Who Gets McEnelly, Ferrari or Arnold?

[1032004]

31 minutes ago, 666 said:

Nothing is guaranteed at NCAAs, but I think there's going to be a fair gap between Iowa and the 3rd place team. 

I’d probably pick OSU to get 2nd at this point IMO

[666]

13 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I’d probably pick OSU to get 2nd at this point IMO

Interesting. Give me your take, if you don't mind. I have at least 5 Hawkeyes making AA, with another 3 with a strong shot (Kennedy, Keuter, Arnold).  With OSU I've got 4 "lock" AAs (Amine, Hamiti, Plott, Hendrickson) with 3 "maybes" (R12/low AA) Surber, Spratley, Jamison, and 2 other possible R16/low AA types (Young, Fish). I have zero faith in Witcraft and think he'll totally fade by the end. I don't think any of OSU's guys will make it to the finals, but even if they do I don't think they win any NCAA titles. I think Ayala wins the NCAA title this year at 133. I think Iowa will have finalists or 3rd placers at 149, 165, and 197 pounds. I think Iowa will finish well ahead of OSU at NCAAs, provided OSU doesn't overperform. 

[BruceyB]

1 hour ago, 666 said:

Interesting. Give me your take, if you don't mind. I have at least 5 Hawkeyes making AA, with another 3 with a strong shot (Kennedy, Keuter, Arnold).  With OSU I've got 4 "lock" AAs (Amine, Hamiti, Plott, Hendrickson) with 3 "maybes" (R12/low AA) Surber, Spratley, Jamison, and 2 other possible R16/low AA types (Young, Fish). I have zero faith in Witcraft and think he'll totally fade by the end. I don't think any of OSU's guys will make it to the finals, but even if they do I don't think they win any NCAA titles. I think Ayala wins the NCAA title this year at 133. I think Iowa will have finalists or 3rd placers at 149, 165, and 197 pounds. I think Iowa will finish well ahead of OSU at NCAAs, provided OSU doesn't overperform. 

Spratley has a lot of variability. But he is likely a mid-AA with finalist potential.

Jamison has a win over Hardy this year and can beat anyone not in the top 3 (or apparently Happel) but he should be a mid-to low AA

Fish probably doesn't place, but put him on the backside early and let him pick up some bonus on his way to R12

Cam Amine will bore us all to a mid-AA finish

Hamiti will finish top 4 with finalist potential

Plott is the third best guy at this weight, I don't know if McEnelly is beating him this year.

Surber looks like an AA this year, even if he can't shoot.

Hendrickson will score more points than anyone on the Iowa roster at NCAAs even while taking 3rd.

I do agree that if Iowa's big 5 wrestle to seed, they will be hard to beat with five top 3 finishers. But it should be a fun race for second.

 

[1032004]

8 hours ago, 666 said:

Interesting. Give me your take, if you don't mind. I have at least 5 Hawkeyes making AA, with another 3 with a strong shot (Kennedy, Keuter, Arnold).  With OSU I've got 4 "lock" AAs (Amine, Hamiti, Plott, Hendrickson) with 3 "maybes" (R12/low AA) Surber, Spratley, Jamison, and 2 other possible R16/low AA types (Young, Fish). I have zero faith in Witcraft and think he'll totally fade by the end. I don't think any of OSU's guys will make it to the finals, but even if they do I don't think they win any NCAA titles. I think Ayala wins the NCAA title this year at 133. I think Iowa will have finalists or 3rd placers at 149, 165, and 197 pounds. I think Iowa will finish well ahead of OSU at NCAAs, provided OSU doesn't overperform. 

To be honest I haven’t done the math I just feel like Iowa has more risk, I have a bad feeling about Teemer especially.  But I’ll do it now, and admittedly I’m not a pro at estimating scores by placement:

Cruz R16 - 2

Ayala 3rd - 17

141 0

Parco 3rd - 17

Teemer semi slide to 6th - 10

Caliendo 2nd - 20

174 8th - 6

Arnold R12 - 4

Buchanan 2nd - 20

Kueter 8th - 6

Total 102

 

Spratley 3rd - 16

133 1-2 - 1

Jamison R12 - 4

Young R16 - 2

Fish R12 - 4

Amine 5th - 10

Hamiti 2nd (beats a not 100% O’Toole) - 21

Plott 3rd - 16

Surber 7th - 8

Hendrickson 3rd - 21

Total 103