Wrestleknownothing

He was listed at 165 at the time by all four services. @lu1979 describes it correctly above. All four services moved Monday to 157 for their second set of rankings at which point Intermat and Flo had Monday at #1 (not sure where WIN had him ranked).

No, mspart is not a word.

Hoisted by my own petard

Disagree. Ohio State could win the Big 12.

I am higher on Real Woods. I think he is a 1 -4 guy rather than a 4 -8.

You remember correctly. Both WIN and Intermat had him #1 in their pre-season rankings.

Let's play that out. Last year Nebraska beat their average seed by an average of 3.8 spots. Using the Intermat rankings (we owe Willie that much, right?) if they out perform their ranking by the same amount this year that gets them to something like 52 placement and advancement points which would have them battling for the last podium spot. Of course, if they keep improving their ranking/seed prior to the tournament then that best case scenario moves higher too.

If Nebraska wrestles this tourney like they wrestled the last NCAA tourney, you will be very happy.

Same data for Nebraska, if you are interested:

I do not think that is correct.

If you look at how often Iowa beats their seed then they are slightly underrated on average with some notable exceptions in each direction. If you look at their average finish to seed (which always skews negative if you are seeded high) then they are slightly overrated, not way overrated:

I am confused. What are the numbers and ranks you typed in?

The last column takes into account this past weekend. The reality is there is no such thing as a lock. Even a #1 seed is not a guarantee. In the last 12 tournaments (2010 - 2022) only 98.33% of #1 seeds finished in the top 8 (118 of 120). Injuries and upsets happen.

Same for Iowa

Here are the probability of AAing by weight, by date, by service for Nebraska

You mean teams not ranked #1, #2, #3, #4, or #5.

This points to a nit pick of mine. I know Flo likes to say their rankings are not ratings or predictions. But then they sometimes are. To me the most glaring example is their team tournament rankings. They come up with their scores by assuming their rankings are where each wrestler will finish thereby turning their ranking into a prediction. Minor point, but that is my especiality.

Wrestlestat Pre-Season Top 20 Wrestlestat Current Top 20

Flo Pre-Season Top 20 Flo Current Top 20

Reminder: I use Intermat, Flo, and Wrestlestat individual rankings. I treat the rankings like they are seeds. EP (expected points) are based on the average advancement and placement points scored by each seed from 2010 - 2022. Max Place & Adv assume each wrester wrestles to seed and takes the most optimal path (advances in the championship bracket as far as possible). Mean Place & Adv assumes each wrestler wrestles to seed but takes the average path for places that have multiple paths. Expected AA is the probability weighted number of All-Americans a team can expect. All sorts are based on EP. Intermat Pre-Season Top 20 Intermat Current Top 20 With Missouri, Cornell and Iowa State moving up it looks to be a three team battle for the last two podium slots. Meanwhile Arizona State, and Ohio State head in the other direction having dropped 12 and 14 points, respectively, from their expected totals. Both teams will look to reverse what has been a rough start to the season. At the top, there has been a modest tightening, but PSU still holds an expected 16.1 point lead over Iowa.

I am not heading down this body shaming black hole.

Congratulations. You have single handedly convinced me that Iowa fans are not very passionate fans of wrestling, what with the not very intense day in spite of the debut of Spencer Lee against the team whose coach called your coach an orange. From now on when I need some quiet time I will haed to Carver to watch you sit on your hands.

Hang on a sec. You have season tix and you DON'T think Carver is the ultimate home mat advantage? My data tells me there is an 83% chance that the problem is in your mirror, semantics baby boy.

I can only assume you have not attended a match at Carver. For reference material go to either BR or BWI and you can read up on "getting Carvered."