Soldier Salute

[1032004]

7 hours ago, bnwtwg said:

How many of you on this board have made the decision as a high level wrestler in the modern era including testings to either cut 30 pounds and be ragged, or stay where you are and hope your quickness overcomes the sheer strength advantage, or decide to bulk so hard that you are stiff as a board? I'll raise my hand. A better example of a MUCH more accomplished wrestler would be Jacob Warner. Or Michael Beard. Or Jacob Kasper. Or Kollin Moore. Et cetera et cetera.

My guess is none of you hit 200 until you paid the dad tax with an extra cheeseburger and another beer. I was there by the middle of my sophomore year with a six pack that I maintained until I was 37. I was a better wrestler than football player and I love the sport, so did I make a mistake by going B1G in the wrong sport? A guy I lost to at HS state went pro in the NFL for a few years riding pine and I took me probably 12-15 years before my salary out-earned his fresh out of college paycheck.

So yeah, I think I have an idea. Was I Kyle Snyder or Anthony Cassar? Hell no. They are the outliers, not reality. And last I checked, reality is this sport is withering on the male side directly due to NIL and football in that order, and the average American male is larger than ever. So my non-anecdotal evidence also confirms this butthurt bunch of previously skinny guys sucking in their gut to hunch over the keyboard should get over it and face the raw numbers.

103 is a weak weight full of underclassmen and undersized seniors. That's how I feel about your username.

What is your non-anecdotal evidence?

Let’s look at Midlands as an example (and these numbers are not uncommon):

285: 25 entries

197: 21 entries

141: 31 entries

149: 34 entries

 

Soldier Salute:

285: 20 entries

197: 19 entries

141: 21 entries

149: 28 entries

 

If college closer aligned with international weights, that would mean combining 141 & 149, where we have among the highest participation, into one weight, and adding an additional weight where we have among the lowest.  It doesn’t make sense.  But again, I’m on board with increasing 184 and 197 to better align.

[1032004]

9 hours ago, BruceyB said:

I'm not including guys who are in their 2nd or 3rd year after bumping.. and I would like to see a bigger sample size. I also disagree with you and would consider someone who won a title, then bumped up and won again as an example of someone who did "better" at the next weight up, because 1. they didn't do worse, and 2. whether the weight class is tougher or not, they proved that they could go up in weight and win again by beating a different field of larger competitors.  And my point of running these numbers was to see if there was a correlation between, for example, the improvement rate of guys bumping from 184 to 197 vs guys bumping from 125-133. The goal would be to see which weight has the most bump ups reach the finals and/or win the tournament. The highest success weight jump to the least successful weight jump.

I read through the majority of the back and forth.. but evidence shows that guys who bump up in weight generally do better at their new weight than their old. Not everyone, obviously. So cherry picking examples to support either side here is a waste of time as there are so many examples of either side of the argument. You need a comprehensive list of guys who bumped weights and to know whether they improved or performed worse.

To say guys who "stayed at the same weight do better than those who move up" and then to compare the number of champions who spent their career at a weight vs guys who bumped up is nonsense. Of course there are more champions that didn't jump up because more wrestlers stay at the same weight than jump up!

It's pretty apparent more people perform better then they go up a weight class than not. There are multiple reasons this happens, things like.. they were likely cutting to much weight at hold their previous weight class, and that can obviously have negative effects on performance. They feel better at the new weight and are able to perform better.  They are also another year older, more experienced, and further matured. Going up in weight is generally beneficial because the guys who do it obviously are moving up because their old weight class is no longer their ideal weight. The bump isn't caused by going up a weight class, it is by wrestling in their ideal weight class, rather than holding a weight that they no longer fit.

And when it comes to the Yonger Bastida argument, last year was by far his best year, and happened to be his worst NCAA tournament. He was 26-0 with a ton of top 10 wins including Hendrickson going into the tournament. He had a bad day, was hurt, whatever. In 2022 when he placed, the only wrestler inside of the top 17 he faced was #11.. the bracket broke nicely for him to AA. The next year he lost to #13 and #7, and last year he lost to the #3 and #10. He has lost to everyone in the top 10 he's faced at nationals, and only beat one person in the top 15. 

