How to rank recruiting classes.

[Truzzcat]

There was a pretty good discourse on FRL today about how you should rank recruiting classes. The main talking point was if you should rank them based on the recruits themselves or overall impact they have on the team. This was brought up because V-tech has an immediate point scorer in Melvin Miller but an overall weaker class based on current body of work than PSU. Another point that was brought up was PSU's depth could inhibit these guys from being 4 year starters or even in the lineup at all which hurts their impact on the team from a cumulative point scoring perspective. I understand this, but I do not think that's how recruiting classes could be done. Its a similar argument to not ranking freshman based on a body of work in freestyle (which I tend to agree with). We know what these kids have done in high school up to this point, there is no way to know what PSU's lineup will be in 2028, how much these kids improve once they get to college, or how much they grow. All that we have to go off of his their current accomplishments so I do not think it is fair to rank them based on lineup fit issues however reasonable they may be.

@Jon_Kozak I was driving back to work over lunch so did not hear if you interjected in on this at all

wondering what you guys think on the topic.


 

 

[HokieDave87]

VT fan here. PSU should be ahead of us in recruiting rankings. Current roster shouldn't count, that being said VT is still probably top 3 minimum. 

[wrestlingfan22]

Just now, Truzzcat said:

There was a pretty good discourse on FRL today about how you should rank recruiting classes. The main talking point was if you should rank them based on the recruits themselves or overall impact they have on the team. This was brought up because V-tech has an immediate point scorer in Melvin Miller but an overall weaker class based on current body of work than PSU. Another point that was brought up was PSU's depth could inhibit these guys from being 4 year starters or even in the lineup at all which hurts their impact on the team from a cumulative point scoring perspective. I understand this, but I do not think that's how recruiting classes could be done. Its a similar argument to not ranking freshman based on a body of work in freestyle (which I tend to agree with). We know what these kids have done in high school up to this point, there is no way to know what PSU's lineup will be in 2028, how much these kids improve once they get to college, or how much they grow. All that we have to go off of his their current accomplishments so I do not think it is fair to rank them based on lineup fit issues however reasonable they may be.

@Jon_Kozak I was driving back to work over lunch so did not hear if you interjected in on this at all

wondering what you guys think on the topic.


 

 

I think the ranking should be based somewhat on the idea of what class has the highest likelihood of scoring the most NCAA points (ignoring lineup fit, just based on the guys in the class). 

So whatever class has the highest confidence of being productive should be the highest class. I would lean PSU over VT for the 27 class, but I also think Melvin is likely a 4x high AA, and that as good as that PSU class is, there is nobody I would say is more likely than not to be more than a 2x AA, so I don't hate VT>PSU

[Truzzcat]

8 minutes ago, HokieDave87 said:

VT fan here. PSU should be ahead of us in recruiting rankings. Current roster shouldn't count, that being said VT is still probably top 3 minimum. 

Bob dole

[Truzzcat]

2 minutes ago, wrestlingfan22 said:

I think the ranking should be based somewhat on the idea of what class has the highest likelihood of scoring the most NCAA points (ignoring lineup fit, just based on the guys in the class). 

So whatever class has the highest confidence of being productive should be the highest class. I would lean PSU over VT for the 27 class, but I also think Melvin is likely a 4x high AA, and that as good as that PSU class is, there is nobody I would say is more likely than not to be more than a 2x AA, so I don't hate VT>PSU

I can get down with that I would have to go back and look but that would make it so if you land one recruit that projects as a 4x AA that could potentially outweigh 6 top 20 guys. Which I do not think is wrong just kinda hard to wrap my head around.

[wrestlingfan22]

An example I would use is PSU's class of 2022, which was just #9 Haines and was unranked by Flo. Haines alone has outscored #2 ISU's entire recruiting class at NCAAs by 23 Points. So even though that ISU class has brought 3 AA performances from 3 different guys to Ames, Levi alone has been more valuable

[wrestlingfan22]

2 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

I can get down with that I would have to go back and look but that would make it so if you land one recruit that projects as a 4x AA that could potentially outweigh 6 top 20 guys. Which I do not think is wrong just kinda hard to wrap my head around.

