What Happens When You Qualify Ten?

[Wrestleknownothing]

I found a new visualization that I wanted to experiment with, so here goes.

Looking at the 16 and 33 seed era (2014-2025) and filtering down to teams that qualified all ten wrestlers (35 teams), I took a look at what their average seed was (thin vertical black line to the far right in each row), and how they performed relative to that seed (red/green bars).

No real surprise here. The higher the average seed, the easier it is to beat the seed. But there are no guarantees, as two of the worst performances came from teams in the bottom quarter.

[Wrestleknownothing]

Someone asked me about the broader trend.

Using the past 11 tournaments, here is how teams who average at least 6 wrestlers per tournament have performed relative to their seeds.

[steamboat_charlie]

The second chart is interesting.  Two takeaways from that at a glance:

1) The old PAC schools were underrated, historically speaking.  Presumably due to lack of competition and rankers not respecting their schedules.  Kind of doubt that will still be the case moving forward.  

and

2) Big 10 guys in the middle tier of their respective weight classes tend to outperform seeds.  I think people are generally aware of this--a Big 10 wrestler with a ~.500 record can still be quite dangerous at NCAAs, but will probably be seeded in the 20's.  Interesting to see some data backing it up.  

[timmythesupermonkey]

My poor Wolfpack! 

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, timmythesupermonkey said:

My poor Wolfpack! 

Good news / bad news?

They had a rough 8 year stretch from 2016 - 2024 where they underperformed each year. But they snapped back nicely in 2025, beating their average seed by 1.1 spots.

That also means Iowa now has the longest active streak of underperforming seed at 5 straight years.

Edited Friday at 08:01 PM by Wrestleknownothing

[AgaveMaria]

If Penn State and Minnehaha are used as the examples you underperform at The Big Dance.

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, AgaveMaria said:

If Penn State and Minnehaha are used as the examples you underperform at The Big Dance.

Simpleton

[Cornell Kevin]

Cornell did actually qualify all 10 guys in 2024 as well as 2025, however Vince Cornella withdrew shortly before the tournament in order to have reconstructive knee surgery. 
 

This is great stuff, can’t get enough of it, keep it coming!