Chance of a Team w 8, 9, 10AA's this year

[dragit]

21 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

 

Next closest is NC State at 5.56 (i,e. 56% chance of 6, 44% chance of 5).

Would a knownothing who knowseverything know many times, if ever, has an ACC team finished in the top two team scores?  N.C. State could be the biggest story of the tournament if PSU doesn't break the points record?

[Wrestleknownothing]

33 minutes ago, dragit said:

Would a knownothing who knowseverything know many times, if ever, has an ACC team finished in the top two team scores?  N.C. State could be the biggest story of the tournament if PSU doesn't break the points record?

Close, but not quite. Pitt finished second a couple times in the 50's(1954 and 1957), but they were in the EIWA at the time.

Great point, an ACC team in secomd would be a big story.

[dragit]

2 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Close, but not quite. Pitt finished second a couple times in the 50's(1954 and 1957), but they were in the EIWA at the time.

Great point, an ACC team in secomd would be a big story.

Thanks emoji

[jajensen09]

Smith, van dee, hardy,lovett,Robb, Taylor, Pinto, Allred. Nebraska has a real shot at 8 AAs.

[MLB9]

3 hours ago, jajensen09 said:

Smith, van dee, hardy,lovett,Robb, Taylor, Pinto, Allred. Nebraska has a real shot at 8 AAs.

No they don’t. I know you don’t like math/statistics, but the probability of that happening based on the current seeds is extremely low, I’m guessing less than 1%.  But I’m learning, “all about the matchups”, isn’t it.

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 hours ago, jajensen09 said:

Smith, van dee, hardy,lovett,Robb, Taylor, Pinto, Allred. Nebraska has a real shot at 8 AAs.

I can't believe you left Hutmacher off the list.

[MLB9]

3 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I can't believe you left Hutmacher off the list.

What is that likelihood based on how you assign probability to seeds? Leave Hutmacher off haha, my dog is more likely to turn into a dragon overnight than all nine happening.

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 minute ago, MLB9 said:

What is that likelihood based on how you assign probability to seeds? Leave Hutmacher off haha, my dog is more likely to turn into a dragon overnight than all nine happening.

3.9% without Hutmacher. 

0.02% with Hutmacher.

[ionel]

4 hours ago, jajensen09 said:

Smith, van dee, hardy,lovett,Robb, Taylor, Pinto, Allred. Nebraska has a real shot at 8 AAs.

 

kid's gonna AA

[MLB9]

9 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

3.9% without Hutmacher. 

0.02% with Hutmacher.

Oh wow. I thought it’d be less than 3.9% just between Smith, Van Dee, and Allred.  Thank you sir

[jajensen09]

1 hour ago, MLB9 said:

No they don’t. I know you don’t like math/statistics, but the probability of that happening based on the current seeds is extremely low, I’m guessing less than 1%.  But I’m learning, “all about the matchups”, isn’t it.

Tell me who has a 1% chance to AA on that list???

[jajensen09]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I can't believe you left Hutmacher off the list.

Terrible draw. He has came along ways though!

[jajensen09]

59 minutes ago, MLB9 said:

Oh wow. I thought it’d be less than 3.9% just between Smith, Van Dee, and Allred.  Thank you sir

Have you not been watching Van dee and Allred lately?? Van dee is tough as nails and Allred has really came around 

[jajensen09]

1 hour ago, MLB9 said:

No they don’t. I know you don’t like math/statistics, but the probability of that happening based on the current seeds is extremely low, I’m guessing less than 1%.  But I’m learning, “all about the matchups”, isn’t it.

Damn right it's about matchups! If it's all purely based off what you are seeded then why even wrestle the tournament 

[NM1965]

13 hours ago, jajensen09 said:

Smith, van dee, hardy,lovett,Robb, Taylor, Pinto, Allred. Nebraska has a real shot at 8 AAs.

NU is pretty good, but I'd say the ceiling on AAs for them is 5 or 6 out of that group, unless they got super lucky. 

[jajensen09]

4 minutes ago, NM1965 said:

NU is pretty good, but I'd say the ceiling on AAs for them is 5 or 6 out of that group, unless they got super lucky. 

Who out of the 8 will absolutely not AA?

[Pinnacle]

14 hours ago, jajensen09 said:

Smith, van dee, hardy,lovett,Robb, Taylor, Pinto, Allred. Nebraska has a real shot at 8 AAs.

 

10 hours ago, MLB9 said:

No they don’t. I know you don’t like math/statistics, but the probability of that happening based on the current seeds is extremely low, I’m guessing less than 1%.  But I’m learning, “all about the matchups”, isn’t it.

 

8 hours ago, jajensen09 said:

Tell me who has a 1% chance to AA on that list???

 

He didn't claim any of them by themselves has a less than 1 percent chance of AA, he claimed all 8 of them doing it is less than 1 percent chance. 

[NM1965]

2 hours ago, jajensen09 said:

Who out of the 8 will absolutely not AA?

Only 4 of the guys you listed are even seeded in the top 8, seems like it would take a good deal of luck to get even 5 or 6 AAs, let alone 8. 

[jajensen09]

1 minute ago, NM1965 said:

Only 4 of the guys you listed are even seeded in the top 8, seems like it would take a good deal of luck to get even 5 or 6 AAs, let alone 8. 

125 who knows what will happen. Allred and vandee wrestling very well.... not sure who else you are counting out

[NM1965]

2 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

125 who knows what will happen. Allred and vandee wrestling very well.... not sure who else you are counting out

I'm not counting anybody out. I'm an old timer who has seen an unseeded guy with a losing record win the whole ball of wax. I'm saying NU might have 5 or 6 AAs out of the 8 you listed. If they do better than that, good for NU. 

Edited March 18 by NM1965

[SocraTease]

16 hours ago, jajensen09 said:

Smith, van dee, hardy,lovett,Robb, Taylor, Pinto, Allred. Nebraska has a real shot at 8 AAs.