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Chance of a Team w 8, 9, 10AA's this year

Elevator

By Elevator
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dragit College Starter

dragit

Posted
Posted
  On 3/16/2024 at 9:48 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

 

Next closest is NC State at 5.56 (i,e. 56% chance of 6, 44% chance of 5).

image.thumb.png.943bfb72b5b4745cd1d714fa03ac2f92.png

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Would a knownothing who knowseverything know many times, if ever, has an ACC team finished in the top two team scores?  N.C. State could be the biggest story of the tournament if PSU doesn't break the points record?

Wrestleknownothing Big Brain

Wrestleknownothing

Posted
Posted
  On 3/17/2024 at 7:49 PM, dragit said:

Would a knownothing who knowseverything know many times, if ever, has an ACC team finished in the top two team scores?  N.C. State could be the biggest story of the tournament if PSU doesn't break the points record?

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Close, but not quite. Pitt finished second a couple times in the 50's(1954 and 1957), but they were in the EIWA at the time.

Great point, an ACC team in secomd would be a big story.

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

MLB9 State Champion

MLB9

Posted
Posted
  On 3/17/2024 at 11:21 PM, jajensen09 said:

Smith, van dee, hardy,lovett,Robb, Taylor, Pinto, Allred. Nebraska has a real shot at 8 AAs.

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No they don’t. I know you don’t like math/statistics, but the probability of that happening based on the current seeds is extremely low, I’m guessing less than 1%.  But I’m learning, “all about the matchups”, isn’t it.

  • Haha 1
MLB9 State Champion

MLB9

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2024 at 3:29 AM, Wrestleknownothing said:

I can't believe you left Hutmacher off the list.

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What is that likelihood based on how you assign probability to seeds? Leave Hutmacher off haha, my dog is more likely to turn into a dragon overnight than all nine happening.

Wrestleknownothing Big Brain

Wrestleknownothing

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2024 at 3:34 AM, MLB9 said:

What is that likelihood based on how you assign probability to seeds? Leave Hutmacher off haha, my dog is more likely to turn into a dragon overnight than all nine happening.

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3.9% without Hutmacher. 

0.02% with Hutmacher.

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

jajensen09 NCAA All-American

jajensen09

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2024 at 3:16 AM, MLB9 said:

No they don’t. I know you don’t like math/statistics, but the probability of that happening based on the current seeds is extremely low, I’m guessing less than 1%.  But I’m learning, “all about the matchups”, isn’t it.

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Tell me who has a 1% chance to AA on that list???

jajensen09 NCAA All-American

jajensen09

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2024 at 3:50 AM, MLB9 said:

Oh wow. I thought it’d be less than 3.9% just between Smith, Van Dee, and Allred.  Thank you sir

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Have you not been watching Van dee and Allred lately?? Van dee is tough as nails and Allred has really came around 

jajensen09 NCAA All-American

jajensen09

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2024 at 3:16 AM, MLB9 said:

No they don’t. I know you don’t like math/statistics, but the probability of that happening based on the current seeds is extremely low, I’m guessing less than 1%.  But I’m learning, “all about the matchups”, isn’t it.

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Damn right it's about matchups! If it's all purely based off what you are seeded then why even wrestle the tournament 

NM1965 NCAA Qualifier

NM1965

Posted
Posted
  On 3/17/2024 at 11:21 PM, jajensen09 said:

Smith, van dee, hardy,lovett,Robb, Taylor, Pinto, Allred. Nebraska has a real shot at 8 AAs.

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NU is pretty good, but I'd say the ceiling on AAs for them is 5 or 6 out of that group, unless they got super lucky. 

Pinnacle NCAA Champion

Pinnacle

Posted
Posted
  On 3/17/2024 at 11:21 PM, jajensen09 said:

Smith, van dee, hardy,lovett,Robb, Taylor, Pinto, Allred. Nebraska has a real shot at 8 AAs.

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  On 3/18/2024 at 3:16 AM, MLB9 said:

No they don’t. I know you don’t like math/statistics, but the probability of that happening based on the current seeds is extremely low, I’m guessing less than 1%.  But I’m learning, “all about the matchups”, isn’t it.

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  On 3/18/2024 at 4:49 AM, jajensen09 said:

Tell me who has a 1% chance to AA on that list???

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He didn't claim any of them by themselves has a less than 1 percent chance of AA, he claimed all 8 of them doing it is less than 1 percent chance. 

  • Bob 1
NM1965 NCAA Qualifier

NM1965

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2024 at 1:08 PM, jajensen09 said:

Who out of the 8 will absolutely not AA?

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Only 4 of the guys you listed are even seeded in the top 8, seems like it would take a good deal of luck to get even 5 or 6 AAs, let alone 8. 

jajensen09 NCAA All-American

jajensen09

Posted
Posted
  On 3/18/2024 at 3:21 PM, NM1965 said:

Only 4 of the guys you listed are even seeded in the top 8, seems like it would take a good deal of luck to get even 5 or 6 AAs, let alone 8. 

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125 who knows what will happen. Allred and vandee wrestling very well.... not sure who else you are counting out

NM1965 NCAA Qualifier

NM1965

Posted
Posted (edited)
  On 3/18/2024 at 3:23 PM, jajensen09 said:

125 who knows what will happen. Allred and vandee wrestling very well.... not sure who else you are counting out

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I'm not counting anybody out. I'm an old timer who has seen an unseeded guy with a losing record win the whole ball of wax. I'm saying NU might have 5 or 6 AAs out of the 8 you listed. If they do better than that, good for NU. 

Edited by NM1965

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