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Trump and the Race for Cash


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  • 2 weeks later...

Q: When is $9 billion not $9 billion dollars?

A: When it is tied up for six months in Trump Media stock.

Yesterday the company filed a prospectus to issue additional shares for a wide variety of reasons to a handful of holders. Some of it will come from the exercise of options granted to the financiers, some of it may come from additional shares issued to Trump (assuming the stock stays above 17.50-ish for a period of time).

In the same prospectus they filed to allow Trump to sell all of his shares when the lockup period expires.

This now becomes the real race for cash.

What will Trump Media shares be worth by the time Trump is able to sell? And remember, his cost basis is zero. So it is all profit, even if he sells at $0.01.

At the current rate of free fall it does not look promising. After opening at $70.90 on March 26, the first day of trading, it has dropped nearly 67% to below $24. While that drop has been persistent (it has closed lower on 11 of 15 days), there have been two main events that caused larger than average daily drops.

  1. When DJT filed financials with revenue of only $4 million and losses of $58 million, the stock dropped $13.30 (-22%).
  2. With the filing of this prospectus and the market realization that 256% of the public float will likely be sold ASAP when the lockups expire, the stock was down $5.98 (-18%) yesterday.

Open questions:

  1. Will Trump be able to earn the additional earnout shares? Or will the stock drop below the key levels between $12.50 and $17.50, invalidating the extra shares?
  2. Regardless what will the price be when Trump begins to sell his shares the second the lockup expires? Before answering, remember that he will be selling more shares than are currently publicly available.
  3. With a bunch of other selling shareholders (the financiers), now what do we think the stock trades for?
  4. How come no one has posted their receipts yet? If you liked it at $70, you should love it at $24.

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Well, Trump's GA trial has been railroaded by the Appeals court.   That will take some time.   And the classified papers trial is on indefinite postponement.   

And who bets that Trump's appeal of the NY civil  trial $500 million verdict gets struck down?

mspart

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