Interesting trends for Dems and Repubs alike

[mspart]

https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/farewell-to-the-rising-american-electorate

Discuss

mspart

[neutral]

Nothing to discuss.  We lost.  You own the libs.  The war is over and the enemy won.

[Offthemat]

Maybe the improvements to education that are in line from this administration can carry the emphasis on race right on out of the calculation.  Reminds me of Morgan Freeman:

 

[Bigbrog]

15 hours ago, neutral said:

Nothing to discuss.  We lost.  You own the libs.  The war is over and the enemy won.

You truly view someone that thinks politically differently than you as the "enemy"??

[WrestlingRasta]

3 minutes ago, Bigbrog said:

You truly view someone that thinks politically differently than you as the "enemy"??

Unfortunately there are a whooooole lot of people that think that way these days. 

Edited Friday at 04:56 PM by WrestlingRasta

[uncle bernard]

5 minutes ago, Bigbrog said:

You truly view someone that thinks politically differently than you as the "enemy"??

Pot calling the kettle black

[mspart]

Here are the trends from that website:

Here are data that illustrate the scale of decline since Obama vanquished Mitt Romney in 2012. For this exercise, I use the Catalist data from 2012, the best retrospective data available, and compare it to the demographic group estimates from AP VoteCast, the best 2024 election data currently available. (It would be preferable to use 2024 Catalist data for this comparison but their data are not yet available.)

Nonwhite voters overall. Obama carried these voters by 64 points; Harris carried them by 34 points. Democratic decline: 30 points.

Black voters. Obama carried black voters in 2012 by an amazing 93 points. Harris managed only a 67-point margin. Democratic decline: 26 points.

Latino voters. Obama carried Latinos by 39 points, Harris by just 12 points. Democratic decline: 27 points. It is interesting that the overall decline since 2012 is quite similar between blacks and Latinos; however, essentially all of the decline for Latinos was post-2016 while the black decline has been more or less continuous.

Working-class (non-college) voters overall. Obama was the last Democratic presidential candidate to carry the working class as a whole (3-point margin). But Harris lost them solidly by 13 points. Democratic decline: 16 points.

White working-class voters. The traditional trouble spot for Democrats; Obama lost them by 20 points, which goes up to 30 points in this election. Democratic decline: 10 points—which is a substantial and very consequential decline among a huge voter group. However, that decline pales in magnitude when compared to the decline among nonwhite working class voters.

Nonwhite working class voters. Obama cleaned up among nonwhite working-class voters, carrying them by 67 points in 2012. This election the margin was down to 32 points, cutting the Democratic advantage by more than half. Democratic decline: 35 points.

Black working-class voters. Black working-class voters gave Obama a 94-point margin in 2012, actually higher than among their college-educated counterparts. But in 2024, the Democratic margin among the black working class—64 points—was lower than among the college-educated, reversing the class polarity of the black vote. Democratic decline: 30 points.

Latino working class voters. These voters gave Obama a 43-point advantage, much higher than among the Latino college-educated. In 2024 this crashed to a mere 8-point advantage for Harris. Democratic decline: 35 points, two and a half times the decline among the Hispanic college-educated.

Young voters. Obama carried voters under 30 by 23 points; this election Harris managed only a 4-point advantage among this age group to the shock of most, particularly Democratic, observers. Democratic decline: 19 points.

Of course, this is comparing an age group that had a different generational composition in the two elections. But this should provide little comfort to Democrats. The 18-29 year old age group in this election was composed almost entirely of Gen Z voters, supposedly the leading edge of a generational shift that would make the voting pool ever more Democratic. In 2012, the 18-29 year olds who provided Obama’s 23 point margin were all members of the Millennial generation. In 2024, those voters are now entirely contained in the 30-44 year old age group, where Harris eked out only a 3-point advantage. So much for the generational theory of political dominance.

Young black voters. Black voters under 30 gave Obama a 92-point margin in 2012. Harris carried them by only 50 points. Democratic decline: 42 points(!) The decline was almost as large among black voters 30-44.

Young Latino voters. In 2012, Obama dominated Hispanic voters under 30 by 54 points. Harris’s margin among these voters was just 17 points. Democratic decline: 37 points.

Male black voters. While black female voters have also shifted right over time, the shift among black men has been far larger—almost three times the size. In 2012, Obama carried black men by 91 points; Harris’ margin crashed to 49 points in 2024. Democratic decline: 42 points.

Male Latino voters. Latino men have also shifted harder right than their female counterparts. Obama enjoyed a 32-point advantage among Hispanic men in 2012. In this election, Harris was essentially tied among these voters, carrying them by only single percentage point. Democratic decline: 31 points.

Discuss.

mspart

[Offthemat]

His data shows that there is movement towards equilibrium among generally racially and sexually identified groups.  It doesn’t delve into the dynamics within the groups, such as are they generational members or are they recent arrivals.  As Thomas Sowell pointed out, there is often more variation among siblings as between groups.  How often do brothers live, vote, and prosper very differently?

[mspart]

The movement among these racially and behaviorally identified people that are so important to the Ds shows they are not drinking the Kool Aid in the numbers they did in the past.   They are thinking individuals who do not vote or reason as a voting bloc but as individuals.   That is the issue that the Ds miss in their identity politics.   They need to focus less on color and more on individual and policy that will benefit such an individual.  

They assume Blacks will vote for them lockstep.   That proved not the case.

They assumed Latinos would vote for them lockstep due to the open border.   That proved not the case

ETC.

mspart

[Offthemat]

2 minutes ago, mspart said:

The movement among these racially and behaviorally identified people that are so important to the Ds shows they are not drinking the Kool Aid in the numbers they did in the past.   They are thinking individuals who do not vote or reason as a voting bloc but as individuals.   That is the issue that the Ds miss in their identity politics.   They need to focus less on color and more on individual and policy that will benefit such an individual.  

They assume Blacks will vote for them lockstep.   That proved not the case.

They assumed Latinos would vote for them lockstep due to the open border.   That proved not the case

ETC.

mspart

Eggs ackly.