The example I just used is how I wrap my head around it

[wrestlingfan22]

https://www.flowrestling.org/rankings/7927889-2022-ncaa-recruiting-class-rankings/42165-2022-ncaa-recruiting-class-rankings

ISU's class for anyone interested

[Truzzcat]

2 minutes ago, wrestlingfan22 said:

An example I would use is PSU's class of 2022, which was just #9 Haines and was unranked by Flo. Haines alone has outscored #2 ISU's entire recruiting class at NCAAs by 23 Points. So even though that ISU class has brought 3 AA performances from 3 different guys to Ames, Levi alone has been more valuable

That's a super valid point. My counter argument would be the idea of having more bullets in the chamber. At the time of his recruitment nobody was predicting levi to be a true freshman national finalist, I believe he got beaten to make the u20 team by some squirrely looking kid from Wisconsin. So I think having more kids in that 5-25 range leads to a higher probability of hitting the lottery so to speak. Now in the case of Melvin though, I think you know what his floor is and that's probably a 4 time AA so you can more easily bake in guaranteed points in a class that does not offer much of that.

[Truzzcat]

Side note I am pretty sure that not one of the guys from Iowas 2022 class are still on the team.

[Spencerlee]

Iowas class is objectively better than VTs

[wrestlingfan22]

17 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

That's a super valid point. My counter argument would be the idea of having more bullets in the chamber. At the time of his recruitment nobody was predicting levi to be a true freshman national finalist, I believe he got beaten to make the u20 team by some squirrely looking kid from Wisconsin. So I think having more kids in that 5-25 range leads to a higher probability of hitting the lottery so to speak. Now in the case of Melvin though, I think you know what his floor is and that's probably a 4 time AA so you can more easily bake in guaranteed points in a class that does not offer much of that.

Yes, I am not saying that was a bad ranking since Levi was not expected to be this good. It is more the idea of if you have 4 guys that you give a 50% chance of combining for 4 AAs, is that better than 1 guy you give a 75% chance of being a 3x AA? Mathematically, you get more AAs on average with the second option, but that means you can't miss on your evaluation of that guy. 

[Nak21]

Lots of ways you can probably do this. My personal favorite - waiting 3-5 yrs and going back and seeing how they’ve performed collegiately. The example of unranked 2022 PSU with just #9 Haines already at this point of his career with still a season to go, out scoring by himself, the entire #2 ISU class…is why I say wait and see. 

[wrestlingfan22]

25 minutes ago, Truzzcat said:

Side note I am pretty sure that not one of the guys from Iowas 2022 class are still on the team.

Jace Rhodes is still there, but I think he's the only one

[wrestlingfan22]

Just now, Nak21 said:

Lots of ways you can probably do this. My personal favorite - waiting 3-5 yrs and going back and seeing how they’ve performed collegiately. The example of unranked 2022 PSU with just #9 Haines already at this point of his career with still a season to go, out scoring by himself, the entire #2 ISU class…is why I say wait and see. 

[Spencerlee]

6 minutes ago, wrestlingfan22 said:

Jace Rhodes is still there, but I think he's the only one

Fleshman is still there

[wrestlingfan22]

20 minutes ago, Spencerlee said:

Fleshman is still there

good catch

[Jon_Kozak]

20 hours ago, Truzzcat said:

There was a pretty good discourse on FRL today about how you should rank recruiting classes. The main talking point was if you should rank them based on the recruits themselves or overall impact they have on the team. This was brought up because V-tech has an immediate point scorer in Melvin Miller but an overall weaker class based on current body of work than PSU. Another point that was brought up was PSU's depth could inhibit these guys from being 4 year starters or even in the lineup at all which hurts their impact on the team from a cumulative point scoring perspective. I understand this, but I do not think that's how recruiting classes could be done. Its a similar argument to not ranking freshman based on a body of work in freestyle (which I tend to agree with). We know what these kids have done in high school up to this point, there is no way to know what PSU's lineup will be in 2028, how much these kids improve once they get to college, or how much they grow. All that we have to go off of his their current accomplishments so I do not think it is fair to rank them based on lineup fit issues however reasonable they may be.

