Points In The Portal (Portable Points?)

[Wrestleknownothing]

With ramped up transfer activity, and pending activity, it got me thinking about the returning points graphic I did last year with color coded sources. I started building the data and it struck me how few returning points are actually up for grabs in the portal this year.

For returning points I am being strict in the definition. This is based on points scored in the 2025 tournament. I know if it is your team you want to put on those rose colored glasses and talk about the most points the wrestler has ever scored (sorry Richie Figueroa), or what you think they are capable of scoring (everyone is a potential finalist in someone's opinion).

Only 25.5 returning points have transferred so far (1.8% of all points scored). And only 26 remaining points are looking for a new home. There are 51.5 total points (3.6%) looking to, or already, transferred (vs. last year 120.5 or 8.4%).

That's it. 

Everything else is about potential, that most elusive of mistresses.

[Wrestleknownothing]

Those 120.5 transferred points from 2024?

They scored 111.5 points in 2025.

But it was a tale of two cities.

• In Stillwater the four transfers each exceeded their 2024 total in 2025. In aggregate they beat their prior year points by 33.
• In Iowa City one transfer exceeded his 2024 total and two missed, for an aggregate 20 fewer points in 2025.

[Wrestleknownothing]

In general there are fewer returning points this year. A lot fewer.

Last year 196 wrestlers who scored 1,066.5 points (out of 1,437.5, 74.2%) returned in 2025.

This year 206 wrestlers who scored 863.5 points (out of 1438, 60%) return for 2026.

[1032004]

5 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

With ramped up transfer activity, and pending activity, it got me thinking about the returning points graphic I did last year with color coded sources. I started building the data and it struck me how few returning points are actually up for grabs in the portal this year.

For returning points I am being strict in the definition. This is based on points scored in the 2025 tournament. I know if it is your team you want to put on those rose colored glasses and talk about the most points the wrestler has ever scored (sorry Richie Figueroa), or what you think they are capable of scoring (everyone is a potential finalist in someone's opinion).

Only 25.5 returning points have transferred so far (1.8% of all points scored). And only 26 remaining points are looking for a new home. There are 51.5 total points (3.6%) looking to, or already, transferred (vs. last year 120.5 or 8.4%).

That's it. 

Everything else is about potential, that most elusive of mistresses.

Good stuff as always.

So AJ accounts for the majority of the points transferred right? Side note, I just noticed the Penn State wrestling club now requires a membership to view their postseason scoring data, that’s crap.

Totally get your definition, but it does seem like a bit of an outlier for 2 previous top 3 finishers to transfer that did not compete at all this season.

[Wrestleknownothing]

31 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Good stuff as always.

So AJ accounts for the majority of the points transferred right? Side note, I just noticed the Penn State wrestling club now requires a membership to view their postseason scoring data, that’s crap.

Totally get your definition, but it does seem like a bit of an outlier for 2 previous top 3 finishers to transfer that did not compete at all this season.

AJ Ferrari (13.5) and Lachlan McNeil (12) account for about half the points.

[Wrestleknownothing]

41 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Good stuff as always.

So AJ accounts for the majority of the points transferred right? Side note, I just noticed the Penn State wrestling club now requires a membership to view their postseason scoring data, that’s crap.

Totally get your definition, but it does seem like a bit of an outlier for 2 previous top 3 finishers to transfer that did not compete at all this season.

Last year there was Alirez (2nd) and Van Ness (3rd) that I can recall.

[scourge165]

8 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

With ramped up transfer activity, and pending activity, it got me thinking about the returning points graphic I did last year with color coded sources. I started building the data and it struck me how few returning points are actually up for grabs in the portal this year.

For returning points I am being strict in the definition. This is based on points scored in the 2025 tournament. I know if it is your team you want to put on those rose colored glasses and talk about the most points the wrestler has ever scored (sorry Richie Figueroa), or what you think they are capable of scoring (everyone is a potential finalist in someone's opinion).

Only 25.5 returning points have transferred so far (1.8% of all points scored). And only 26 remaining points are looking for a new home. There are 51.5 total points (3.6%) looking to, or already, transferred (vs. last year 120.5 or 8.4%).

That's it. 

Everything else is about potential, that most elusive of mistresses.

How much does that number go up if you just include past finishes.

Just two years ago you have a NC and Runner-Up transferring. 

[Eagle26]

Always appreciate the data from WKN! But I have to agree this year is a bit of an outlier with “returning points” being much lower than it should be. Welsh was a runner up as a true freshman and Elam is a four time AA and both did not even compete last year, so they add zero points. I think we all agree (except for maybe one guy) that Figs is likely to score a lot more points than he did this year too. So just those three really skew the data. Plus a lot of other guys that we know have potential but just didn’t have an opportunity yet.

[1032004]

9 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Last year there was Alirez (2nd) and Van Ness (3rd) that I can recall.

I was referring to just those who transferred (the ones @Eagle26 pointed out in particular), although I suppose you are presenting this as evidence of previously high placing guys not competing but also not transferring?

[Wrestleknownothing]

8 hours ago, scourge165 said:

How much does that number go up if you just include past finishes.

Just two years ago you have a NC and Runner-Up transferring. 

Do you mean best past finish? The numbers do include last year's (past) finish.

[Wrestleknownothing]

54 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I was referring to just those who transferred (the ones @Eagle26 pointed out in particular), although I suppose you are presenting this as evidence of previously high placing guys not competing but also not transferring?