If you made it this far, thanks for your time!

Yeah I think we mostly agree.

I did call out that we don’t know the ratio of total guys staying the same weight vs moving up.  Are we really sure more guys stay the same vs going up?  I have no idea.  But if you wouldn’t count someone that bumped up in a previous year as having bumped up, then that would make the numbers even more in favor of the non-bumpers.

To that point, I agree that I’d like to see which weights have the highest % of success when bumping up, but along the same lines it would have to be in context with the total number of guys making the jump.  For example my hypothesis would be that 125 to 133 is the most common jump for guys to make, but would have the lowest success %, and 197 to heavyweight would have the highest %, but likely a lower number of total guys that made the jump.

[nhs67]

2 hours ago, 1032004 said:

What is your non-anecdotal evidence?

Let’s look at Midlands as an example (and these numbers are not uncommon):

285: 25 entries

197: 21 entries

141: 31 entries

149: 34 entries

 

Soldier Salute:

285: 20 entries

197: 19 entries

141: 21 entries

149: 28 entries

 

If college closer aligned with international weights, that would mean combining 141 & 149, where we have among the highest participation, into one weight, and adding an additional weight where we have among the lowest.  It doesn’t make sense.  But again, I’m on board with increasing 184 and 197 to better align.

65 KG is 143.3lbs.  It isn't as black and white as 'we combine two middle weights' as it is being projected.

Most 149lbers would go 157lbs over 141lbs, meaning most would go up to 70 KG (+5.3lbs) over going down to 65 KG (-5.7lbs).  If most 149lbers could comfortably make 143.3lbs they would be 141lbers already.

The larger 157lbers would go up to 74 KG (163.1lbs) rather than down to 70 KG (154.3lbs).

You would see some 165lbers go up, but it would be minor compared to 157lberd going up due to 74 KG being the Olympic weight.

174lbers would likely all go 79 KG (174.2lbs) - much like 125lbers to 57 KG (125.7lbs) and 133lbers to 61 KG (134.5lbs)... hell you might see some 141lbers also drop, although I imagine we could count on our hands and toes the total number in D1 that might.

184lbers would likely mostly all go 86 KG (189.6lbs), but some would drop.

197lbers would probably split in thirds - to the aforementioned 86 KG (189.6lbs), 92 KG (202.8lbs) and 97 KG (213.8lbs).

Probably over 80% of the 285lbers stay 125 KG (275.6lbs).

At the end of the day, were NCAA to match up with USAW/UWW weights, that a very small percentage of D1 wrestlers ever even make it to the semi-finals of a WTT, let alone a Final X (or equivalent).  That number goes down pretty drastically if you include D2/D3/NAIA/etc. 

That means less people will be hunting those Olympic weights than you, or most people assume will be.  That said, there will be more people that make an attempt to make a World Team the 75% of the time we have a regular Worlds.  It will be more convenient, as they're already at the weight.

Retherford notably sat the MFS after his senior season because he needed to shrink his body for 65 KG.  Were the weights lined up he would have already been 65 KG or 70 KG and we would have seen him.  We also didn't get to see last years 149lb NC give it a go, either.  Same reasons.

We lose out on many wrestlers peak potential because we cater to a niche style and niche weights that only we wrestle.  You don't see the different tiers of the EFLS using 2 goalies in lower divisions or 9 total players on the field per side.  There is standardization and common understandings down to the youth levels.

Edited January 2 by nhs67

[1032004]

15 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

65 KG is 143.3lbs.  It isn't as black and white as 'we combine two middle weights' as it is being projected.

Most 149lbers would go 157lbs over 141lbs, meaning most would go up to 70 KG (+5.3lbs) over going down to 65 KG (-5.7lbs).  If most 149lbers could comfortably make 143.3lbs they would be 141lbers already.

The larger 157lbers would go up to 74 KG (163.1lbs) rather than down to 70 KG (154.3lbs).

You would see some 165lbers go up, but it would be minor compared to 157lberd going up due to 74 KG being the Olympic weight.

