Wrestleknownothing

I found this very brilliant post on another thread. Everyone should listen to this guy: We are being fed a very mixed message on tariffs. Some may call that a lie. Trump has attempted to sell these as retaliation for unfair trade practices (tariffs imposed on US goods, protectionists policies and taxes). If the goal was really to remove those barriers imposed by other nations then you would need to target those nations and those policies to have a chance at being effective. But that is not what happened. Tariffs are being imposed willy-nilly based on balance of trade. They took a hyper simplistic approach. And the effect was predictable. Now other countries will impose retaliatory tariffs on the US. Imbalance of trade can be the result of unfair practices. But what you describe above is not that. Cheaper labor in other countries is a structural advantage. Tariffs will never solve that problem. Tariffs will only serve to import inflation. The tariff formula they used makes matters worse. And they knew what they were doing was simplistic so they attempted to dress up their formula with superscripts and subscripts that have no meaning. And they added Greek letters that exactly offset each other (4 x .25 = 1) while citing studies that DO NOT support those values. This is so poorly executed after being so poorly conceived. That is why the market is selling off hard. A complete unforced error. And Trump will absolutely violate the first rule of holes. Now that he is in one, he keep digging.

For NIL I understand they offered him a singlet that fits.

We are being fed a very mixed message on tariffs. Some may call that a lie. Trump has attempted to sell these as retaliation for unfair trade practices (tariffs imposed on US goods, protectionists policies and taxes). If the goal was really to remove those barriers imposed by other nations then you would need to target those nations and those policies to have a chance at being effective. But that is not what happened. Tariffs are being imposed willy-nilly based on balance of trade. They took a hyper simplistic approach. And the effect was predictable. Now other countries will impose retaliatory tariffs on the US. Imbalance of trade can be the result of unfair practices. But what you describe above is not that. Cheaper labor in other countries is a structural advantage. Tariffs will never solve that problem. Tariffs will only serve to import inflation. The tariff formula they used makes matters worse. And they knew what they were doing was simplistic so they attempted to dress up their formula with superscripts and subscripts that have no meaning. And they added Greek letters that exactly offset each other (4 x .25 = 1) while citing studies that DO NOT support those values. This is so poorly executed after being so poorly conceived. That is why the market is selling off hard. A complete unforced error. And Trump will absolutely violate the first rule of holes. Now that he is in one, he keep digging.

I laughed out loud twice when reading this. First, when he says he wants to set the record straight. For a guy who is notorious for deleting the record when it is his record that needs to be set straight is rich. Then when he says he is in awe of the narratives set up by some. That is his entire existence. Setting up narratives. True, false, uncertain? Who gives a crap. Delete the truly stupid takes, block anyone who keeps track, and move on. His high road attempt makes me disrespect him more. But, I believe what he is saying that Ryder was blindsided.

I am certainly not advocating he move down. I mean, I have not the first clue what is best for him. I guess I am just saying I would not be surprised either way.

Just thought of another who would have gone down, after going up, if he could. Max Dean. If Brooks wasn't in the way he definitely would have gone back to 184. I saw him at dinner once and was marveling at how much he ate and he said he had to because he had a hard time getting heavy enough to wrestle 197. Poor guy. And if you squint you can see it with Bernie Truax too. He went down to 184 at PSU after wrestling 197 at Cal Poly. Again with Aaron Brooks? So I guess it is really all about Aaron Brooks after all. Never mind.

I think the sample size of guys who go up then down is generally small, never mind at a single university. More often than not the up, down (or down, up) is to avoid a guy in your own room. Not a lot of schools have that high class problem. Barr went up to avoid Starocci. And now Starocci is gone. Shakur Rasheed did it as well. He wrestled 165, 174, 197, 184, 197. Similar to Bartlett (and to Barr this year) he went up to 197 both times because he could not beat the 184 (Nickal, then Brooks), even though 184 was his preferred weight. Alex Facundo, too. After qualifying at 165 he went down to 157 last year. Of course, that was to avoid Mesenbrink, and Wrestlestat has him at 174 next year, presumably to avoid Mesenbrink again. And with the transfer portal as wide open as it is I think we will see it even less in the future. That is already playing out at PSU (Facundo and Ryder), we saw it at Iowa last year where guys transferred out rather than change weight or sit on the bench, and there are other examples this year that I am forgetting.

Give me some Gage Marty first semester

That is an extra credit assignment for you.

I like the general idea (I know someone on HVI does this, or did this in the past, for PSU wrestlers), but your instinct is right that the weights need to change. As stated you are giving non-NQ and NQ who not make the BR the same weight. Ditto for BR and AA. Simplifying you equation gets (0.3(Non-NQ + NQ not in BR or better)) + (0.5(NQ in BR or better)) Alternatively, if you meant the categories to be non-overlapping (i.e. NQ who doesn't BR or better, NQ who loses in BR, NQ who AA's) then you are overweighting non-NQ and underweighting AAs. Something like 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, and 0.4 for successive categories would make more sense.

I'm not sure this guy can lift a chair

It is a castle, not a palace.

I am not sure what your point is. YTD the stock market is down 9%.

It is even dumber than you think. I just saw the formula Trump used to decide how each country's tariff was decided. It his nothing to do with being reciprocal, in spite of the marketing tag line. It charges tariffs based on the size of the trade deficit with the US - not on whether there are any tariffs on us. It is the most simplistic calculation possible. Call it the artifice of the deal. Take the trade deficit, divide it by how much we import from that country, then divide by 2. That is the percentage tariff on that country. Why is that dumb, you may reasonably ask? Because many trade deficits are not caused by tariffs or protectionist policies. Many trade deficits are structural. Another country pays its labor less than we pay ours causing goods from that country to cost less. All we are doing then is importing inflation. So now we make our own t-shirts and sneakers? Who wants those jobs? Perhaps we can bring back some immigrants we just deported to handle the work. If Trump really wanted this to work, without blowing up our economy, he would have spent time to actually attack the problem - protectionist policies and tariffs. Instead, he is too lazy to do the hard work and will throw out the baby with the bathwater. Once again - The Dumbest Trade War Ever.