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Posted

I would take the over, if asked, on this one.

Then when looking at it deeper... I could totally buy ~30 points and see each gent placing around where they are pre-season ranked.  Some could over, some could under...

"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

Posted
2 hours ago, Ohio Elite said:

Why so brutal on Feldman? Ouch!

Yeah, I did a poor job of formatting there. The probability column should go to the hundredths like this:

image.png.54bb6c8576d92d3ccda1517201400547.png

Then you see that as a 20 seed he would have a 3% chance of AAing. And that is not a statement about Feldman. It is a statement about the history of guys who were the 20 seed.

Now if Feldman has a strong season and winds up a 10 seed then his probability goes up to 37%. As an 8 seed it jumps to 49%. Even a 1 seed is not guaranteed to AA (98.5%).

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