174lbers would likely all go 79 KG (174.2lbs) - much like 125lbers to 57 KG (125.7lbs) and 133lbers to 61 KG (134.5lbs)... hell you might see some 141lbers also drop, although I imagine we could count on our hands and toes the total number in D1 that might.

184lbers would likely mostly all go 86 KG (189.6lbs), but some would drop.

197lbers would probably split in thirds - to the aforementioned 86 KG (189.6lbs), 92 KG (202.8lbs) and 97 KG (213.8lbs).

Probably over 80% of the 285lbers stay 125 KG (275.6lbs).

At the end of the day, were NCAA to match up with USAW/UWW weights, that a very small percentage of D1 wrestlers ever even make it to the semi-finals of a WTT, let alone a Final X (or equivalent).  That number goes down pretty drastically if you include D2/D3/NAIA/etc. 

That means less people will be hunting those Olympic weights than you, or most people assume will be.  That said, there will be more people that make an attempt to make a World Team the 75% of the time we have a regular Worlds.  It will be more convenient, as they're already at the weight.

Retherford notably sat the MFS after his senior season because he needed to shrink his body for 65 KG.  Were the weights lined up he would have already been 65 KG or 70 KG and we would have seen him.  We also didn't get to see last years 149lb NC give it a go, either.  Same reasons.

We lose out on many wrestlers peak potential because we cater to a niche style and niche weights that only we wrestle.  You don't see the different tiers of the EFLS using 2 goalies in lower divisions or 9 total players on the field per side.  There is standardization and common understandings down to the youth levels.

Zain has always had a massive cut to get to 65, I think that’s more just about how big he is in general and there only being 6 Olympic weights vs having anything to do with the college weight. 

Has Henson said he plans on going 65kg at all?  Mendez seemed to do fairly well at 65 though…

That said, I’d be fine with changing 133/141/149 to 135/143/150 or something like that if you want 143 to be closer to 65 kg

[BruceyB]

20 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

65 KG is 143.3lbs.  It isn't as black and white as 'we combine two middle weights' as it is being projected.

Most 149lbers would go 157lbs over 141lbs, meaning most would go up to 70 KG (+5.3lbs) over going down to 65 KG (-5.7lbs).  If most 149lbers could comfortably make 143.3lbs they would be 141lbers already.

The larger 157lbers would go up to 74 KG (163.1lbs) rather than down to 70 KG (154.3lbs).

You would see some 165lbers go up, but it would be minor compared to 157lberd going up due to 74 KG being the Olympic weight.

174lbers would likely all go 79 KG (174.2lbs) - much like 125lbers to 57 KG (125.7lbs) and 133lbers to 61 KG (134.5lbs)... hell you might see some 141lbers also drop, although I imagine we could count on our hands and toes the total number in D1 that might.

184lbers would likely mostly all go 86 KG (189.6lbs), but some would drop.

197lbers would probably split in thirds - to the aforementioned 86 KG (189.6lbs), 92 KG (202.8lbs) and 97 KG (213.8lbs).

Probably over 80% of the 285lbers stay 125 KG (275.6lbs).

At the end of the day, were NCAA to match up with USAW/UWW weights, that a very small percentage of D1 wrestlers ever even make it to the semi-finals of a WTT, let alone a Final X (or equivalent).  That number goes down pretty drastically if you include D2/D3/NAIA/etc. 

That means less people will be hunting those Olympic weights than you, or most people assume will be.  That said, there will be more people that make an attempt to make a World Team the 75% of the time we have a regular Worlds.  It will be more convenient, as they're already at the weight.

Retherford notably sat the MFS after his senior season because he needed to shrink his body for 65 KG.  Were the weights lined up he would have already been 65 KG or 70 KG and we would have seen him.  We also didn't get to see last years 149lb NC give it a go, either.  Same reasons.

We lose out on many wrestlers peak potential because we cater to a niche style and niche weights that only we wrestle.  You don't see the different tiers of the EFLS using 2 goalies in lower divisions or 9 total players on the field per side.  There is standardization and common understandings down to the youth levels.

