BuckyBadger

5 more years to go…

I don’t think there was a coordinated effort by central banks of allies like Canada and the EU to dump US treasuries. That would be a major event covered widely in the media. I couldn’t access most of the articles you posted but from what I could read is that foreign money is simply being pulled from the US because the fear is the tariffs represent a real change in the World order that has existed for 3 generations now. The idea that the US is pulling away from their role as the global hegemon, that the reliability of the US as a financial partner (and in others ways too) is starting to change. That concern is very real. If the idea that the US is not going to play the role it has since WWII then you probably will see foreign money continue to move out and eventually into China and other places. Now who knows how far this goes. I don’t think any of what I’ve said above is inevitable. But I think Trump can’t walk this back and go back to business as usual. There has been real damage to the US reputation in the eyes of our allies. Even if he reverses course, it will take some time to undo the damage.

Are you saying Carney led a coordinated effort with US allies to sell US government debt? I have not seen anything like that, are you able to post it here?

Ok, so why did ten year treasury yields go up to 4.5? There is something called the basis trade. Hedge funds borrow heavily to buy treasuries and sell a hedge like futures against the treasury. Because they borrow, or trade on margin to buy treasuries, they can get a margin call and be forced to sell their positions. As treasuries started selling off, everyone on the same side of this trade started getting margin calls, so there were forced to sell and it created a bit of a downward spiral.

It’s really hard to predict what might happen with rates, the stock market, the economy etc. A few weeks ago rates were trending down and the market expected the Fed to cut rates. Fast forward to today and with the tariff announcements expectations obviously changed. I think a lot of this depends on how far Trump is willing to go as far as decoupling from China. If he’s serious, then it probably does mean there will be some real economic pain. Higher supply chain costs —> higher prices —>inflation. That usually means higher interest rates. China could also dump a lot of their treasuries and drive yields higher. The other scenario is Trump has already backed off on most of the tariffs for everyone except China. He has even come out with statements like he and Xi have a great relationship and there is a good chance of a deal with China. To me that indicates he isn’t serious about truly decoupling and enduring the pain we’d need to in order to pivot away from China. I really don’t know where all this goes, but my guess is he probably has to walk a lot of this stuff back while some how trying to declare victory without much meaningful change. We probably get some more volatility in the markets. I wish I had bought when the S&P 500 was down 20% from its high. History has shown that works out really well. Maybe we get back down there and maybe this thing really spirals and it goes even lower. If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years it’s to just buy when the price craters, don’t try and analyze too much, because it’s too complex to really figure out. Markets are simply a bunch of human emotions pushing against each other. I didn’t buy at the lows because I made that mistake to “analyze”, if it gets down there again I plan to just hold my nose and pull the trigger. Hope that helps, but probably tells you nothing you didn’t know already!

I work in the treasury department of a large corp managing interest rate risk.

Yeah, the teams with no money for NIL, and that can only offer partial scholarships are pretty loyally

With Ryder to OSU, a big competitor, this looks more like a bad decision by Cael and staff. I guess time will tell.

My money is on Sacred Heart. The Holy Spirit sent him a message.

As a badger fan I hope they do not go after AJ. He is not the way to turn things around.

I agree to an extent but at this level it’s almost like splitting hairs. You might eke out an inch better performance, but if it doesn’t work out you potentially lose on both recruits (one doesn’t perform as expected and the other leaves). There is a certain risk they are taking on for an unclear benefit. Of course, they’re PSU so they’re not going to have a problem stocking up on talent. So it’s not like they’re at risk of dropping to 5th place or something.

I suppose the other possibility is Ryder was already on the way out and that’s why they brought in Welsh.

The get Welsh but lose Ryder. These two seem like a wash to me. Even if Welsh ends up with slightly better results, points wise at NCAAs, there is very little difference. The flip scenario is Ryder is better than Welsh. Then the staff looks pretty short sighted here. Maybe even more important in this what it does to team cohesiveness. Just a few days ago before all this transfer stuff Starocci tweeted something in support of Ryder. That obviously didn’t work out. i get bringing someone in for a weight that underperforms PSUs standards, but recruiting over Ryder seems to have much more potential negatives than positives here.

College wrestling is still fun, but becoming less fun

Not much chatter about him. Freshman NCAA champ who I think was the 50th rated recruit. Most freshman champs would betting their own “Potential 4 timer” threads. I don’t know much about him. I’m sure he was good and maybe a bit under the radar coming in, but surprised there isn’t more discussion about him. Maybe one of those guys that just made leaps once he got to a good college room.