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Wrestleknownothing

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Posts posted by Wrestleknownothing

  1. image.png.af72b84e31569076f29bda051565bcce.png

    Based on this week's individual wrestler rankings.

    As a reminder:

    • I equate rank with seed
    • Expected points is based on the average placement and advancement points by seed from 2010 - 2022
    • Max Points is based on the maximum placement and advancement points if the rank equals the final placement
    • Mean Points is like Max except it accounts for the fact that there are multiple paths for wrestlers to finish third through twenty-fourth, and therefore multiple possible advancement point outcomes.
    • I added these last two columns because of the difference between where anOSU and Mizzou would finish in the Intermat rankings based on different ways to count points.
    • Fire 3
  2. 5 minutes ago, jchapman said:

    Great point. But if you don't award the MFF points, then the reverse could happen.  A team could potentially choose to MFF as a strategy to preserve a close team win and not risk giving up bonus points.

    Also a great point. If you are leading by two, two and a half or three, MFF and lock in the one point win, half point win or tie. Hmmm. Let's speculate on which coach would stoop so low.

  3. I mentioned that I needed to add bonus points into my estimations of team finishes based on the major ranking services. Turns out that extracting bonus point data at the individual wrestler level is a very heavy lift, so in true know nothing form, I did not do that lift.

    Instead I took a look at the total bonus points per year by weight from 2010 - 2022. I separated the first and last rounds from the middle rounds on each side of the bracket to create six categories. As expected, it gets harder to score bonus points as the tournament goes on, with one exception:

    image.png.e4ece0594e423237324919d07d233256.png

    The exception is in the third, fifth, and seventh place matches (Last Round, Consolation Bracket). But this number is greatly inflated by the number of medical forfeits in those matches. Which raises the question, should bonus points be awarded for medical forfeits in the third, fifth, and seventh place matches given that there is a chance that could decide a team podium position?

    It looks like this happened in 2015. Missouri beat out Cornell for fourth by two points. And in the 141 seventh place match, Lavion Mayes received the automatic extra placement point and two bonus points when Anthony Ashnault was unable to wrestle for a potential three point swing.

    The next closest this came to happening was 2016. Virginia Tech beat out Iowa for fourth place by a single point. If either of Iowa's two eighth place finishers that year had instead been the beneficiary of a MFF they would have come in third.

  4. 3 hours ago, 98lberEating2Lunches said:

    Seriously?  Taking credit for membership contribution is a no lose sucker bet.  Then again, P.T. Barnum did say there's a sucker born every minute.

    You are making the assumption that my contribution would have been greater than zero otherwise. Since this is the first time I have ever made a contribution, your assumption is on shaky ground.

  5. 4 minutes ago, Viratas said:

    I have been away far too long and forgot that people like to cling to one word in a comment and then call you an idiot or say something like Absurd. Because I am sure your direct experiences are the same as mine. Many kids coming out of HS who are also interested in playing a college sport have some level of post-secondary courses. Kids now realize the importance of having good grades, unlike when I was coming out. Also, many parents understand that it can also save them money. So to be clear and not "Absurd," based on the athletes my daughter played with, based on all the coaches I know (in numerous sports), many student-athletes are taking advantage of post-secondary opportunities.

    Furthermore, AP classes are the only way an HS Student can get college credit. There are several ways students can obtain those credits without taking any AP classes. But yes, my opinion is clearly "Absurd." At least I am good at something. Thank you for setting me on the correct path. 

    You know what else is absurd? The idea that they can keep dumping bodies off the same curve in the road and no one will notice a pile of bodies laying at the bottom of the cliff and begin to investigate. We have a mass murderer as our protagonist, for god's sake.

    • Fire 1
  6. 27 minutes ago, ionel said:

    let's see the data, if a majority should be easy to find the data.  Most all undergrad programs are designed to be completed in 4 years (could be a couple exceptions like Architecture).  @Wrestleknownothing is now rocket scientists status and we know very good with data, maybe he can help put together some tables. 

    After completing an exhaustive study of students who were once on the dole in my house (sample size=4), I have conclusively determined that half of all students take more than four years to graduate.

