For future reference, if you have the probabilities of 10 independent events (like AAing at any of 10 weights) you can get the probability of each 11 outcomes (0 to 10) by doing the algebraic expansion of:
(P1+(1-P1)X)(P2+(1-P2X)....(P10+(1-P10)x)
where P1 through P10 are the individual probabilities.
The expansion will take the form of:
aX^10+bx^9+.....+jx+k
The factors a through k are your probabilities of 0 through 10 events.
For an expansion this big you will want to use an online calculator (or a stat programming language like R).
I used https://www.symbolab.com/solver/expand-calculator
The average price of ground beef in 2022 was $4.81. The average price of ground beef in 2023 was $5.02, 4.3% higher.
https://www.nationalbeefwire.com/retail-ground-beef-prices-by-month-retail-ground-beef-prices-were-at-5-23-lb-in-december
I am not sure what 10 years has to do with 2 years, but as long as we are stretching the window, the S&P 500 is up 277% over the same period.
Again, stop going to McDonalds. Start investing.
First, hamburger is not up 75% since the end of 2022. That is just dumb. Hamburger was up 4.3% in 2023. Not sure what 2024 is so far, but it aint 70%.
Second, invest less in hamburgers, more in stocks.
That is a very different argument than your original argument.
But the point remains, if the old guard keeps beating the younguns, then the old guard earns the spot.
These Monday morning quarterback arguments drive me crazy. Imagine holding a tournament and then NOT sending the winner to represent the US? It makes zero sense to me.
But no youngster beat him at 92 which is why he was there and not a youngster. I assume you know that is what I was talking about, it being a thread prompted by the 92 world championship.