Wrestleknownothing

33, I think, if nothing else changed. Massively unlikely, but imagine the magnitude of the horse trade that it would require.

More likely I think, though not likely at all, is that McCarthy convinces a bunch of Democrats not to vote so that he becomes Speaker.

"Chop wood, carry water, go for the Speaker of the House ballot record." - Nick Lee That last part was more implied than stated, but if you listen closely...

We are still far from what appears to be the record, 160 ballots (the first 159 requiring majority and the 160th requiring plurality) in 1856. Don't be quitters.

Check the course descriptions

Now you're getting it.

It seems like a lot of people trace ducking/seed protection/decline of duals as a meaningful competition to the idea that the only thing that matters is the NCAA tournament. If that is the case then it seems to me that no tweaking or wholesale changes to how duals is going to do anything to change that dynamic. If this is the case then it seems to me that having a team title decided by a dual format, where qualification is tied to dual results, is the only way to make duals meaningful again. Now, good luck getting a team title based on a dual format to happen.

Nor should they. Husker's gonna Husker cuz Husker should Husker.

Mea Culpa. I had a filter on that page. Can't remember why. No one noticed Army was missing too.

The local community college doesn't have a Civics correspondence course?

OK, so I am tired of being a buzz kill. The path for Nebraska is to wrestle the 2023 tournament just like they wrestled the 2022 tournament. Last year 75% of their team wrestled at or above their seeds. They do something like that (along with continue to improve at their current pace) and third is not out of the question.

Not exactly. If you total includes bonus points then 65 is not enough. It would have gotten fourth in zero of the last thirteen tournaments. However, if you are arguing for 65 placement and advancement points (i.e. Robb and Labriola win) PLUS bonus (roughly 78 points total) then it would have been good enough to take fourth in seven of the last thirteen.

To help understand why a #1 seed is not credited with the maximum advancement and placement points see the below table. The row labels are the seeds and the column labels are the finishes. The percentages sum horizontally, not vertically. So, only 52.5% of #1 seeds actually finished as champs. Another 20.8% were runners up. And 1.6% failed to even AA.

The two highest scoring wrestlers in the 2022 tournament scored 46 points combined. It is a little aggressive to assume that Peyton Robb and Mike Labriola will combine for 45 points. That would be their high end, not their "should be". But that also includes bonus points. My expected points total is only advancement and placement points (same as the ranking services). That said here is the Nebraska breakdown:

With apologies to @jajensen09 here are the updated NCAA tournament projections based on individual rankings per ranking service: Sadly Nebraska is still outside the top 4 in all three services based on expected advancement and placement points (reminder: expected points are based on actual points scored by seed from 2010 - 2022 and rankings are treated as seed projections). The difference between my methodology and the ranking services' methodology is that the ranking services all over value a top 8 seed and undervalue seeds 9 through 33. Their methodology assumes the only wrestles who will score are those that are in the top 8, which is just not realistic (but it is easy). Now for the good news for Nebraska. They are up and coming. Depending on who you ask they are the second or third most improved team since the pre-season.

That is not the way forward.

As I read through those rules it struck me as amusing that on two occassions in the 1800s when they could not reach a majority they passed a resolution to settle for a plurality (which was then ratified by a majority). If they did that on any of the first three votes yesterday a Republican Congress would have chosen a Democratic Speaker.

I am curious how you think that works.

Rounding error.

In @jajensen09's defense, Flo already updated their rankings post holiday tournaments and Intermat has not yet.

Good news for @bnwtwg's conscience.

Neither need to happen for PSU to run away with the title. But I would say Greg Kerkvliet is a clear favorite right now over Cohlton Schultz and Max Dean has at least a 25% chance of making the finals. And historically things only get more favorable for PSU come March.

Tougher than what? In 2021 Roman Bravo-Young and Nick Lee were the 2 seed and Carter Starocci was the 3 seed, meaning they had the "tough" semi. That turned out alright. Of their four champs that year only Aaron Brooks was the 1 seed. In 2022 the script was flipped. This time only Brooks wasn't the 1 seed. Again, it turned out alright.

As a reminder of how highly seeded wrestlers have performed by school from 2010 - 2022 (lets call it the Cael Sanderson era). Only schools that averaged 1 or more top 4 seeds per year are included. For wrestlers eliminated prior to the AA bouts I give them credit for the top end of the range that they were eliminated. For example, all four blood round losers are credited with ninth. I also have mid-point and bottom of range data, but it doesn't change anything. The bottom graph shows the total number of wrestlers with top 4 seeds.