I want to start by saying that I respect your posts and find your input well thought out and generally insightful. But with your claim that most 149s would go to 157 rather than 141 is irrelevant. Both weight classes are in no man's land when it comes to Olympic weights. Naturally those with 65kg aspirations would prefer to wrestle at 141 which is much closer to 65kg than either 149 or 157.. the reality is that those that end up at 149 more often than not have simply gotten to large to be at their best at 65kg. Most of the problems come from guys having to try to make Olympic weights. If we had 10 weight classes during Olympic years, we wouldn't see Green, Pantaleo, Oliver, Retherford, etc. trying to force themselves into a weight where they are not at there best. Most of these guys are several years removed from college and the weights that they competed at 3, 4, or 5+ years ago isn't their issue at performing at the OTTs. The problem is that we have 15+ pounds difference between Olympic weight classes. The reality is, with the current distribution, 149s are either small for 74 or too big for 65, and 157s are far too large for 65 but still undersized for 74. Zane Retherford is perfect example of someone that isn't large enough to be at his best at 74kg but can't compete at his highest level at 65. James Green is an even better example of someone who can't make 65kg effectively, but isn't large enough to compete at 74kg. If you were talking only about current college athletes, I might agree, but more often than not, we are talking about graduates who have had several years to adjust their bodies to an ideal weight. 

When we are considering college weights to the 10 world weights, as you stated in your post, outside of the heaviest 4 weight classes, the rest are within a few pounds of the college weights.. which wouldn't be an issue for the athletes to adjust to. The problem is that we have athletes focused on Olympic weights which have huge gaps. If the options were 143 and 154 for Olympics, then you would see a more even split among 149s, but the fact is that 149s really only have 1 option, 143, or non olympic 154 which is an obstacle for their Olympic dreams. Knowing that many of them don't have a hope to get big enough and wrestle well enough to dethrone Dake or Burroughs at 163, they have no choice but to make the brutal cut to 143 instead.

An athletes ideal weight is personal, the world weight classes are what they are. If Jordan Oliver's ideal weight was 65kg, he would have gone from 133 to 141.. but the reality is he was too big for 141, and luckily college had a weight for him. He didn't have to choose between 143 and 154. He could wrestle at 149 which was most comfortable.

[nhs67]

3 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Zain has always had a massive cut to get to 65, I think that’s more just about how big he is in general and there only being 6 Olympic weights vs having anything to do with the college weight. 

Has Henson said he plans on going 65kg at all?  Mendez seemed to do fairly well at 65 though…

That said, I’d be fine with changing 133/141/149 to 135/143/150 or something like that if you want 143 to be closer to 65 kg

It was either Henson or one of his coaches just after NCAAs said he intended to go 65 KG, but he never showed up and therr wasn't any smoke on him being injured, or 'too' injured.

As far as Retherford?  I agree on him being a large, physical guy (for his weights).  Had he had a weight he was already at (either 65 KG or 70 KG) we would have seen him more.

That is an opinion, and obviously I know it can be wrong.

[nhs67]

3 hours ago, BruceyB said:

I want to start by saying that I respect your posts and find your input well thought out and generally insightful. But with your claim that most 149s would go to 157 rather than 141 is irrelevant. Both weight classes are in no man's land when it comes to Olympic weights. Naturally those with 65kg aspirations would prefer to wrestle at 141 which is much closer to 65kg than either 149 or 157.. the reality is that those that end up at 149 more often than not have simply gotten to large to be at their best at 65kg. Most of the problems come from guys having to try to make Olympic weights. If we had 10 weight classes during Olympic years, we wouldn't see Green, Pantaleo, Oliver, Retherford, etc. trying to force themselves into a weight where they are not at there best. Most of these guys are several years removed from college and the weights that they competed at 3, 4, or 5+ years ago isn't their issue at performing at the OTTs. The problem is that we have 15+ pounds difference between Olympic weight classes. The reality is, with the current distribution, 149s are either small for 74 or too big for 65, and 157s are far too large for 65 but still undersized for 74. Zane Retherford is perfect example of someone that isn't large enough to be at his best at 74kg but can't compete at his highest level at 65. James Green is an even better example of someone who can't make 65kg effectively, but isn't large enough to compete at 74kg. If you were talking only about current college athletes, I might agree, but more often than not, we are talking about graduates who have had several years to adjust their bodies to an ideal weight. 

