"Cowboy Screw Job"

[lu1979]

13 hours ago, MPhillips said:

"Well over" like all but two, three if we're feeling very, very cocky...

Cael wouldn't be likely to win at any other program unless he got some of his current or prospective N Lions to follow him.  If the all of the current and incoming studs stay at PSU the lucky guy who inherits that job will be the next guy to coach his team to a national title.  On the other hand if Cael goes just about anywhere and all his boys follow him .....

[fishbane]

2 hours ago, 1032004 said:

I have a hard time believing Scott would have had more than about a 1% chance of winning a title at OSU as long as Cael is still coaching.   But I’d probably say that about most current coaches.

Thanks for the research, but I’m not sure they’ve convinced me that Scott was any better than the 3rd best coach in the ACC.  So where would you have ranked Scott as a coach in the ACC? Certainly behind Pop based on your numbers.  I guess you’re trying to say Robie’s situation isn’t comparable.  What about Keith Gavin?  Looks like this will be his 8th season.   And Gavin finished ahead of Scott at Scott’s last 2 ACC tournaments.

I've added Gavin and Baumgartner to the table.  Gavin really hasn't have the same level of success at the national tournament as the other guys.  He has only coached 4 AAs in 7 years which is a little unlucky because his best team may have been during the COVID year.  His team this season was definitely greater than the sum of its parts - I think they beat Ohio State in a dual.  I think he's done a good job, but I don't think this would set him up for a bigger gig yet.  His guys have been inconsistent.  Wentzel, Matthews, and Bonaccorsi have all struggled at times to duplicate their success and it really is only those three guys that have driven his success at the National tournament.  Micky Phillippi never making the podium was disappointing. 

I don't think it's crazy to have Scott as 3rd best coach in the ACC at the time of his departure, but it's pretty close.  I also don't think it would be crazy for him to get the OSU job over the other guys in the table given his competition success, the trajectory the UNC program was on, his affiliation with OSU, and the improvement at OSU that coincided with his arrival.  I don't think he was screwed out of the position either.  

Sanderson's PSU has won 11 of the last 13 NCAA tournaments. The field has been successful over PSU only 15% of the time.  Even the best coaches in D1 only have had a 7.5% success rate.  John Smith's theoretically probability has to something less than that.  Maybe 5%.  Scott's probably in the single digits.  

[fishbane]

2 hours ago, lu1979 said:

Cael wouldn't be likely to win at any other program unless he got some of his current or prospective N Lions to follow him.  If the all of the current and incoming studs stay at PSU the lucky guy who inherits that job will be the next guy to coach his team to a national title.  On the other hand if Cael goes just about anywhere and all his boys follow him .....

I've considered the mental experiment of what if Sanderson went back to ISU or some other lesser program. Could he build them up to win a team title?  How long would it take?

In some ways it will be easier because Sanderson now has this massive reputation as a coach that he didn't have at ISU, but in other ways it will be more difficult.  Now PSU will have this massive legacy all its own.  All the high school kids that see PSU winning probably think more that they want to wrestle for PSU more than Sanderson specifically.  It will be like him recruiting against himself to get the incoming athletes.  Some athletes may follow, but I doubt all of them.  The best ones likely have NIL deals that could keep them in place.  The NIL money isn't going to instantly follow Sanderson to the new location.  He will have to try and rebuild that.  Perhaps Cunningham stays because his kids are still in school and even if he doesn't I'm sure whoever gets that job will be a massive name.  It could be a 5-10 year process for Sanderson to bring some other team into title contention.