiple takedowns against him last year, he just melted under messenbrink's crazy pace. I think caliendo will be better prepared this year.

125 is not as wide open as people tend to think. Ramos hasn't given up a takedown and was leading NCAAs in tech falls going into this weekend. Not sure if he still is. I'm not sold on Lilledahl yet. He hasn't beaten anyone good. Caleb smith is overrated.

If crookham is out for the year, 133 is wide open.

So you’re calling Matt Ramos a clear favorite, but simultaneously calling Caleb Smith who beat Ramos last year, not good?

[RawDog]

I'm not saying smith is not good just that he's overrated.  I also suspect Ramos might have had something going on last year. How often does a wrestler go from runner up to dnp without being injured?

[1032004]

33 minutes ago, RawDog said:

I'm not saying smith is not good just that he's overrated.  I also suspect Ramos might have had something going on last year. How often does a wrestler go from runner up to dnp without being injured?

Well you said Lilledahl hasn’t beaten anyone good.

I have no inside info but I don’t believe Ramos was injured last year.  Just a lot of parity at 125.  His loss to Smith was at CKLV, but Ramos beat him at Big Tens. Ramos also beat Ayala and Barnett among others last year. 

Long story short beating Smith shows Lilledahl is in the title conversation if he wasn’t already.

[Truzzcat]

18 hours ago, Husker_Du said:

if Nagao gets back in form, i think we probably see him at 141. Beau graduates and along with Blaze, who will be a TR FR, Nagao is the most likely candidate to fill that void. 

Unless Marcus does some serious lifting, I would imagine he is at 133 next year I think his eyes are on the 61kg spot over the summer and he weighed in at 134 and some change at ironman.

[PortaJohn]

3 hours ago, RawDog said:

I think caliendo has an outside shot of beating messenbrink. He had multiple takedowns against him last year, he just melted under messenbrink's crazy pace. I think caliendo will be better prepared this year.

They wrestled 3 times and I believe he only got a total of 2 takedowns in those matches.  One in the 3rd period of their first match, none in their 2nd, and one in the first period of their semi final match at NCAAs.  I don't know where these other multiple takedowns disappeared to.  

 

[Truzzcat]

I want to see Peyton Hall vs Mitch they did not hit last year so there is still some style intrigue. I do not think Hall beats him, but he has had an outstanding year and he could potentially present some similar issues that Hamiti did in the big 10 finals.

[RawDog]

You are correct, I shouldn't have phrased my point like that. Caleb smith is good but Lilledahl hasn't beating any of the top guys to make me think he can win a championship yet.

Edited Monday at 09:56 PM by RawDog

[Pinnacle]

2 hours ago, RawDog said:

You are correct, I shouldn't have phrased my point like that. Caleb smith is good but Lilledahl hasn't beating any of the top guys to make me think he can win a championship yet.

I won't call a natty for Lilledahl just yet either, but he controlled an experienced wrestler who is likely bigger and stronger than he is . Lilledahl's feet never seem to stop moving. He has something that should not be underestimated.

[Spencerlee]

This could be the greatest team of all time and will probably finish with 2 champs. Crazy.

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

25 minutes ago, Spencerlee said:

This could be the greatest team of all time and will probably finish with 2 champs. Crazy.

Very possible, but I think they could finish with 9 in the top 5

125 LL 5th

133 Davis 2-2

141 BB 3rd

149 SVN 3rd

157 Kasak 2nd

165 MM 1st

174 Haines 2nd

184 Starocci 1st

197 Barr 3rd

HWT Kerk 2nd

[1032004]

55 minutes ago, Spencerlee said:

This could be the greatest team of all time and will probably finish with 2 champs. Crazy.

I’m not sure I’d say “probably.”  Maybe.  

I actually agree with the pastry’s numbers for the most part.  Mesenbrink is the overwhelming favorite, and Starocci is favored as well.  And then they essentially have 8 other guys with a shot.  Sure one of Mesenbrink or Starocci could lose (I’d be shocked if both did), but they could easily have 2 others win.  I think 3 is the most likely number, maybe 4 if we’re going off of history