Because I focus on the ratio adding something to the numerator that is not accounted for in the denominator becomes problematic. But if you have a list of redshirts from last year that are returning this year, it is certainly doable.

[Wrestleknownothing]

3 hours ago, Eagle26 said:

Always appreciate the data from WKN! But I have to agree this year is a bit of an outlier with “returning points” being much lower than it should be. Welsh was a runner up as a true freshman and Elam is a four time AA and both did not even compete last year, so they add zero points. I think we all agree (except for maybe one guy) that Figs is likely to score a lot more points than he did this year too. So just those three really skew the data. Plus a lot of other guys that we know have potential but just didn’t have an opportunity yet.

I get the case for Welsh, but not necessarily Elam and Figueroa. Elam was injured. Even though he is a four time AA we have plenty of examples of injuries taking their toll over time and results suffering as a result. And Figueroa did what Figueroa did. As a defending champ he went 1-2, I am not sure it is safe to say he will become a champ again. So using his high point doesn't make a lot of sense. As Bill Parcells said, "you are what your record says you are". And his current record says 1-2 with both loses to guys who failed to AA.

[Wrestleknownothing]

Does anyone know if Lucas Byrd is wrestling his 7th year? I had him as not returning in the numbers above, but it occurred to me that he has another year of eligibility.

If he returns then it is 207 wrestlers returning who scored 885.5 points (61.6%), still far below last year's number.

Edited April 9 by Wrestleknownothing

[1032004]

11 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Because I focus on the ratio adding something to the numerator that is not accounted for in the denominator becomes problematic. But if you have a list of redshirts from last year that are returning this year, it is certainly doable.

But there’s also less guys in the portal than in total right?

So of guys who were in the portal, you have Welsh, Elam, Ghadiali, Swiderski, and Volk who regular or medical redshirted this year but were AA’s in 2024.

Of guys not in the portal, you have Bastida, Crookham, Stanich, Watters, Echemendia, Cardenas, not sure if I missed anyone.

Seems to me the ratio of AA’s who missed this season in the portal is much higher than AA’s who missed this season that are not in the portal.

[Gene Mills Fan]

I would be interested in team name, then their total returning point(getters) and the points they have earned in the past(no matter when). maybe  an * or TP for newbies from the Portal! But who am I to ask? Or a little red Corvette 

[Ragu]

23 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Does anyone know if Lucas Byrd is wrestling his 7th year? I had him as not returning in the numbers above, but it occurred to me that he has another year of eligibility.

If he returns then it is 207 wrestlers returning who scored 885.5 points (61.6%), still far below last year's number.

In an interview he stated that he’s not even totally sure he has the year, he does, or how to go about getting it and using it. Presumably that means if he gets it he probably uses it

[scourge165]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Do you mean best past finish? The numbers do include last year's (past) finish.

Sure, of...just the guys who are transferring this year, their collective points two years ago. 

[Eagle26]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

I get the case for Welsh, but not necessarily Elam and Figueroa. Elam was injured. Even though he is a four time AA we have plenty of examples of injuries taking their toll over time and results suffering as a result. And Figueroa did what Figueroa did. As a defending champ he went 1-2, I am not sure it is safe to say he will become a champ again. So using his high point doesn't make a lot of sense. As Bill Parcells said, "you are what your record says you are". And his current record says 1-2 with both loses to guys who failed to AA.

Like you said… it’s all about potential. Even the guys who are returning National champs from this year are not guaranteed to score that again next year (see Figueroa). I think it’s likely Rocky and Figs will both be high AAs next year, but you never know. Past success has generally been a pretty good indicator of future success (although this year not as much). I totally understand you have to set parameters and it’s definitely interesting to see the lack of retuning points in the portal. 
 

Maybe a fun analysis sometime would be to see how retuning AAs did at the NCAA tournament? I’ve wondered if that’s a better indicator of success than say having a top 8 seed. This year I doubt it was, but in recent years I remember some returning AAs being seeded in the teens/twenties and pulling it off again 

[Wrestleknownothing]

This is neither here nor there, but someone on HVI asked about how the tournament is scored and whether there is always the same number of advancement and placement points. The answer is yes since 2013.

But these questions always get me thinking about edge cases. And there is a beautiful one in 2024.

Vince Cornella received an at-large bid at 141 in 2024, but due to injury was unable to compete. Jacob Brya, the first alternate, did not wind up taking his place so the bracket was 32 instead of the usual 33. Since the bracket is now scored as a 32 man bracket with a pigtail, that meant Gradner-Webb's #32 Todd Carter received a forfeit in the championship pigtail round worth 3 points (1 advancement + 2 bonus). He then lost to #1 seed Jesse Mendez and #16 seed Dylan Chappell. 

Todd Carter went 0-2 but still scored 3 team points.

[1032004]

18 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

AJ Ferrari (13.5) and Lachlan McNeil (12) account for about half the points.

So UNC is +1.5!

[Wrestleknownothing]

20 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

So UNC is +1.5!

Or....

McNeil has not announced a destination yet. What if he transfers to North Carolina? Rob Koll with the double whammy.

[1032004]

4 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Or....

McNeil has not announced a destination yet. What if he transfers to North Carolina? Rob Koll with the double whammy.

Does it count as a transfer if you stay at the same school?

[Leg rider]

14 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Or....

McNeil has not announced a destination yet. What if he transfers to North Carolina? Rob Koll with the double whammy.

Those two by themselves would have placed 17th last year