    • Haha 1
  7. 7 minutes ago, RYou said:

    I agree with the academic preparation aspect.  While many kids are smart enough to graduate in 4 years, many are not.  All sports, except maybe swimming golf and tennis recruit kids that aren't rocket scientists and barely qualify to attend the easiest of admission schools.  The first year red shirt enables the school to provide academic tutoring to get those kids accommodated to campus academics and have a chance of actually graduating.  I suspect many schools know a kid specific kid is only looking to get to a point talent wide to be drafted and there is no intent to finish with a sheepskin, and the school steers academics to meet the minimum eligibility standards.I'm sure this scenario occurs far less in collegiate wrestling as opposed to football, basketball and hockey.

    You hear that? Us swimmers are a bunch of rocket scientists.

  8. 51 minutes ago, Dark Energy said:

    Just because there is something that is worse doesn’t mean we should try to stop bad things that aren’t as bad.  And just because something bad has happened for a long time, doesn’t make it good or that it is not worth trying to stop.

    Redshirts are a perversion.  An excuse for a coach or school to try to have more champions / better team / whatever.   If a kid isn’t ready to wrestle as a freshman, ok — try to start Sophomore year.  Big freaking deal.  Oh no, a maniacal sports fan is going to be upset.  A fan that wants the kid to bend their life trajectory to the fan’s preferences.  
     

    More money to fewer kids since the 9.9 needs to span 5 or 6 years instead of 4 per kid.  

    It’s a bunch of adult’s shortening a kid’s career time span for the sake of the adults enjoying watching sports — and making money off the kids.
     

     

    My point was that you are talking about the symptom, not the disease.

  9. 46 minutes ago, Dark Energy said:

    Harder to do.  Gap years are a thing. If a kid / family wants to delay the start of their career, making money, etc … so that the dad can feel better about the kid’s college wrestling accolades, not much to be done.  
     

    But the school and staff should not sanction it and even promote it.  
     

    It’s all about twisting sport into something more important than it should be for a school.

    You are decades late if you are worried about schools twisting sport into something more important than it should be for a school.

  10. 34 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

    Never heard of him but:

    1) Awesome name

    2) True freshman

    3) Upset Collin Gerardi for the 141 spot for Virginia Tech

    4) Won his first tournament, defeating Isaac Byers (?), Matt Kazimir, Dylan Cedeno, and higher touted freshman Lachlan McNeil.

    image.thumb.png.8a88b84d0fb0a0ed09e1c24642e3692b.png

     

    Should we expect more of this from Crook?  National qualifier and R12/R16 threat as a true freshman?

    Seems the crook has stolen your heart. Somewhere Dean Hamiti sighs forlornly.

    • Haha 1
  11. 10 hours ago, Dark Energy said:

     

    Do we redshirt Tuba players?  Yes. Do we redshirt chemical engineers?  Yes. Do we redshirt actresses?  Yes. Do we redshirt pre-Med majors? Yes. Do we redshirt aspiring diplomats? Yes.

     

    There are no rules saying any of those have to be completed in four years, or five, or any other number.

  12. 1 hour ago, Le duke said:


    Your team regularly and consistently underperforms their (over)seeds.

    Do you dispute this?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    Mizzou certainly had a bad three year run from 2018 - 2021, but other than that they are generally at or better than their seeds. And in 2022 they had 66.6% at or better than their seed.

    image.png.2ee5c5225d9696114b91e04ae466f15f.png

    And their average seed those years was their second, third , and sixth highest.

    image.png.e8732e865ca5c86d077052318938c1db.png

     

    • Fire 1
  13. 20 minutes ago, Tigerfan said:

    Willie, I’m heartily sick of your utter lack of not only respect, but the barest acknowledgment of what Brian Smith and the Tigers have achieved over the last 15 years. I remember those early years of Flo and how Martin begged for respect from coaches like Smith, who was one of the first to grant access to his program, long before your stunted, foul stench besmirched the wrestling landscape. I remember meeting you at Carver before the Tigers won National duals over your beloved Hawkeyes, and your disdain for their abilities and accomplishments were all too obvious, even then. Maybe you’ve never gotten over the fact that Mizzou was simply better, Smith was the better coach. I know Iowa has refused to dual them ever since. I was willing to give you a fresh start due to your efforts to salvage the forum, but you never fail to disappoint. 

    Wow. Choosing the nuclear option.

    • Haha 1
  14. 8 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

    Current tournament ranking on Intermat as of (10/27/22)  Looking forward to this debate.

    1 Penn State Big Ten 100 1
    2 Iowa Big Ten 76.5 2
    3 Arizona State Pac-12 62.5 3
    4 Ohio State Big Ten 62 4
    5 Missouri Big 12 59.5 5

    Right off the bat I assume ASU third is one pec muscle tear ago.

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