When we are considering college weights to the 10 world weights, as you stated in your post, outside of the heaviest 4 weight classes, the rest are within a few pounds of the college weights.. which wouldn't be an issue for the athletes to adjust to. The problem is that we have athletes focused on Olympic weights which have huge gaps. If the options were 143 and 154 for Olympics, then you would see a more even split among 149s, but the fact is that 149s really only have 1 option, 143, or non olympic 154 which is an obstacle for their Olympic dreams. Knowing that many of them don't have a hope to get big enough and wrestle well enough to dethrone Dake or Burroughs at 163, they have no choice but to make the brutal cut to 143 instead.

An athletes ideal weight is personal, the world weight classes are what they are. If Jordan Oliver's ideal weight was 65kg, he would have gone from 133 to 141.. but the reality is he was too big for 141, and luckily college had a weight for him. He didn't have to choose between 143 and 154. He could wrestle at 149 which was most comfortable.

Well back to more of one of my main points:  Most people don't even try MFS while in college, or after.  Or they do it as an extra and go in to it without really practicing MFS.

Were the weights to line up, we would see more give it a proper go.

How many guys that wrestled college last season give OTT a go?

57 KG - 2/11, Cronin (125), Fix (133)

65 KG - 2/12, Bartlett (141), Mendez (141)

74 KG - 3/13, Haines (157), Shapiro (157), Mesenbrink (165)

86 KG - 3/12, Brooks (197), Thicclay (197), Starocci (174)

97 KG - 0/10

125 KG - 2/10, Kerkvliet (285), Hendrickson (285)

Other notables who were on RS or not yet graduated?

57 KG - 3/11, Blaze (132, HS), Lilledahl (126, HS), Forrest (126, HS)

65 KG - 1/12, Alirez (141)

74 KG - 2/13, Facundo (165), Locket (157, HS)

86 KG - 1/13, Mirasola (195, HS)

97 KG - 3/10, Carroll (285), Cassioppi (285), Trumble (197)

125 KG - 0/10

OTT is probably a *I poop my pants, don't laugh at me* tournament to use.  WTT would be better, since there are less requirements to qualify, but I really feel like we see more folks give it a go no than fove years ago and we would see even more if we lined up the weights.

[BruceyB]

3 hours ago, nhs67 said:

Well back to more of one of my main points:  Most people don't even try MFS while in college, or after.  Or they do it as an extra and go in to it without really practicing MFS.

Were the weights to line up, we would see more give it a proper go.

How many guys that wrestled college last season give OTT a go?

57 KG - 2/11, Cronin (125), Fix (133)

65 KG - 2/12, Bartlett (141), Mendez (141)

74 KG - 3/13, Haines (157), Shapiro (157), Mesenbrink (165)

86 KG - 3/12, Brooks (197), Thicclay (197), Starocci (174)

97 KG - 0/10

125 KG - 2/10, Kerkvliet (285), Hendrickson (285)

Other notables who were on RS or not yet graduated?

57 KG - 3/11, Blaze (132, HS), Lilledahl (126, HS), Forrest (126, HS)

65 KG - 1/12, Alirez (141)

74 KG - 2/13, Facundo (165), Locket (157, HS)

86 KG - 1/13, Mirasola (195, HS)

97 KG - 3/10, Carroll (285), Cassioppi (285), Trumble (197)

125 KG - 0/10

OTT is probably a *I poop my pants, don't laugh at me* tournament to use.  WTT would be better, since there are less requirements to qualify, but I really feel like we see more folks give it a go no than fove years ago and we would see even more if we lined up the weights.

I agree that OTT isn't the right tournament to use. Without a doubt many college wrestlers that are seeking to compete at their best weight during the collegiate season where there are 10 weights, and then that is shrunk to 6 just weeks later, aren't going to be in their best for having to make a completely different weight just weeks later.

I think the lack of college competitors at either OTT or WTT comes from the fact that the event comes so close after a long, grueling college season and most guys just want or need a break, whether fatigue, tired of holding the weight, injuries, whatever the reason. Not to mention that there are very few college guys at each weight who probably truly believe they could be USA's rep.