My take is we will look back on Oct. 7th as the point when Iran miscalculated and went too far. They have created a situation where if they don’t respond they look weak, which is a big no no in the Middle East. It is very dangerous domestically for the regime. If they do respond, they risk getting drawn into a fight with Israel. In the last week Israel has shown that they have been pushed too far and the status quo that has existed recently is gone. All red lines that Iran and their proxies thought existed are gone. Iran’s strategy has not been to get into a war with Israel, but to use their proxies to make life unlivable there. What they didn’t count on was getting hit at home. Israel can easily take out their oil fields and refineries, which is probably check mate for the regime their.
Israel has shown recently they will go their if needed.
Make no mistake, taking out Nasrallah is a game changer.