@Jon_Kozak I was driving back to work over lunch so did not hear if you interjected in on this at all

wondering what you guys think on the topic.


 

 

I think there's merit in both approaches, but I think I favor ranking the class based on overall talent. Projecting weight classes and years in the starting lineup is pretty challenging. Beyond that, Penn State has shown they've been able to work all of that talent into the lineup in creative ways between greyshirts, redshirts, medicals, etc. 

[TAC]

I looked and looked at it. I totally disagree with what flo did. PSU should be 1. More guys in the top 10. More guys with potential to impact the roster at some point and score more points at Nationals at some point.  Using JD's criteria, the number 1 ranked wrestler will give the class too much clout.  Miller is really good, but I am not penciling him as a national champion as a true frosh.  I hope flo tries to be a little more partial and look at the big picture....overall class, not 1 guy.

[flyingcement]

2 hours ago, Jon_Kozak said:

I think there's merit in both approaches, but I think I favor ranking the class based on overall talent. Projecting weight classes and years in the starting lineup is pretty challenging. Beyond that, Penn State has shown they've been able to work all of that talent into the lineup in creative ways between greyshirts, redshirts, medicals, etc. 

Flo is really lucky to have a brand ambassador like you.  Thanks for always engaging in good faith!  

[MPhillips]

4 minutes ago, TAC said:

PSU should be 1.

We all know this. Why the bother...

[Pinnacle]

2 hours ago, Jon_Kozak said:

Penn State has shown they've been able to work all of that talent into the lineup in creative ways between greyshirts, redshirts, medicals, etc. 

And Olympic redshirts...

Then full stop. 

Look at PSU 157. Based on Kasak and Sealey are you discounting PJ Duke? That would be silly.

Both Kasak and Duke are likely to wrestle 4 NCAA Tournaments in a PSU singlet.

[TAC]

1 hour ago, Pinnacle said:

And Olympic redshirts...

Then full stop. 

Look at PSU 157. Based on Kasak and Sealey are you discounting PJ Duke? That would be silly.

Both Kasak and Duke are likely to wrestle 4 NCAA Tournaments in a PSU singlet.

On that note, I do think it will be a challenge to fit in Sealy with factoring in Henkle at 174 and J James coming in next year at either 65 or 74 . Just not enough spots as Kaysak will have 2 years left, Duke with 4, Henkle with 4 and James with 5.  I beleive all four of those guys will win National titles down the road.

[Nak21]

19 hours ago, TAC said:

On that note, I do think it will be a challenge to fit in Sealy with factoring in Henkle at 174 and J James coming in next year at either 65 or 74 . Just not enough spots as Kaysak will have 2 years left, Duke with 4, Henkle with 4 and James with 5.  I beleive all four of those guys will win National titles down the road.

I think of the guys you mentioned, Sealy is odd man out. The others will all get their 3-4 yrs with all sorts of roster management across 2-3 weights. Sealy I don’t think makes the cut.

[Jon_Kozak]

On 12/18/2025 at 6:11 PM, Pinnacle said:

Look at PSU 157. Based on Kasak and Sealey are you discounting PJ Duke? That would be silly.

I'm not sure what you mean here. JD had Penn State ranked #1 in the 2025 recruiting class rankings that included Marcus Blaze, PJ Duke, Will Henckel, Asher Cunningham, Nate Desmond, and Dalton Perry. He also had Penn State ranked #1 in 2024 with Luke Lilledahl, Zack Ryder, Joe Sealey, Connor Mirasola, and Cole Mirasola.