Updated Team Race Rankings Based on Individual Ranks - Cornell. Ever heard of it? Edition

[Wrestleknownothing]

At the risk of distracting from the dirtiest thread on the Intermat forum, I give you the latest updated team rankings based on the intersection  of Intermat, Flo and Wrestlestat rankings and expected points scored by seed based on NCAA tournaments from 2010 - 2022.

It has been suggested in another thread that Cornell could finish as high as second this year.

So let's focus on The Big Red Bears this week.

 

 

Depending on who you believe Cornell looks to come in 4th or 5th based on their current rankings. But the margins are pretty tight in both directions. 

Sometimes it is best to average predictions. So let's do that. Here Cornell stands 4th. But to quote Satchell Page, "don't look back, someone may be gaining on you". Cornell edges out Nebraska in 5th but has a manageable gap to cover to catch Missouri in 3rd. Even Iowa up in 2nd is not out of the question. Which makes me think, I need to work on some sense of probabilistic ranges around these averages. Stay tuned.

 

Of much less interest is the title race. Here Iowa has closed the gap a tad on PSU. Last week the gap between PSU and Iowa stood at 35.2 points on average. This week, after everyone realized that neither team can score from neutral, the gap has edged down to 31.7 on average.

[Offthemat]

How did last year’s end of January rankings relate to actual results?

[Wrestleknownothing]

Got me. I just started doing this with rankings this year.

Last year was the first time I did anything with the data and I used the actual seeds to come up with predictions for the tournament. Then I updated the predictions based on each session's results. I got the first four positions correct. Nebraska and Northwestern did much, much better than I predicted. I had them at #14 and #16, respectively. They finished #5 and #6.

[Offthemat]

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

[Wrestleknownothing]

16 minutes ago, Offthemat said:

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

Are you volunteering?

[11986]

kind of all over the place with Pitt. Ranked 6, 10, and 16 across the 3 rankers. And I can see them placing 6th, maybe even a bit higher; can also see 16th or below if one or two key guys fall short. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

24 minutes ago, 11986 said:

kind of all over the place with Pitt. Ranked 6, 10, and 16 across the 3 rankers. And I can see them placing 6th, maybe even a bit higher; can also see 16th or below if one or two key guys fall short. 

Yes, they are all over the place on Cole Matthews and Dayton Pitzer.

Cole Matthews is still #1 on Wrestlestat while Intermat has him #3 and Flo has him #6. Flo does not even include Dayton Pitzer in their rankings as his red-shirt/not red-shirt status could still go either way (only 3 match days), but Intermat and Wrestlestat include him in their rankings.

[Wrestleknownothing]

This isn't exactly right yet, but it gives you a general idea of the range of expected outcomes for the current top 10 teams as ranked by Intermat (but using my expected points). The expected points are the red line in the middle of the orange area for each team. The areas are based on the average plus and minus one standard deviation.

And therein lies the rub. Standard deviations assume that the data is normally distributed. It is not. For example, PSU has more downside than upside, but this math treats them as equally probable. I may fix that in the future (or I may not - I am fickle that way).

I just think this is more interesting because it allows every fan base to see the likely best from their team. For example, if PSU underperforms their seed it will still take an above average performance from Iowa to take the title, but it can be done.

The race for second through fourth is much more up for grabs. Missouri and/or Cornell can overcome Iowa's advantage with an above average performance even if Iowa wrestles to seed.

Caveat: Take it for what it is worth. A big pile of numbers, some mental masturbation, and voila. To quote my father, figures never lie, but liars always figure.

[Offthemat]

I see you’re not using the coach’s poll. 

[ionel]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

 

 

So you are saying Missouri has a chance? 

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, Offthemat said:

I see you’re not using the coach’s poll. 

Not yet. There were too many top guys missing due to match count (Lee, RBY, Diakomihalis, etc). When they put out the next one that should not be an issue, so I will start including that poll then.

[Wrestleknownothing]

25 minutes ago, ionel said:

So you are saying Missouri has a chance? 

Show me.

[ionel]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Show me.

Its thin but ...

[Wrestleknownothing]

14 minutes ago, ionel said:

Its thin but ...

You will be hearing from my lawyers.

[dragit]

This thread should be locked.  Thought provoking, relevant, well written, substantive original post followed by topical, entertaining, and good faith back and forth.  WTF?